The Vanderbilt Commodores (2-0) and Georgia State Panthers (1-1) meet on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Vanderbilt is an eight-point favorite against Georgia State, and the over/under is currently 44.5. The Commodores are -310 on the moneyline to win outright.
Vanderbilt is coming off a 55-0 victory over Alcorn State while Georgia State is coming off a three-point victory over Chattanooga, 24-21.
Continue reading for my Vanderbilt vs Georgia State predictions below and my college football picks and predictions for Week 3.
Vanderbilt vs Georgia State Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -112 | 44.5 -108o / -112u | -310 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -108 | 44.5 -108o / -112u | +250 |
- Vanderbilt vs Georgia State Point Spread: Vanderbilt -8 (-112) · Georgia State +8 (-108)
- Vanderbilt vs Georgia State Total: Over/Under 44.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Vanderbilt vs Georgia State Moneyline: Vanderbilt -310 · Georgia State +250
- Pick: Vanderbilt -10.5
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Georgia State Panthers college Football
Vanderbilt Football
I am not ready to declare the Dores a football school, but they deserve to be recognized for their 2-0 start. There hasn't been much to get excited about for the program until recently when QB Diego Pavia brought them some new life.
Through 2 weeks, I am impressed with Vanderbilt's metrics on both sides of the ball. It's astoundingly seventh in EPA/Pass and Top-20 in 3rd/4th down success on offense.
Overall, the Dores are 15th in offensive Success Rate, including 4th in passing. We are talking about the Vanderbilt Commodores, not the Kansas City Chiefs.
But let's pump the breaks here. The Dores have these stats through two games when facing an overrated Virginia Tech team and Alcorn State. Pavia has fumbled the ball twice already but has over 430 yards through the air and ground.
It's another great matchup on paper against Georgia State's defense, which is 91st in defensive Success Rate and 125th against the pass. They've been a tough group against the run, so I expect the Dores to handle many offensive trips through the air.
Defensively, the key for Vanderbilt is holding up in the secondary and preventing the Panthers from early down success. If the Panthers can pick up big chunks on first and second down, it will be tough for the Dores' defense to hold up.
Their defense has been spectacular against the run, and they're third in the nation in opposing starting field position. That is partly due to their special teams and defense preventing quality drives.
It's early in the season, and the Dores have not exactly faced a murderer's row schedule, but I like their chances of picking up the win on the road.
Georgia State Football
The Panthers' offense has had critical turnovers in the red zone, which has resulted in many points left on the board. They are also 100th in the nation at a third-down success rate.
But that is the least of their worries.
The defensive unit has been atrocious, entering the matchup 115th in total EPA, 91st in defensive Success Rate and 125th against the pass, as mentioned earlier.
Pavia is going to shred the secondary to pieces unless something changes quickly. It might seem like a good statistic that they've only allowed 56 plays per game to the opposition, but that is solely because their opponents are getting a short-field position to work with and generating an abundance of explosive plays.
The defense's only legitimate shot is if it can limit the number of explosive plays through the air. Their run defense is not too terrible, but there are far too many holes in the secondary for the Dores not to take advantage of.
Let's be real here. This defense only created six(!) Havoc registered plays against Chattanooga last week. There is no reason to believe they will drastically flip the switch on Saturday.
Vanderbilt vs Georgia State: Back the Dores
I can not believe I am typing this sentence in 2024, but I will lay double-digit points with the Commodores here. I hope the line dips a bit before kickoff, but I am willing to pay the current price if I have to.
The Panthers proved to me last week that their defense is as bad as its metrics suggest, barely squeaking out a win. I may look foolish, but I am also fading the public here.
I'll happily dive in with the sharps, considering the public perception of the Dores is still extremely smelly. I tried fading the Pavia Ponzi scheme far too much last season, so I will rock with him again for the second time this season.
Pick: Vanderbilt -10.5 (Play to -11)
How to Watch Vanderbilt vs Georgia State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Vanderbilt vs Georgia State Betting Trends
- 66% of the tickets generated and 31% of the money are targeted for Georgia State to cover.
- 88% of bets are picking the Over to hit.
- 89% of tickets are aimed for Vanderbilt moneyline.
