I have bets on multiple preseason games tonight, so let's get straight into my NFL predictions.
Browns vs Panthers Potential Live Bet
Shedeur Sanders will start for the Browns tonight and is expected to play well into the second half. Cleveland recently brought in Tyler Huntley, who should close out the game. This is Sanders’ first chance to make a statement to the league after sliding to the fifth round in the draft, and he should have plenty of motivation here. The Browns will rest their starters otherwise, so it’ll be Sanders and the second/third units for most of the game.
The Panthers plan to play Bryce Young and the starters for 1-2 series before giving way to Andy Dalton and the second unit. That gives Carolina a leg up for the 1st half and the overall game outlook, at least early on. However, once we get to the second half, they’ll likely turn things over to Jack Plummer and the 3rd unit.
Plummer was surprisingly decent for an UDFA last preseason, but still struggled, taking sacks on 9% of his dropbacks, and given his pedigree, I’m not expecting a major year two leap. In fact, there’s a real chance he regresses a bit this year in terms of efficiency since last summer may have been a slight overachievement.
That sets up a potential Browns edge in the second half. Sanders will already have a full half of work under his belt, followed by Huntley, who has been one of the better preseason quarterbacks in recent years. Huntley’s play was actually a big part of the Ravens’ famous preseason win streak, even if John Harbaugh usually gets all the credit.
Potential Play: If the first half and full-game markets shape up the way I expect, we could get Cleveland +0.5 or better for the second half. That’s the live angle I’m eyeing, but — as always — my view can change depending on how the first half plays out.
Lions vs Falcons Pick
The Lions are expected to take a similar approach as they did in the Hall of Fame game, only with Hendon Hooker starting and playing the first half. Dan Campbell has hinted that Hooker could see an extended look, so I have him projected to get a couple of series into the third quarter before giving way to Kyle Allen. I don’t think that changes their power rating much as both quarterback have very different styles, but I value them about the same. Both were dreadful in the Hall of Fame game (mostly Hooker), so while they should bounce back a bit here, I’m not expecting them to light it up.
The Falcons are not only resting their starters, but Kirk Cousins isn’t expected to play either. That means it’ll be Easton Stick and Emory Jones splitting the game under center. Stick was brutal last preseason with the Chargers, ranking out of 61 QBs:
PFF Grade: 60th
QB Rating: 60th
Yards/Attempt: 42nd
Turnover-worthy play rate: 4th worst
Jones wasn’t much better in a smaller sample. He’s got big rushing upside, but rarely used his legs last preseason and took a sack on 15% of his dropbacks. The Ravens seemed surprised by Riley Leonard’s mobility last night before adjusting after his first drive. Hopefully, the Lions are more prepared for Jones’ running ability from the start.
All of this points to a low-scoring game. Even for preseason, this is a rough quarterback slate. The total is just 33.5, and 80% of the action is on the over, but I think it’s set appropriately and still lean under. The Ravens/Colts over last night was frustrating as I nailed a lot of the underlying factors (Devin Leary looked awful), but long punt returns set up short fields and helped the game sneak over. The Chargers’ longest punt return last week was two yards, so it’s nice knowing Detroit’s coverage unit might not be a liability in what should be a punt fest. Shawn Hochuli is the head official tonight, and preseason assignments he’s worked have gone under in five of seven games.
Pick: Under 33.5 (-110)
Commanders vs Patriots: Bet This Side Against the Spread
The Commanders aren’t expected to play their starters tonight — even Marcus Mariota is sitting. That leaves Josh Johnson and Sam Hartman at quarterback. Johnson is a 39-year-old journeyman who has routinely produced in the preseason. Last year, out of 61 QBs, he ranked:
PFF Grade: 10th
QB Rating: 7th
Yards/Attempt: 5th
Turnover-worthy play rate: 31st
He’s consistently undervalued this time of year and should get most, if not all, of the first-half snaps.
The Patriots will start Drake Maye and their first-team offense for 1-3 series before giving way to Josh Dobbs. That gives New England a clear edge in the first half and the full-game line reflects it. But in the second half, Dobbs should get a bit of work before handing things over to UDFA Ben Wooldridge (Louisiana).
While Hartman struggled a bit last preseason, I expect some year two improvement, and he should have a slight edge over Wooldridge. That’s the path for Washington here — Johnson keeping it close early, and Hartman taking advantage late if Wooldridge is in mop-up duty.
It’s worth noting there’s been some sharp money on the Patriots, likely due to Maye’s early edge, but I think that overlooks the fact that Wooldridge will have to close things out. That opens the door for a backdoor cover, and now that the line is on the key number of +7, I’m taking the points.
