The Houston Texans (9-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) will face off in NFL Week 16 on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. EST from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The game will broadcast live on NBC and can be streamed on Peacock.
The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites over the Texans on the spread (Chiefs -3.5), with the over/under set at 42.5 total points. Kansas City is a -185 favorite to win outright, while Houston is +155 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Chiefs vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks for Saturday afternoon.
Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction, Picks
Spread
I'm backing the Texans to cover. There's too much uncertainty here on the Kansas City side, and the Texans have a knack for keeping games close.
My Pick: Texans +3.5 (-115)
Player Prop Pick
By Matt Trebby
Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 10.5 Rushing Yards
Sean Koerner has Stroud projected for 17 rushing yards, which shows a great edge on the over here. Stroud has gone over this total in eight of his last nine games, and he’s also cleared this total in six of the Texans’ seven road games this season.
Texans vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
- Texans vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -3.5
- Texans vs. Chiefs over/under: 42.5 points scored
- Texans vs. Chiefs moneyline: Chiefs -185, Texans +155
- Texans vs. Chiefs best bet: Texans +3.5 (-115)
MyTexans vs. Chiefs best bet is on Houston, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Texans vs. Chiefs Parlay Picks
- Texans +3.5
- C.J. Stroud Over 10.5 Rushing Yards
You can parlay these picks to get a +224 SGP at DraftKings.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Saturday Preview
The Chiefs are holding on to a two-game lead for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, though with their loss to the second-place Bills, they'll need to finish a full game ahead to get the coveted first-round bye.
Their path looked much tougher last weekend as star quarterback Patrick Mahomes limped off the field late in a 21-7 win over the Browns. All three of the Chiefs' final three opponents are 9-5 or better, and Kansas City would likely be an underdog in all of those games if Carson Wentz were under center.
However, despite initially being viewed as "week-to-week", Mahomes has fully participated in each practice this week. That's caused the line to swing back to Chiefs -3.5 after the Texans were favored by 2.5 early in the week.
I'm not totally convinced.
Kansas City's practices this week were fairly light, per beat reporters, which we'd expect for a short week this late in the season. Mahomes being a "full participant" doesn't necessarily mean he's at full strength.
While a 100% version of Mahomes is worth six points to the spread over Wentz, I'm not so sure that a (potentially) limited version is, especially in this spot.
Houston has the No. 1 defense by DVOA in the league and the second-best pass rush by adjusted sack rate. The only reason the Chiefs' offensive line doesn't grade out lower than their current 18th rank in adjusted sack rate is Mahomes' mobility. While he's not exactly a rushing quarterback, he's one of the better players at adjusting within the pocket to escape pressure.
That's a lot harder if he only has one good ankle, and the same goes for the off-platform throws he's become known for. Kansas City's offense could be in real trouble if it can't throw the ball in this game.
Plus, the Chiefs have been the league's luckiest team, per our Luck Rankings, even with Mahomes at full strength. Only one of their past five wins has been by more than three and that came over the struggling Browns.
I'd probably take the Texans at +3.5 points, even with no injury concern for Mahomes. Any limit to his effectiveness is just a bonus, but a significant one.
I'd play the Texans down to +3.0 at -110, but +3.5 is widely available at this time.
My Pick: Texans +3.5 (-115)
