The Stanford Cardinal (3-8, 2-6 ACC) take on the San Jose State Spartans (6-5, 3-4 MWC) in nonconference action on Friday, Nov. 29. This game kicks off at 4 p.m. ET and can be seen live on CBS.
This is an intriguing matchup with a Power Four Stanford team hitting the road against a Mountain West in San Jose State opponent to end the season.
Both teams are certainly disappointed with the results from last week and will look to rebound here.
Stanford is looking to take some momentum into the offseason, while the Spartans have an opportunity to notch a program-boosting win over an ACC foe.
San Jose State is listed as a -3 favorite with an over/under of 55.5.
Let's detail my Stanford vs. San Jose State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 29.
Stanford vs San Jose State Prediction
- Stanford vs San Jose State Pick: San Jose State -3
My San Jose State vs. Stanford best bet is on the Spartans to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Stanford vs San Jose State Odds
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 55.5 -110 / -110 | +125 |
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 55.5 -110 / -110 | -150 |
- Stanford vs San Jose State Spread: Stanford +3 (-110) · San Jose State -3 (-110)
- Stanford vs San Jose State Over/Under: 55.5
- Stanford vs San Jose State Moneyline: Stanford +125 · San Jose State -150
Stanford vs San Jose State Preview
Why Stanford Can Cover: Needing a Bounce-Back Effort
Stanford comes in off a crushing 24-21 loss against rival Cal last week. This is one that Trees are certainly going to look back on and be kicking themselves for letting slip away.
The Cardinal built a 21-7 lead late in the third quarter before Cal made a late push. The Bears went 98 yards in the final minutes to score the game-winning touchdown with two minutes remaining and stopped Stanford on downs to seal the win.
It will be hard for Stanford to get up for this one after suffering through a disappointing season in ACC play and this most recent setback against Cal.
Stanford can't run the ball effectively and has been held under 120 yards as a team in seven games this year.
The Spartans have played several rush-heavy offenses and have faced a substantial amount of rush attempts but have actually held up very well given the competition. San Jose State held Boise State and UNLV well below their season averages in yards per carry and total output on the ground.
The Trees are going to struggle here and rely on the passing game.
However, quarterback Ashton Daniels has been an average passing quarterback this season while completing 62% with a 9:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
He has struggled recently to get the ball to play-making receiver Elic Ayomanor, as the team has been held under 200 passing yards eight times this season.
Why San Jose State Spartans Can Cover: Plenty of Advantages
San Jose State is undoubtedly disappointed its last two results.
The Spartans had a chance to make some serious noise in the MWC and hosted the two premier teams in the league the last two weeks. In both instances, San Jose State had Boise State and UNLV against the ropes in the second half but was outscored a combined 45-7 in the late stages of those games and failed to win and cover either contest.
Last week, the weather had a major effect on the outcome, as SJSU couldn't throw the ball in the wet and sloppy conditions and had absolutely no ground game to hang its hat on.
UNLV pounded the ball against the Spartan defense and finished with 257 yards and 61 rushing attempts in the low-scoring affair. I would imagine things look a tad different here for San Jose State facing off against a Stanford defense that can be thrown on.
The Cardinal rank just 105th nationally in Defensive EPA Per Pass and 110th in Passing Success Rate allowed. Stanford is allowing a 66% completion percentage this season and has yielded 27 passing touchdowns.
While Stanford doesn’t give up a ton of explosive pass plays, the San Jose State offense is predicated on shorter quick passes and making appropriate reads.
I expect a high completion percentage and consistent chain-moving drives out of the Spartans.
Defensively, San Jose State should create a little pressure here and make Daniels uncomfortable. The Cardinal rank just 116th nationally in Havoc Allowed and have given up 38 sacks and 95 tackles for loss on the season.
Those negative plays have consistently put Stanford's offense in an unfavorable downs and distances, and Stanford has been terrible on third down this season with a 34% conversion rate.
While the Defensive Havoc numbers aren't off the charts, San Jose State can bring pressure and has registered 22 sacks and 77 tackles for loss.
Stanford vs San Jose State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Stanford and San Jose State match up statistically:
Stanford Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 108 | 77 | |
| Line Yards | 115 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 37 | |
| Havoc | 131 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 91 | 42 | |
| Quality Drives | 104 | 71 | |
San Jose State Offense vs. Stanford Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 83 | |
| Line Yards | 134 | 58 | |
| Pass Success | 32 | 124 | |
| Havoc | 77 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 102 | 127 | |
| Quality Drives | 112 | 119 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 91 | 118 |
| PFF Coverage | 116 | 60 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 30 | 118 |
| Middle 8 | 127 | 34 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (105) | 23.6 (10) |
| Rush Rate | 55% (76) | 37% (131) |
How To Make Stanford vs San Jose State Picks
I'm laying it with San Jose State. I have serious questions about Stanford’s ability to match up here.
Stanford has no real consistency and just lost its biggest game of the season ahead of a road trip against a Group of Five opponent.
This game will mean much more to San Jose State than it will to Stanford, and I would expect maximum effort from the Spartans here at home.
While the results were not favorable against Boise State or UNLV, they had the lead in both but just couldn't close it out. They will close this one out and get a big home win over a Power Four opponent.
Lay it with the Spartans.
Pick: San Jose State -3
Stanford vs San Jose State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Stanford faces San Jose State on Friday, Nov. 29 at 4 p.m. ET on CBS.
San Jose State vs Stanford Betting Trends
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