The UTEP Miners (1-6, 1-3 Conference USA) will head to Ruston, Louisiana, to take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2-4, 1-4) in a Tuesday night Conference USA matchup. Kickoff is set from Joe Aillet Stadium at 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
The Bulldogs are 6-point favorites at home in this game, with an over/under of 50 points set as of right now.
Let’s dive into my preview for Tuesday night’s matchup with UTEP vs Louisiana Tech predictions and college football picks to find out where I see betting value on this game.
UTEP vs Louisiana Tech Prediction
- UTEP vs. Louisiana Tech Pick: Over 50.5 (Bet to 51.5)
My UTEP-Louisiana Tech best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
UTEP vs Louisiana Tech Odds
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -225 |
- UTEP vs Louisiana Tech Point Spread: UTEP +6 (-110) · Louisiana Tech -6 (-110)
- UTEP vs Louisiana Tech Total: Over/Under 50 (-110o / -110u)
- UTEP vs Louisiana Tech Moneyline: UTEP +185 · Louisiana Tech -225
UTEP vs Louisiana Tech Preview
UTEP Miners Betting Preview: Looking to Build Off Win
The Miners got off the schneid last week against FIU and put themselves in the win column for the first time this season. UTEP averaged 6.1 yards per play and posted a 61st-percentile Success Rate in this game, primarily on the back of its run game.
UTEP’s passing game has been atrocious this season. Quarterback Skyler Locklear has racked up909 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions on the season.
He's averaging -0.19 EPA per Dropback this season and averaged -0.30 EPA per Play in last week’s win over FIU. As a team, the Miners rank 119th in Pass Success Rate and 99th in EPA per Pass.
On the ground, UTEP ranks 73rd in Rush Success Rate and 108th in Rush EPA per Play.
Jevon Jackson has led the way with 88 carries for 403 yards and one touchdown on the year. He showed out last week, putting up 26 carries for 148 yards and a touchdown while averaging 0.13 EPA per play.
Defensively, UTEP ranks 98th in Success Rate Allowed and 83rd in EPA Per Play allowed this season. This stop unit ranks 119th nationally, according to SP+.
Teams have primarily run the ball against the Miners, as they have the fifth-most rushing plays per game faced this season. They rank 92nd in Rush Success Rate allowed and 67th in Rush EPA allowed, as they have found ways to prevent big plays.
This is partly because they Miners one of the better tackling teams in the country, ranking 32nd in PFF’s Tackling grade.
In the passing game, UTEP ranks 86th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 95th in EPA per Pass allowed. It ranks 106th in PFF’s Coverage grades and 85th in PFF’s Pass Rushing grades, as it's better on the front end than the back at this point.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Betting Preview: New QB, Better Results
Louisiana Tech sits at 2-4 on the season but has played a very easy slate of opponents.
It has the second-easiest schedule in FBS to this point, according to CFB Reference, with UTEP being its fifth FBS opponent that has ranked 117th or lower in SP+.
To make matters worse, Louisiana Tech has already lost three of these four games, although they've all been by a single possession.
The Bulldogs have been much better on offense since going to quarterback Evan Bullock out of the bye two weeks ago. He has helped them put up 48 and 30 points in the last two games after they hadn’t gone over 20 against an FBS opponent all season.
Bullock is averaging 0.13 EPA Per Dropback right now compared to -0.16 for Jack Turner, who he replaced as starter.
As a team, Louisiana Tech ranks 107th in Pass Success Rate and 77th in Pass EPA. Over the last two games, it has had an above-average EPA Per Dropback mark, so it seems to be showing improvement through the air compared to the first few weeks of the season.
This LA Tech offensive line ranks 87th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades compared to 121st in PFF Run Block grade, so it has certainly held up better in passing situations than on the ground. This is a big reason why the Bulldogs rank only 122nd in Rush Success Rate and 129th in EPA Per Rush this season.
Louisiana Tech’s defense has been great this year, albeit against a weak schedule of opposing offenses. It's 19th in Success Rate allowed and 23rd in EPA Per Play allowed.
The Bulldogs' passing defense has also been exceptionally strong, ranking 17th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 41st in EPA Per Pass allowed.
However, they also sit 119th in both PFF Pass Rush grade and Coverage grade, which I think is more indicative of where they are as a defense when taking the opponents they've faced into account.
Against the run, Louisiana Tech is 20th in EPA Per Rush allowed and 37th in Rush Success Rate allowed. It's 94th in PFF’s Run Defense grades this year and 103rd in PFF’s Tackling grades.
UTEP vs Louisiana Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTEP and Louisiana Tech match up statistically:
UTEP Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 88 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 75 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 117 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 126 | 102 | |
| Finishing Drives | 129 | 80 | |
| Quality Drives | 123 | 53 | |
Louisiana Tech Offense vs. UTEP Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 119 | 98 | |
| Line Yards | 123 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 114 | 92 | |
| Havoc | 90 | 93 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 68 | 76 | |
| Quality Drives | 83 | 111 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 32 | 103 |
| PFF Coverage | 105 | 117 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 130 | 99 |
| Middle 8 | 69 | 25 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.2 (28) | 26.3 (49) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (90) | 52% (93) |
UTEP vs Louisiana Tech Pick & Prediction
Neither team in this game inspires a ton of confidence, as they're both well below-average teams as a whole, even for Conference USA.
Louisiana Tech is favored by a full touchdown, but I don’t believe there's that much of a difference between the two teams.
However, Bullock appears to give the Bulldogs a large advantage over Locklear in this matchup, so I’m not looking to fade the team with the better quarterback at home.
Instead, my favorite play on this game will be the over at 50 points.
I think Louisiana Tech’s offense is better than the market is giving it credit for with this quarterback change. Plus, the Bulldogs defense is worse than their overall numbers show, leading to what I believe will be a higher-scoring game between these two conference foes.
Pick: Over 50 (Play to 51.5)
UTEP vs Louisiana Tech Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 22 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
UTEP vs Louisiana Tech Betting Trends
- 44% of bets and 58% of the money are on LA Tech to cover the spread
- 95% of bets and 94% of the money on the moneyline are on LA Tech to win outright
- 52% of bets and 84% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
