Week 4 in college football continues on with a riveting afternoon slate that features No. 11 USC vs. No. 18 Michigan, No. 12 Utah vs. No. 14 Oklahoma State and No. 7 Missouri hosting Vanderbilt.
But while those games will capture the nation's attention, our NCAAF staff is looking for the best betting value.
And with that, they've spotlighted three games and four best bets for this Saturday afternoon window. So, here's your college football best bets and picks, including afternoon bets for Kent State vs. Penn State, Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech and more on September 21.
 |  |  |
Saturday College Football Best Bets: Afternoon Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday afternoon's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Arizona State vs. Texas Tech Best Bets
After two shaky performances to start the year, the Red Raiders seemed to “get right” last week at home against North Texas.
Behren Morton continues to play at a high level and Tech welcomed back star RB Tahj Brooks, who had been out with injury.
Additionally, this is a great situational spot for TTU, staying at home in Lubbock to begin conference play, while Arizona State hits the road again following an emotional come-from-behind win at Texas State.
The Red Raiders’ defense is still concerning, but ASU runs a more methodical offense that I don’t think will be able to expose some weaknesses in the secondary as much.
When Tech does have the ball, it’ll be able to create chunk plays down the field both through the air and on the ground.
Ultimately, there will be plenty of points scored in this one, but I don’t think the Sun Devils have the firepower to keep pace with an improving TTU football team that’s far better than what it showed in the first two weeks of the year.
Pick: Texas Tech -3 (Play to -3.5)
| | | |
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech Best Bets
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will travel to Blacksburg, Virginia, to take on the Virginia Tech Hokies, as the two former Big East adversaries continue a home-and-away series in their respective new conferences.
Revenge will be on the mind of Virginia Tech, which looks to even the series after dropping this meeting last season.
Kyron Drones made his first start for the Hokies last season against Rutgers in a 35-16 loss, but he did usher in a new offensive regime as he kept the starting spot from that point forward.
Both teams will have a big emphasis on the run.
While a lot has been made of Rutgers’ ground game so far this season, there needs to be a strong caveat tied to the quality of its opponents.
Coming into this game, Rutgers ranks 133rd of 134 teams in FBS strength of schedule season to date.
Sure, the Scarlet Knights have put up some really impressive numbers on the ground, averaging 307.0 yards per game, but they have faced just one Group of Five FBS team and an FCS team thus far.
Virginia Tech will be much better suited to challenge the truly one-dimensional Rutgers rushing attack.
The Hokies have raised some red flags around their rush defense, but they should be able to counteract their own weakness by exploiting a Rutgers rush defense that’s giving up 150.0 yards per game on the ground to weak competition.
After opening at 5.5 this spread has come down to 3, and I believe this provides excellent value for laying the home chalk.
We’re simply looking for the more complete quarterback in Drones and the more tested team to pick up the win at home.
Back Virginia Tech at Lane Stadium, and lay the points at -3 or better. If the line moves above 3, I recommend waiting for a live betting opportunity.
Pick: Virginia Tech -3
| | | |
Kent State vs. Penn State Best Bets
Am I a sicko? 100%. But if the premise of James Franklin knowing exactly what the spread of his games are and the ensuing running up of the score doesn’t get you to your television set, then I don’t know what will.
Kent State enters this week’s paycheck game having been outscored 149-41 through three games. That includes a 71-0 shellacking by Tennessee just seven days prior.
The Golden Flashes have just one total win since 2022, a victory over the almighty Central Connecticut State.
Penn State, on the other hand, is fresh off a bye. Its most recent performance was lackluster by Penn State standards, surrendering 24 first-half points to Bowling Green.
Franklin and defensive coordinator Tom Allen have had two weeks to drill into their defense’s minds how unacceptable that performance was, so you know the defense will be looking to make a statement in the form of a shutout or something in that vein.
But how much will Penn State be willing to continue scoring, especially with a ranked Illinois team looming?
In what’s now Franklin’s 11th year as the Nittany Lions’ head coach, he’s beaten a team by more than 50 points on seven occasions. In 2023, Penn State beat UMass and Delaware by 63 and 56 points, respectively.
Simply put, this is a man who has no conscience and takes no prisoners. I don’t see the tiger changing his stripes in this one as Penn State rolls to a seven-touchdown victory.
Pick: Penn State -48.5 (Play to 49)
| | | |
Kent State vs. Penn State Best Bets
By Joshua Nunn
Kent State has really struggled this year defensively. The metrics are off the charts bad. Its success rate is low, Havoc-achieved is low and it allows a ton of explosive plays.
The Flashes have been outplayed in all three phases of the game three weeks in a row, and I can’t see a scenario here where Kent State can be counted on to get stops.
The Flashes allowed 65 points last week in the first half, and Tennessee scored on every single drive of the game other than its last drive. Tennessee ran for 456 yards and six touchdowns, and the Vols were kind of bad in the second half.
I think it’s really hard to grasp how historically poor this defense has played. Even St. Francis (PA) moved the ball at will against Kent State and outgained it by over 120 yards.
Offensively, Kent State can’t run the football. In two games against FBS competition, it has 85 yards on 70 carries. The pass game had some success against Pittsburgh, but I would expect the pass efficiency and explosive numbers to look like they did last week against Tennessee.
The Kent State punt coverage team has also allowed 192 punt return yards against Tennessee and Pitt, which resulted in very short fields for its opponents.
Penn State is coming off a bye week, and it didn’t play particularly well against Bowling Green. The Falcons’ offense moved it at will against a tough PSU defense and kept the Nittany Lions on the sidelines, something Kent State won’t be able to do.
This game is going to get out of hand quite early, and I can see Penn State getting a lot of work for its second team in the second half. I see short fields and touchdowns for Penn State, even if it isn’t intentionally trying to run up the score.
If the cover is in doubt late, James Franklin has numerous accounts of intentionally punching in late scores to cover.
I would expect Penn State to score 60+ in this matchup, and I like the over in this matchup with or without Kent State chipping in.
Pick: Over 55.5 (Play to 58)
