Conference USA play continues as the Sam Houston Bearkats (5-2, 2-1 CUSA) travel to Miami to take on the Florida International Panthers (2-5, 1-2) on Tuesday, Oct. 22 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Sam Houston enters this game with a 5-2 record but is looking to bounce back from a 31-14 home loss to Western Kentucky. The Bearkats own a 5-2 record against the spread and have gone under the total in 4 games this season.
FIU, meanwhile, boasts a 2-5 record and is coming into this game looking to break a 2-game losing streak. The Panthers are 4-3 against the spread and have gone over the total in 4 games this season.
Weather could be impactful in the overall scoring. While precipitation isn't expected, winds up to 13 MPH could present problems for the offense and special teams.
Sam Houston enters as a -5.5 favorite with the over/under set at 46.5.
So, where does the betting value lie in this Tuesday night tussle? Let's dive into my Sam Houston vs. FIU predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Oct. 22.
Sam Houston vs FIU Prediction
- Sam Houston vs. FIU Pick: Under 46
My Sam Houston-FIU best bet is on both teams to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Sam Houston vs FIU Odds
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 / -110 | -220 |
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 / -110 | +180 |
- Sam Houston vs FIU Spread: Sam Houston -5.5 (-110) · FIU +5.5 (-110)
- Sam Houston vs FIU Over/Under: 46.5 Points
- Sam Houston vs FIU Moneyline: Sam Houston -220 · FIU +180
Sam Houston vs FIU Preview
Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview: Watson Leads Ground-Based Offense
Sam Houston's second season in the FBS has already eclipsed Year 1's three-win finish.
The Bearkats are averaging 31.8 points per game and 5.5 yards per play with a 40.9% Success Rate and 3.2 Points per Opportunity. They lean heavily on the run game but still manage a pace of 27.5 seconds per play pace, which ranks 75th nationally.
The offense is led by the running game, and quarterback Hunter Watson is at the forefront.
He leads the team with 370 rushing yards and four touchdowns and shares the backfield with running backs Jay Ducker and DJ McKinney, who have 348 rushing yards each.
As a team, the Bearkats are averaging 4.8 rushing yards per attempt with a 42.9% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line generates 3.40 Line Yards per attempt, which ranks an impressive 29th nationally.
While Watson’s role on the offense is primarily to lead the running game, his complementary passing success has elevated the whole offense.
Watson left the game against Western Kentucky and is questionable for the game, but as of Sunday, he was listed as the QB1 on the depth chart.
The JUCO transfer has completed 59.1% of his passes for an average of 6.5 yards per attempt. For the year, he has 859 passing yards and seven touchdowns.
However, turnovers have been a struggle, as he’s thrown five interceptions. As a team, Sam Houston owns a 39% Pass Success Rate to rank 99th nationally.
The defense allows 23.8 points per game and 5.3 yards per play with a 44.6% Success Rate allowed. The Kats struggle to stop opponents in their own territory, averaging 4.41 Points per Opportunity.
They also generate Havoc at a rate of 16.6%, including 12 turnovers forced.
Florida International Panthers Betting Preview: Improvement Needed
Florida International’s start is generally in line with recent years’ results, albeit slightly worse.
Mike MacIntyre’s team has finished the last two seasons with a 4-8 record, but he’ll need to find some late-season success to meet those levels.
The Panthers are averaging 26.1 points per game and 5.4 yards per play with a 37.3% Success Rate and 4.41 Points per Opportunity.
Quarterback Keyone Jenkins leads a balanced offense in Miami. As a team, Florida International has averaged 222.9 passing yards per game on 29 pass attempts.
Jenkins has completed 63.2% of his passes for an average of 7.7 yards per attempt. As a team, they boast a 40.4% Pass Success Rate and average 3.5 passes over 20 yards per game.
The Panthers feature a two-man backfield with two backs who have over 50 carries and 200 rushing yards.
Kejon Owens leads the team with 69 rush attempts and 301 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Lexington Joseph is the second back with 51 attempts for 216 yards and two scores. Both backs have contributed as pass-catchers as well.
As a unit, the Panthers own a Rush Success Rate of 34.5% behind an offensive line that generates 2.26 Line Yards per attempt — one of the worst marks in the nation.
The defense has played well enough to keep a struggling offense in the game, but it hasn’t won games for the Panthers.
They allow 28.7 points per game and 5.5 yards per play with a 43.3% Success Rate Allowed. Opponents have scored 3.64 Points per Opportunity.
The Panthers also create havoc on just 12.9% of plays.
Sam Houston vs FIU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Sam Houston and FIU match up statistically:
Sam Houston Offense vs. FIU Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 79 | 110 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 110 | |
| Pass Success | 99 | 24 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 125 | |
| Finishing Drives | 118 | 64 | |
| Quality Drives | 92 | 89 |  |
FIU Offense vs. Sam Houston Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 126 | 121 | |
| Line Yards | 132 | 132 | |
| Pass Success | 85 | 61 | |
| Havoc | 124 | 65 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 114 | |
| Quality Drives | 119 | 45 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 36 | 49 |
| PFF Coverage | 82 | 11 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 128 | 97 |
| Middle 8 | 101 | 118 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (75) | 27.3 (67) |
| Rush Rate | 64% (27) | 52% (75) |
Sam Houston vs FIU Pick & Prediction
As of writing, 89% of bets and 93% of money is supporting the favorite, Sam Houston, to cover a 6.5-point spread. However, according to our PRO Report, sharp money has been tracked in favor of the underdog.
Approximately 74% of bets and 74% of money has been in favor of the over. Interestingly enough, though, sharp money has hit the under, while big-money bets have favored the over.
With two run-heavy offenses, I'm backing the under in this matchup. Neither defense should pose a big threat when it comes to slowing down the offenses consistently, which should help keep drives long with the clock moving.
From there, we just have to trust in the defenses to keep touchdowns off the board.
Pick: Under 46 (Play to 45)
How to Watch Sam Houston vs FIU Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Pitbull Stadium, University Park, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 22 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
Sam Houston vs FIU Betting Trends
- Sam Houston has taken 89% of the bets and 93% of money.
- The over has landed 74% of the tickets and 74% of the cash.
Sam Houston vs FIU Weather
