The Toledo Rockets take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, KY. Kickoff is set for 12:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Kentucky is favored by -10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -335. The total is set at 47.5 points.
Here’s my Toledo vs. Kentucky predictions and college football picks for Saturday, August 30, 2025.
Toledo vs Kentucky Prediction
- Toledo vs. Kentucky Pick: Toledo +10
My Kentucky vs. Toledo best bet is on the Rockets spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Toledo vs Kentucky Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -115 | 47.5 -112o / -108u | +280 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -105 | 47.5 -112o / -108u | -355 |
- Toledo vs Kentucky point spread: Kentucky -10
- Toledo vs Kentucky over/under: 47.5 points
- Toledo vs Kentucky moneyline: Toledo +280, Kentucky -355
Toledo vs Kentucky Pick, Betting Analysis
I made it very clear in my MAC preview that this Toledo team is a premier Group of 5 roster led by a veteran quarterback and splashy skill position talent on offense.
Chip Trayanum and Trayvon Rudolph are great weapons who generate explosive plays for the Rockets.
Also, historically, what do I want to do with Jason Candle and Toledo? I want to play the Rockets when they're punching up, and I want to fade them when they're punching down in MAC play. That's how you make money when it comes to Toledo football.
If this was a vintage Mark Stoops Kentucky defense and the unit was strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball, this would be probably a pass for me.
But uncharacteristically, the defense was soft last year, and now they're replacing four starters on the offensive line and their entire front seven defensively.
Plus, Kentucky's offensive coordinator is Bush Hamdan, who's not a schematic difference maker and is a liability as a play caller. He got fired at Washington and was walked out of Boise State.
Now, Zach Calzada could very well be an upgrade for the Wildcats, as he revived his career at the FCS level and is bringing in a little bit of juice.
But Toledo has a really strong secondary. You can make a strong argument that it has the best Group of 5 secondary, with four of its five starters returning in the defensive backfield.
And historically, the Rockets always show up in these spots. They beat the stuffing out of Mississippi State last year on the road in Starkville, they took Illinois down to the wire in 2023 and they nearly upset Notre Dame in South Bend in 2021.
I see them doing it again, so I'm sprinkling on the moneyline as well.
Pick: Toledo +10
