Welcome to Week 13.
I've got three spots circled for the early window on Saturday, including two monster underdogs and a two-touchdown favorite.
Read on for my Week 13 NCAAF picks and college football predictions, and check out the whole Saturday spots piece below:
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Rutgers +31.5 |
  | 12:45 p.m. | Charlotte +45 |
  | 1 p.m. | James Madison -13.5 |
Rutgers +31.5 at Ohio State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
I personally hate starting my day with the Big Noon game on FOX because it makes me irrationally angry when the game actually begins around 12:15 p.m. ET.
However, that's where we will kick things off in Columbus on Saturday by fading the best team in the country.
For starters, I project this spread at a tad under 30, so I do show value from a pure numbers perspective.
Additionally, it's a pretty decent spot for the Scarlet Knights, who had a bye last week and remain in contention for a bowl bid. That extra time off should benefit Rutgers even more, considering it has dealt with as many injuries as any Power 4 team in 2025.
Meanwhile, Ohio State has already wrapped up a College Football Playoff spot with a trip to Ann Arbor on deck to take on a Michigan team that has won four straight in the heated rivalry.
Could the Buckeyes get caught looking ahead? It's possible, but the more impactful factor might be how they approach this game with the Wolverines up next, followed by the Hoosiers in the Big Ten Championship and, presumably, the College Football Playoff.
No team has been more cognizant of the new, extended grind of the college football season since the playoff expanded. In my opinion, Ryan Day manages the season better than any coach in the country at the moment.
Look no further than Ohio State's snail-like pace. No team in the nation averages more seconds per play. The Buckeyes want to manage workloads and limit injuries ahead of their inevitable annual trip to the CFP.
So, what does that mean this week? Well, there's a decent chance that both Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith will sit out, as each star wide receiver is dealing with a nagging injury.
Smith left last week's game, and Tate hasn't seen the field over the past two contests. I'm just not sure it makes much sense to push either way with the path ahead.
If that's the case, it will undoubtedly make life easier for an abysmal Rutgers defense.
It's also worth mentioning that Rutgers has arguably been the worst defense in the country against running quarterbacks, but Julian Sayin doesn't really offer a significant threat in that department.
Rutgers does at least have a decent offense that I trust to get to somewhere around 14 points, especially with garbage time. That will give it a good shot of staying within the number, given the limited number of possessions in Ohio State games.
I'll call for a 42-14 Buckeyes victory. Keep in mind that UCLA faced a similar number last week with travel and a backup quarterback, while Rutgers is coming off a bye with much less travel.
Given the spot and quarterback situations, I'd have Rutgers four or five points better than the Bruins, who failed to cover after allowing a touchdown in the final minutes.
Pick: Rutgers +31.5 or Better
Charlotte +45 at Georgia
12:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
If Georgia wants to win this game by 55-plus, it will.
Charlotte is horrendous and routinely gets run off the field by American Conference teams. I'm not here to say anything positive about the 49ers, who are not only bad but also beat up.
However, Kirby Smart has historically just not cared about these games. He usually works on refining specific details and keeping guys healthy, while keeping things very vanilla.
I remember a few years ago, against Kent State, Georgia (which won by 17 as 45-point favorites) kept running the same mesh route over and over against drop-eight coverage because I assume Smart wasn't happy with how his offense had been executing that play in game action.
Additionally, once the Dawgs get a big lead, they usually just go into coast mode and kill the game.
It's also possible that Georgia comes out a bit flat for a sleepy early kick time following a huge win over Texas to essentially lock up a CFP berth. Plus, the Bulldogs have a short week before an in-state showdown with Georgia Tech, followed by a potential SEC Championship Game before the playoffs.
It just doesn't make much sense to go all out here and risk key injuries.
Ultimately, I'm banking on Smart approaching the lowly 49ers the way he has all previous doormats. It has treated me well in the past, including last year against UMass in an identical late November spot.
However, if that makes you uncomfortable, I totally understand and would pass on the game. The talent gap in this matchup will be laughable.
I won't pretend to point to anything Charlotte does well on a football field because I don't like lying.
At least Georgia doesn't generate elite pressure, so maybe Charlotte can luck into a few explosive passing plays — although I'm not banking on many points in what hopefully plays out as a 42-3 type of game that completely dies late.
For what it's worth, Smart-led teams are 0-15 ATS as favorites of 38 points or more.
Pick: Charlotte +44 or Better
James Madison -13.5 vs. Washington State
1 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
This late in the season, the market is usually pretty efficient in its power ratings.
As a result, I spend most of my time looking for small edges in terms of matchups, injuries, and spots.
From a pure numbers perspective, I do project this spread at a touch over two touchdowns, so I am fine with laying 13.5 on the surface.
However, other factors are at play that might make James Madison a bit more valuable in this spot, including the not-so-easy coast-to-coast travel from Pullman to Harrisonburg for the Cougars.
After South Florida's loss last week, JMU finds itself squarely in the discussion for a potential College Football Playoff berth. As a result, the Dukes know they must impress the committee as much as possible, especially considering their very underwhelming conference schedule.
We saw that last week against App State when JMU continued to run no-huddle throughout the fourth quarter, even with a 44-3 lead in a game it eventually won 58-10.
Keep in mind that even when JMU pulls starting quarterback Alonza Barnett, it still has a quality option in former UNLV starter Matthew Sluka. If JMU does pull its starters, it will probably be in good shape to win by at least two touchdowns.
Additionally, I do believe Washington State has a bit of an over-inflated power rating after benefiting from several dream scheduling spots throughout the season. For example, Toledo and Louisiana Tech (with a third-string quarterback) never even got off the bus for brutal travel spots in the middle of conference play. And Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin openly admitted he didn't even prepare for the Cougars in a very sleepy scheduling spot.
Lastly, this sets up as a pretty favorable matchup for James Madison on paper.
The Washington State offense is limited, especially against defenses that can exploit its very vulnerable offensive line. On the season, the Cougars rank in the bottom-20 nationally in pressure rate allowed.
Meanwhile, JMU's defense sits in the top-10 in that department.
I'm just not sure how Washington State will sustain any drives. The Cougars may hit a few explosives (which JMU will allow), but it's hard to envision them moving the chains consistently or finishing drives with touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, Washington State does have a feisty defense that excels at limiting explosive plays. However, the Cougars really struggle to contain opposing ground games on a down-to-down basis, which could spell doom against the Dukes, who should have a much easier time sustaining drives from start to finish.
Plus, Barnett has really found his groove of late, as I believe he wasn't fully healthy in the first half of the season.
- First five games: 68-for-116 (58.6%), 667 yards (5.75 ypa), 31 rushes for 85 yards (2.7 ypc)
- Past five games: 91-for-142 (64.1%), 1,422 yards (10.0 ypa), 55 rushes for 311 yards (5.6 ypc)
Admittedly, I usually don't love laying double digits with such a low total between two slow-paced squads, especially when the underdog has played a much more difficult schedule.
However, given the spot, the matchup, and JMU's incentive to maximize the margin, I believe the Dukes are worth a bet.
Pick: James Madison -13.5 or Better
