After an emotional couple of weeks in the Carolinas due to Hurricane Helene's aftermath, the NC State Wolfpack (3-3) will host the Syracuse Orange (4-1) at Carter-Finley Stadium this Saturday. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
The Orange are coming off an emotional win last week at UNLV. Although they out-gained the Rebels in the box score, a few questionable calls from the ACC officials went their way. Tony Gibson's strong defensive philosophy will test the Orange despite not meeting the typical Wolfpack defense.
Oddsmakers have the Wolfpack as 3-point underdogs, and the total is set at 54.5. Let's get to my Syracuse vs NC State predictions and my college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Syracuse vs NC State Picks, Prediction
- Syracuse vs NC State Pick: NC State +3 or better
My NC State vs Syracuse best bet is on the Wolfpack to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Syracuse vs NC State Odds, Spread, Lines
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
- Syracuse vs NC State Point Spread: Syracuse -2.5 (-110) · NC State +2.5 (-110)
- Syracuse vs NC State Total: Over/Under 51.5
- Syracuse vs NC State Moneyline: Syracuse -130 · NC State +110
Syracuse Football vs NC State Football Preview
Syracuse Orange Betting Preview: Letdown Spot After an Emotional Win?
The Orange were impressive on offense last week and pulled off the road victory at UNLV. Although there was a lot of questionable officiating throughout the game, the box score suggests that the Orange dominated.
QB Kyle McCord had 63 attempts but completed 40 of them. His 355 yards and 3 TD passes were a big reason the Orange came out on top in OT.
After last week's emotional game, the Orange have to be careful not to come out flat. Speaking to casuals throughout the week about the matchup, I do not think many people doubt that the Orange are going to come into Raleigh and dominate.
Not so fast, because there are areas of concern that I am weary of. First, the ground attack has been inconsistent thus far, which could be a better sign heading into a matchup against Gibson's defense.
They are 95th in offensive line yards, and the Wolfpack's defense has been shaky in this area. Luckily, the Orange are 30th in Havoc allowed, and they will be tested against a Wolfpack defensive front that has created a lot of pressure thus far.
The passing attack led by McCord has been excellent, but the strength of the Wolfpack defense lies in the secondary. All kudos to the Rebels defense thus far, but McCord will undoubtedly be under more duress in this matchup than last week.
Protecting the football on offense will be critical, especially since they'll most likely face backup Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey, as Grayson McCall is recovering from a concussion. They've been excellent in the red zone and establishing quality drives, and they love to run up-tempo.
The offense may stagger a bit at times, but they should be able to break through on some scoring drives. Defensively, I have some questions, which shouldn't be a surprise, given last week's performance.
They are 119th in PFF Tackling, 109th in Finishing Drives allowed, and 90th in Passing Success Rate. Granted, McCall is not going to play, but it is clear that the best way to attack the Orange defense is through the air.
The secondary should get some reinforcements as a couple of key players are set to return from injury. Stiffening up in that department will be massive for their defense. The defensive front has created a lot of pressure thus far, and that will be key to preventing plays from developing down the field.
It is a tough spot for the Orange, and despite their offensive edge over the Wolfpack, I cannot suggest backing them here.
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview: CJ Bailey Steps in for Grayson McCall at QB
Head coach Dave Doeren has had to answer a lot of questions thus far in 2024, and it's only the second week of October. It's been unfortunate that McCall continues to suffer injuries, as he is a huge difference maker to their offense.
When McCall was healthy, the offense still had its issues, but now a lot of pressure lies on CJ Bailey, who is in line to start. Bailey has completed 65% of his passes, with 4 TD passes and 3 INTs.
The Wolfpack's Passing Success Rate ranks 33rd, and with a mixture of McCall and Bailey, they have a solid matchup against a struggling Syracuse secondary. The issue is that the Wolfpack are 128th in Havoc allowed, and that is a nightmare against an Orange' defensive front that likes to get after it.
They've struggled to consistently run the ball, hence why they are only running the ball 50% of the time. They are a snail on offense, ranking 128th in tempo.
The offense's goal will be to keep away from the up-tempo Orange, so I expect them to sit on the ball most of their offensive possessions. They've been mediocre at finishing and establishing drives, and the Orange defense has struggled in that department.
The Wolfpack have the edge in the defensive tackling and coverage department, ranking in the top-50 in both categories (16th in tackling). The special teams edge is also massive, and they've been excellent in that department.
DC Tony Gibson always seems to cook up unique looks with his defense, so I am sure he'll have his unit prepared. The 3-3-5 defense is not what most opposing college QBs see on an everyday basis, so it'll be interesting to see how McCord adjusts.
Bailey just needs to do enough through the air to play, keep away, and protect the football, which is going to be massive. If the Wolfpack can play a clean game, they should be able to limit the amount of possessions by bleeding the clock.
Syracuse vs NC State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Syracuse and NC State match up statistically:
Syracuse Offense vs. NC State Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 81 | 65 | |
| Line Yards | 95 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 61 | |
| Havoc | 30 | 29 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 107 | |
| Quality Drives | 9 | 112 | |
NC State Offense vs. Syracuse Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 87 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 33 | 90 | |
| Havoc | 128 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 109 | |
| Quality Drives | 80 | 89 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 119 | 16 |
| PFF Coverage | 67 | 47 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 121 | 22 |
| Middle 8 | 32 | 126 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.3 (27) | 30.8 (128) |
| Rush Rate | 38% (133) | 50% (93) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Syracuse vs NC State Prediction
This is a terrible spot for the Orange, and due to all of the emotions surrounding the disaster of Hurricane Helene, I definitely give the Wolfpack a bump here.
The Orange played a draining game last week in Vegas, and now have to travel down to Raleigh in a tough road environment on Saturday night.
I am not quite sure what to expect from Bailey, but what I do know is that they should be able to control the time of possession and make it a lower-variance game. They do not run the ball too often, but with McCall out, we should see a more rush-heavy approach.
Given how fast the Orange like to go on offense, the Wolfpack defense is critical to the matchup on getting quick stops to allow to their offense to develop methodical, scoring drives.
There is a lot of uncertainty on offense, but I am going to take the Wolfpack as home 'dogs catching 3-points in front of what should be a fired-up crowd, given all of the emotions the state has gone through over the last couple of weeks.
Pick: NC State +3 or better
Syracuse vs NC State Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
