The No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (3-0) and Josh Heupel head into Norman to face the No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) and Brent Venables on Saturday night on ABC at 7:30 p.m. ET. The game is also streaming live on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
Tennessee whalloped Kent State 71-0 in Week 3, easily covering the 49.5-point spread. Oklahoma took care of Tulane 34-19 last week and covered as 12.5-point favorites.
Tennessee is now down to a consensus 6-point favorite over Oklahoma (Tennessee -6) as we get closer and closer to kickoff. That line has been Tenessee -6.5 for much of Saturday. However, you can find Oklahoma +7 at a couple of sportsbooks, which is important for my pick on this game. There are also Tennessee -5.5s out there, so be sure to shop around if you're betting the spread. The over/under is currently 57 points, having opened at 61. The Volunteers are -225 favorites on the moneyline, with Oklahoma +185 to pull of the upset.
So, where does the betting value lie in this top-15 clash? Let's dive into my Tennessee vs. Oklahoma predictions and college football picks for Week 4 Saturday.
Tennessee at Oklahoma Odds, Spread, Lines
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -230 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | +190 |
- Tennessee vs. Oklahoma spread: Tennessee -6
- Tennessee vs. Oklahoma over/under: 57 points
- Tennessee vs. Oklahoma moneylines: Tennessee -225, Oklahoma +185
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma Predictions, Picks
My expert Oklahoma vs. Tennessee best bet is on the Sooners to cover the spread as underdogs, but I'd only bet it at Oklahoma +7 or better. Currently, that line is available at DraftKings. Always shop around for the best lines for all your bets with our live NCAAF odds page.
- Tennessee vs. Oklahoma pick: Oklahoma to cover (+7 or better)
Spread
We're betting the Sooners to cover the spread, as long as we can get Oklahoma +7 or better.
Over/Under
I don't have a bet on the over/under for this game, especially given how much movement we've seen on this line. If you're interested in betting this total, I'd suggest checking our our PRO reports for more projections and edges.
Moneyline
While I'm betting on Oklahoma to cover at the right number, I do not have a bet for the outright winner.
Prediction
Oklahoma +7
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Betting Trends
- 68% of bets and 52% of the money are on Tennessee to cover.
- 52% of bets and 43% of the money are on the under.
- 93% of bets and 99% of the money are on Tennessee to win outright on the moneyline.
Tennessee Volunteers Football
The Volunteers' wide-split tempo offense has been in full gear since the first snap of the season.
With a flavor of Art Briles' Veer-and-Shoot and a mix of Air Raid concepts, a quarterback who can mix RPO gives Tennessee one of the most electric offenses in the nation.
Nico Iamaleava is on track to be the best quarterback to ever run the Heupel offense, already firing six touchdowns while posting nearly 100 yards in the rushing game.
Numerous weapons on the outside have taken the next step in terms of explosiveness as well. Wideout Chris Brazzell II and slot Squirrel White both have greater than two yards per route run.
Nico 53 yard deep ball to Chris Brazzell, TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/YnWzczEpFC
— gmannVOLS (@gmannVOLS) September 15, 2024
Against the secondaries of Kent State, NC State and Chattanooga, Iamaleava has led Tennessee to a top-25 rank in on-target rate, a measure of accuracy in the passing game.
The surprising element to this point has been the rushing attack. Running back Dylan Sampson has posted 4.7 yards after contact while collecting nine rushing touchdowns against the nonconference competition.
Defensive coordinator Tim Banks has seen an improvement on defense through three weeks of play.
The Volunteers lead the nation in Defensive Quality and Finishing Frives, but an uptick in Havoc has played a major factor so far this season. Tennessee has already collected 20 tackles for loss and 16 passes defensed on the season.
Edge James Pearce Jr. continues to dominate offensive tackles, leading the team in pressures thus far.
If there's an area that went untested through the first 25% of the season, it's the secondary. The 2023 two-deep depth chart was emptied in the offseason, so the Vols added three transfers with experience from Temple, Oregon State and Middle Tennessee.
Former Beaver cornerback Jermod McCoy has the highest coverage grading so far, recording two pass breakups on the season. Outside of three forced incompletions, no other player in the secondary has a high coverage grade.
Safeties Will Brooks and Andre Turrentine have allowed 5-of-6 targets to be caught, while cornerback Boo Carter has allowed the most yards after catch on the team.
Banks is expected to continue utilizing a high amount of zone in Cover 3.
Oklahoma Sooners Football
The biggest statistic that indicates the winner of a game is the Success Rate battle. Although Oklahoma is undefeated, the Sooners hang outside the top 90 in terms of Rushing Success Rate and rank a poor 121st in Passing Success Rate.
Offensive line coach Bill Bedenbaugh is respected as one of the best in the business, but five new starters in the trench have had a direct impact on passing attempts for the Sooners.
Sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold has already faced 28 pressures through three games, completing 6-of-16 pass attempts with two interceptions in a crowded pocket.
However, Arnold has been tremendous in a clean pocket, generating six touchdowns without recording a turnover-worthy play.
I think Jackson Arnold will be the best QB in college football before the season ends. pic.twitter.com/aAFR6htHkR
— Christian Williams (@CWilliamsNFL) August 30, 2024
The offensive line has also struggled in run blocking from a Line Yards and Stuff Rate perspective through three games.
However, the Sooners saw improvement in their latest game against Tulane. The Green Wave stuffed OU at a national average rate, while the Sooners produced five explosives runs.
Nearly half of OU's drives featured two or more first downs, as it also generated multiple methodical and explosive drives.
Oklahoma exceeded the national average in Finishing Drives, a metric that looks at points per drive that extends beyond the opponent's 40-yard line. The numbers are a positive development against a Tulane defense that's top-35 in Defensive Passing Success Rate and Finishing Drives.
The defense has carried the water for Oklahoma so far this season, producing top-30 ranks in tackling, Opponent Quality Drives and Havoc.
Defensive coordinator Zac Alley has generated one of the toughest defenses in the nation against the rush. Entering Week 4, the Sooners sit top-10 in Opponent Rushing Success Rate and rush explosives.
The focus against Tennessee will certainly be on a secondary that pivots between Cover 3 and quarters. Venables is sure to replicate Georgia head coach Kirby Smart's “mint” package featured in quarters coverage.
Oklahoma’s best weapon against Tennessee's offense will be interrupting receiver routes to throw off the timing between the receiver and Iamaleava.
While the focus is on Heupel’s return to Norman, there may not be anyone who knows the Tennessee head coach more than Venables. The current Oklahoma head coach was the defensive coordinator for the Sooners from 1999-2011.
That time span covers Heupel’s time in Norman as a player, quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator. There's no lack of familiarity between the two coaches in this Week 4 clash.
The first handicap resides in Oklahoma's offensive line keeping a clean pocket for Arnold — a tough assignment against Pearce.
Starting tackle Michael Tarquin possesses the highest pass-blocking grade of any starting offensive lineman. Tarquin has experience at both tackle positions but is expected to stay on the right side, where Pearce plays most of his snaps.
With a clean pocket, Arnold will have to continue his streak of not making a turnover-worthy play.
Another positive for Sooners comes in the secondary, as safety Robert Spears-Jennings ranks as the seventh-best individual pass coverage defender in the nation. Cornerback Kani Walker also pulls a top-125 coverage grade of all defenders in FBS, per PFF.
Fellow cornerback Dez Malone deserves mention for his play this season, allowing just 3-of-10 targets to be caught while recording two pass breakups.
Action Network's betting power ratings make this game less than a field goal, which os especially notable after steam hit the Tennessee number.
Market inflation was to be expected with Oklahoma’s struggles, while Tennessee routed NC State on a neutral field in Charlotte.
With the progression of the Sooners' offensive line and a secondary with high coverage grades, Memorial Stadium will provide a boost against Heupel's wide-split spread. Expect Oklahoma to challenge for an outright victory.
Week 4 College Football Pick: Oklahoma +7 or Better
How to Watch: Start Time, TV Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee is set to start at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, live on ABC. The game is also streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV, and other streaming platforms.
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