We close Week 7 with not one, but two Monday Night Football games. We have you covered with NFL predictions.
First, the Baltimore Ravens face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on ESPN at 8:15 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Then, the Los Angeles Chargers take on the Arizona Cardinals on ESPN+ at 9 p.m. from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.
The Ravens-Bucs matchup is between two of the NFL’s best teams so far this season. Both teams are 4-2 and in first place. The Chargers are 3-2 chasing the Chiefs, while the Cardinals need a win to stay in the NFC West race.
NFL Picks for Monday Night Football
Our experts have you covered for both games tonight with picks against the spread, on the total and a player prop — an over! — for both games.
NFL Predictions: Ravens vs. Buccaneers
Against the Spread
Call me crazy, but I think the Bucs are good.
Tampa Bay is the only team in the entire NFL that ranks top 11 both running and passing on both offense and defense. There's no real weak spot on this team. Liam Coen's passing offense is cooking, and now the Bucs are running well for the first time in ages with Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker. Vita Vea and the run defense are stout, and Todd Bowles' defense is playing well now that the secondary is healthy.
Baltimore is really good, but I think the Bucs can slow that devastating rushing attack and turn this game over to the passing — and I trust Baker Mayfield and his star WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin more than Lamar Jackson and his scalawag wide receivers. Jackson is 21-31-1 ATS as a favorite of over three points (40%).
There's also something the numbers just can't capture here, and I'm trusting my gut.
The Bucs return home to Tampa after last week's hurricane devastation, and now we get a home Monday night game in front of an emotional crowd, and I'm just not sure you can put a number to that — perhaps reminiscent of the Saints after Hurricane Katrina years ago.
I think the Bucs hang, and I think they can win outright, so give me Tampa Bay +3.5 and the +165 ML. And if they do win, this might also be the last chance to buy Bucs futures at a discount price.
I lined up my favorite Bucs futures bets in last week's NFC Power Rankings. I have Tampa over 75% to make the playoffs so I love them at -130, and I see value on the division odds (+185) and even the NFC odds (+2200), where I make them closer to 9-10%.
Pick: Buccaneers +4
Over/Under
By Stuckey
I think the total has gone a bit too high for this game. The Bucs probably won't be able to have the same success in the running game that they have of late since they're facing the NFL's best run-stopping unit. That should will force Baker Mayfield into more third-and-long passing situations against a defense that's better than people realize.
You can expect Todd Bowles to bring pressure with the Bucs defense, and you need to against Lamar Jackson. I do think the Tampa Bay defense is better than the numbers would indicate because of some of those aforementioned injuries it dealt with. Maybe you get some Tampa winds too, although the forecast doesn't look too bad as I'm writing this — but it also doesn't hurt that Tampa plays at a pretty slow pace.
Pick: Under 50.5 (-110, bet365)
Player Prop
Zay Flowers has dominated this Baltimore passing game in impressive fashion. He leads the team with a 26.6% target share, and no other player is above 15%. Flowers is coming off a massive 9-catch, 132-yard performance in Week 6.
Flowers has been at or above a 25% target share in all but 1 game: 25%, 35.4%, 26.6%, 11.1%, 29.2% and 36%. The one outlier was the weird Week 4 blowout against Buffalo where Baltimore only threw it 18 times, and half of those attempts went to RBs.
Flowers faces a Tampa Bay defense that has been torched through the air. They have allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game. Starting cornerback Jamel Dean left early in Week 6 with a hamstring injury and could miss this game.
On offense, Tampa Bay seems well-equipped to hang with Baltimore. They just hung 51 points on New Orleans and are now the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league. Opponents keeping pace with the Ravens is important when it comes to the passing game, as Baltimore will look to lean on Derrick Henry if given the opportunity. The Ravens are only 3.5-point favorites, and this game is in Tampa Bay.
Pick: Zay Flowers Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
NFL Predictions: Chargers vs. Cardinals
Against the Spread
Some trends may not be pertinent in handicapping future games, but it worth noting both Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert have done very well against the spread in primetime situations, while Kyler Murray has lost six of his last seven island games at night.
More importantly, the Cardinals defense has been playing very poorly. More than 50% of drives against Arizona have reached the redzone, the highest rate in the league. Whereas, the Chargers have allowed teams to reach the redzone on just 21% of their possessions, which is the lowest rate in the league.
It was a great sign for the health of Justin Herbert that he attempted a season-high in pass attempts last week. This week I expect more of the same against a Cardinals pass defense ranking 31st in both completion percentage allowed and yards per attempt. Arizona will struggle to bother Herbert, ranking last in the league in ESPN's pass rush win rate metric.
It will be crucial for the Cardinals to stay out of long third down situations, as they have converted first downs at the lowest rate in the league when they are behind the sticks. Kyler Murray has yet to pass for a single first down this season when facing third-and-7 or longer. The Chargers should be able to limit the early down running game of Arizona led by James Conner, as this defense has allowed the third-fewest rushing first downs this season and ranks 8th-best on a yards per carry basis.
Pick: Chargers -1 (-110, bet365)
Over/Under
By Billy Ward
I was surprised to see the total at 44 in a Chargers game, given that their the league's best scoring defense while ranking 26th in points scored.
On the other side we have a theoretically-explosive Cardinals offense, that got good news with top wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. clearing concussion protocol ahead of Monday's game.
The market has largely split the difference, with a middling total of 44. I still like the under, though, and there's a few reasons why.
The Chargers offense is built around the run, but Arizona is an above-average run defense. They're terrible against the pass — but the Chargers can't do that anyway. If Los Angeles can't get anything going offensively, Arizona can then slow things down and attack on the ground — which is also their relative weakness offensively.
I also referred to the Cardinals as "theoretically explosive" above. While their passing offense is fun, it's resulted in just 22.2 points per game. That's in games that — by definition — came against weaker offenses than the Chargers. I don't see them going much above their season average when taking on the league's toughest defense.
Pick: Under 44 (-110, bet365)
Player Prop
By Matt Trebby
Michael Wilson has gone over this total in four of the Cardinals’ last five games. He’s gotten at least four targets in three of those and three receptions four times. He’s averaging 3.5 receptions per game, and I think we’d need three for this over to safely hit.
In three of the four games that Wilson hit this over, the Cardinals were playing catchup. That goes in line with how I see this game going.
I have more faith in the Chargers to start this game quickly by running the ball down the Cardinals’ throats. Jim Harbaugh’s team is more likely to have a positive offensive game script in primetime with a bit of extra prep. I obviously lean Chargers -1.5 on the spread, so I expect the Cardinals to consistently be playing catchup.
That means more targets for Wilson. In the four games that the Cardinals have trailed by double digits this season, Wilson is averaging 6.8 targets per game. That will be more than enough for him to hit this.
As of Sunday night, Sean Koerner’s mean projection for this prop was 40 receiving yards. That’s a huge edge that cannot be ignored.
Pick: Michael Wilson Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
