The Baltimore Ravens (4-2) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) will square off on NFL Monday Night Football Week 7. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., on ESPN. The game can be streamed live on YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
The Ravens are 4-point favorites over the Buccaneers (Ravens -4) with the over/under at 50.5. Baltimore is -210 on the moneyline to win outright at bet365, while Tampa Bay is +175 to pull off the upset.
Baltimore won its fourth straight game, 30-23, over the Commanders last weekend. Derrick Henry opened Week 7 as the NFL's leading rusher, and Lamar Jackson has 10 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in the Ravens' first six games. Tampa Bay won 51-27 last week over the Saints. While Baker Mayfield threw for 325 passing yards, 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving combined for 217 rushing yards.
Let's get into my Ravens vs. Buccaneers prediction and my NFL picks and predictions tonight.
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Prediction
My Buccaneers vs. Ravens best bets are on Baltimore to cover the first-half spread and the under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
My pick: Ravens 1H -1.5 & Under 50.5
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | -210 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | +175 |
- Ravens vs. Buccaneers Spread: Ravens -4
- Ravens vs. Buccaneers Over/Under: 50.5 points scored
- Ravens vs. Buccaneers Moneyline: Ravens -210, Buccaneers +175
- Ravens vs. Buccaneers Best Bet: Ravens 1H -1.5 & Under 50.5
Spread
I think this line is about right, although I'd be interested in Ravens -3, which isn't coming after the spread moved to -4 or -4.5 on Monday afternoon. Instead, I'll be looking to bet Baltimore against the spread in the first half.
Moneyline
I have no bet on the moneyline for this game.
Over/Under
I like the under in this primetime game. Despite these being two of the NFL's best offenses, I think the total has gotten too high in the market. Use our NFL odds page to see if a 49.5 pops up and grab the extra one-half point.
My pick: Ravens 1H -1.5 & Under 50.5
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Betting Trends To Know
- 69% of bets and 69% of the money are on the Ravens to cover the spread.
- 80% of bets and 93% of the money are on the over.
- 74% of bets and 77% of the money on the moneyline are on the Ravens.
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Start Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium |
| Date: | Monday, Oct. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / YouTube TV |
Buccaneers vs. Ravens is scheduled for a 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL, on Monday night. The game is broadcasted live by ESPN and is streaming on YouTube TV.
Ravens vs. Buccaneers NFL Monday Night Football Preview
The Ravens offense is absolutely rolling right now. Early in the season, they had to figure some things out with all of the new moving parts along the offensive line and get Derrick Henry acclimated with the new offense. But after two straight losses to start the season, Baltimore has scored 28 or more each week during its current four-game winning streak. On the season, they rank second in both Success Rate and Adjusted EPA per Play, led by Lamar Jackson, who is once again playing at an MVP level.
The defense hasn't been as dominant as the offense or the historically elite group we saw last year under Mike Macdonald, but they remain one of the stingiest units in the league against the run, ranking No. 1 in Success Rate allowed by a wide margin. For reference, Baltimore sits at 26.6%, while the next-best defense (Chargers) is at 33.3%.
Where the Ravens have been vulnerable is against the pass, ranking 27th in Dropback EPA. However, it's worth noting they have faced some of the best offenses (and quarterbacks) in the NFL to date with a schedule that has included the Comanders, Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Raiders and Cowboys. I actually think their pass defense is much better than market perception.
Look no further than two specific metrics: tight-window throws forced and percentage of open receivers. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL in both. The Ravens secondary is just getting a bit unlucky — although I also think they have taken a step back from a schematic and adjustment perspective after losing so much wit from the defensive staff in the offseason. Speaking of unlucky, no team has been more unlucky from a net penalty perspective than the Ravens, which I'd expect to even out over the course of the season.
This team isn't as good as last year (the special teams are also down a bit), but they are still one of the best teams in the NFL.
While the Bucs also come into this matchup sporting a 4-2 record, they are obviously a significant step below the Ravens from a power ratings perspective. They've also been pretty fortunate in terms of the teams they have faced and when they have faced them. Just take a look at their wins this season: Eagles (without their top offensive line and top two wideouts), Saints (with Spencer Rattler and a host of other injuries), Commanders (in Jayden Daniels' first career start and on the road) and Lions.
Winning at Detroit is obviously a very impressive victory, but it also mostly had to do with the Lions' incompetence in the red zone. In that game, Tampa was out-gained by a whopping 247 yards (463-216). There's a lot of fool's gold in that 4-2 record even with the argument they easily could've won that game in Atlanta.
Don't get me wrong, Baker Mayfield is playing at a high level so far in 2024 (10th in Adjusted EPA+CPOE) in part because of Tampa actually finding a complementary run game this season thanks to the emergence of Bucky Irving (and even Sean Tucker in their last game). It also helps to have a pair of very good receivers, which you need to attack this Baltimore defense.
Speaking of defense, the Bucs have been a bit underwhelming on that side of the ball so far this season, especially against the run, which is obviously problematic against the Ravens. However, I do think their numbers are a bit deflated due to some key injuries they had to deal with, specifically to Antoine Winfield and Vita Vea — two of the best players in the league at their respective positions.
I think this line is about right — although I'd be interested in the Ravens at a reasonable -3 price, which I don't think is coming. If you do want a side in this game, I'd look at the Ravens 1H where Lamar Jackson has been absolutely dominant in his career at 53-28-2 ATS (65.4%), covering by over a field goal per game on average. That makes him the most profitable quarterback in the 1H in NFL history. Jackson has fared even better in the first 30 minutes against the NFC, with an ATS mark of 16-7 (69.6%), covering by over four points per game. I do think there's some truth to the fact that his speed is even more of an advantage against opponents who don't see him as often. It just takes defenses times to adjust, which could partially explain why he owns an absurd 22-1 straight up record against the NFC.
In regards to the total, I do fancy the under. While certainly scary, I do think it has gotten a bit too high in the market. I don't think the Bucs will be able to enjoy the same success on the ground they have of late against the league's top run-stopping unit, which will force Baker Mayfield into more third-and-long passing situations against a secondary that is better than people realize.
On the other side of the ball, you can expect Todd Bowles to bring pressure, which I think you need to do against Lamar Jackson and I do think the Bucs defense is better than its metrics because of some of those aforementioned injuries it dealt with. Maybe you get some Tampa winds too, although the forecast doesn't look too bad as I'm writing this — but it also doesn't hurt that Tampa plays at a pretty slow pace.
Pick: Ravens 1H -1.5 & Under 50.5
NFL Weather
