The 2024 Big Ten Championship brings us a top-3 matchup between the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) and No. 1 Oregon Ducks (12-0, 9-0). Saturday's kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS.
The Ducks have raided the Big Ten, sweeping a conference schedule that included Michigan and Ohio State. Head coach Dan Lanning rectified Pac-12 losses against rival Washington in Week 14, beating the Huskies by 4 touchdowns.
Oregon has brought bully ball to a conference that has always had pride in establishing the run in inclement weather conditions. Since the Ducks' arrival in Indianapolis, Oregon has been the toast of the Big Ten conference.
Penn State, meanwhile, will look to capture its 2nd-ever Big Ten Championship after beating Wisconsin in its only trip to Indianapolis in 2016.
Oregon enters as a 3.5-point favorite, a number that has been stagnant throughout the betting week. The over/under sits at 49.5.
Let's take a look at my Penn State vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks for the Big Ten Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7.
Penn State vs Oregon Prediction & Best Pick
- Penn State vs. Oregon Pick: Penn State +3.5
My Oregon vs. Penn State best bet is on the Nittany Lions to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Penn State vs Oregon Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -102 | 51 -108o / -112u | +140 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -118 | 51 -108o / -112u | -166 |
- Penn State vs Oregon Spread: Penn State +3 · Oregon -3
- Penn State vs Oregon Over/Under: 51 Points
- Penn State vs Oregon Moneyline: Penn State +140 · Oregon -166
Penn State vs Oregon ATS Prediction: Big Ten Championship
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview: Pounding the Rock
Penn State kept up with Ohio State in terms of available yards and overall yards per play, but a horrific showing in scoring position led to no offense touchdowns.
Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki was the hottest name on the market before his move from Kansas to State College, but an average of 1.5 points in multiple scoring opportunities limited the Nittany Lions against the Buckeyes.
Penn State created two drives inside the 5-yard line only to come away empty-handed when Drew Allar through an interception and Kaytron Allen was stopped short multiple times.
PSU finished the regular season 15th in Offensive Finishing Drives, averaging 4.6 points on 73 drives that extended beyond the opponent's 40-yard line.
The Nittany Lions' ground attack has taken over in four games since the Ohio State loss.
Running back Nicholas Singleton has posted four touchdowns in the last three games, elevating his elusiveness to 3.5 yards after first contact.
Kotelnicki has called a wide variety of run concepts throughout the season, with power being the most explosive and efficient.
Drew Allar keeping his wits and circling back to Warren after Singleton in the flat was taken away is baller. pic.twitter.com/mk1geEZ6Ob
— Poerbler (@Poerbler) November 24, 2024
Since the Ohio State game, Allar hasn't recorded a turnover-worthy play in four consecutive games.
Tight end Tyler Warren continues to be the Swiss army knife of the offense, averaging more than three yards per route run while lining up in-line, as a slot receiver and in the wideout position.
Pressures continue to be an issue for the trench, which has allowed 17 in the past two games against Maryland and Minnesota.
Oregon Ducks Betting Preview: Can Oregon Stay Undefeated?
Oregon hasn't lost a game all season, with only three teams finishing within one possession. Boise State's near upset came in Week 2, as the Broncos generated a 62% Success Rate in 32 running attempts with Ashton Jeanty.
All eyes were on Eugene again in Week 7, as the Ducks were fortunate to beat Ohio State when Will Howard's slide attempt happened after time expired.
The Buckeyes generated two first downs on 6-of-11 possessions against Oregon.
Wisconsin also nearly pulled off a mid-November upset with a high 56% Success Rate on rushing attempts.
The formula against the Ducks has revolved around creating methodical drives via the ground game. Oregon ranks 42nd in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, falling to 82nd in Line Yards.
The Oregon defense has been in the middle of FBS rankings in Success Rate against various run concepts, but a rank of 53rd in broken tackles allowed has helped opposing offense generate explosives.
Lanning has excelled with his defense against the pass, generating a top-10 rank in coverage and pass rush.
Derrick Harmon has destroyed opposing offensive lines, as the Michigan State transfer has generated 47 pressures from the interior.
Derrick Harmon’s get off and power on this snap is fantastic pic.twitter.com/7zo6vxKg3D
— Joe DeLeone (@joedeleone) December 1, 2024
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel will come up short in his quest to bring another Heisman Trophy to Eugene, but a successful campaign includes 31 all-purpose touchdowns and a low 1.4% turnover-worthy play rate.
Gabriel finished the regular season ranked No. 1 overall in on-target rate, a Sports Info Solution statistic that grades a quarterback's ability to hit targets in stride.
A caveat to that is the short passing game, as Gabriel's average depth of target of seven yards is easily the lowest of his career.
Slot receiver Tez Johnson's health is critical to the methodical nature of the Ducks, as the former Troy receiver has recorded 44 first downs this season. Johnson was injured against Maryland in Week 11 but returned against Washington in Week 14 to catch all three targets.
His 1.9 yards per route run posted on those catches indicates the senior should be a full go for the Big Ten Championship.
Penn State vs Oregon Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and Oregon match up statistically:
Penn State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 42 | |
| Line Yards | 25 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 5 |  |
| Havoc | 12 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 15 | 35 | |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 13 | |
Oregon Offense vs. Penn State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 12 | 3 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 9 | |
| Quality Drives | 18 | 17 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 50 | 11 |
| PFF Coverage | 21 | 5 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 69 | 22 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 92 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.5 (106) | 27.1 (65) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (25) | 53% (67) |
How to Bet My Penn State vs Oregon Best Pick & Prediction
There will be pressure on Allar against a fierce Oregon defensive line.
Harmon may find success up the middle against Penn State center Nick Dawkins. No player on the offensive line has allowed more than 10 quarterback hurries, with the exception of Dawkins' season total of 17.
The good news for the Nittany Lions is Allar's ability to dodge mistakes. He hasn't committed a turnover-worthy play in 100 dropbacks with a pressured pocket.
Penn State has been most successful in rushing attempts using power run concepts. The Ducks have fallen in between mid-range and elite in terms of defending the rush.
Oregon compiled a 50% Success Rate against power but fell to 114th in Stuff Rate, so Penn State will convert short-range attempts.
Singleton is expected to keep Penn State in standard downs, as the Nittany Lions have one of the lowest number of plays in passing downs in FBS.
Kotelnicki is also expected to bring backup quarterback Beau Pribula in for several RPO plays. Pribula has been used sparingly over the second half of the season, fumbling twice in the season finale against Maryland.
The bigger concern for Oregon comes against Warren and his ability to threaten explosives from any spot on the field. A similar matchup was presented to the Ducks earlier this season against Michigan, as Wolverines tight end Colston Loveland caught seven of his nine targets for four first downs.
The Nittany Lions will have the advantage in defending the Ducks' rushing attack.
Oregon OC Will Stein uses a heavy amount of zone read, both inside and outside, for running back Jordan James. The junior has rushed for 29 touchdowns over three seasons but will face one of the elite red zone defenses.
Only Iowa has fared better in keeping rushers out of the end zone this season, as Penn State ranks second in FBS in red-zone rushing touchdowns allowed.
The Nittany Lions have been elite against inside and outside zone read, a potential hurdle for James when the Ducks are in scoring position.
With advantages in run concepts and defending the slot, Penn State should be able to capture its second Big Ten Championship since the creation of the title game in Indianapolis.
Look for Warren to capitalize against an Oregon defense that failed to create contested catches against an elite tight end from Michigan.
Pick: Penn State +3.5 or Better
Penn State vs Oregon Game Info & How To Watch
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Penn State takes on Oregon in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7 at 8 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon vs Penn State Betting Trends to Know
Oregon vs Penn State Weather Forecast
