The reigning national champion will host the No. 1 team in the AP Poll in Week 10.
After winning the 2024 national title game and putting a stamp on a two-year record of 23-1, Michigan (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) promoted offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore to bridge the program into a new era without Jim Harbaugh.
Oddsmakers posted the Wolverines' win total at 9 — a number that can only push if the team wins its remaining games.
Moore continues to call an offense for two quarterbacks with differing skills and efficiency, a consistent problem for the Wolverines this season.
Undefeated Oregon (8-0, 5-0) will head to the Midwest for the second time this season, previously covering the spread against Purdue on the Friday of Week 8.
The Ducks took home the biggest game of the Big Ten season against Ohio State in Week 7, while easily covering a 3-touchdown spread against ranked Illinois last week.
Despite Michigan not being a playoff contender, this game serves as a measuring stick for the College Football Playoff committee.
Oregon enters as a -14.5 favorite with an over/under of 45.5.
Let's dive into my Oregon vs. Michigan predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 2.
Oregon vs. Michigan Prediction and Best Bet
- Oregon vs. Michigan Pick: Michigan +16
My Oregon vs. Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Oregon vs. Michigan Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 45 -115o / -105u | -650 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 45 -115o / -105u | +450 |
Oregon vs Michigan Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch & Location
| Location: | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Oregon faces Michigan in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Nov. 2, at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan Wolverines College Football Week 10 Preview
Why Oregon Can Cover
Offensive coordinator Will Stein has Oregon cruising over the past two games. The Ducks outscored Illinois and Purdue by a combined score of 73-9.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has posted six big-time throws to a single turnover-worthy play over the past eight quarters. With 42 all-purpose touchdowns, Gabriel has been vaulted to the top of the Heisman watch.
Oregon is playing as the most efficient offense in the nation while ranking seventh in third-down conversions.
Dillon Gabriel drops back to pass, clips his nails, combs his hair, reads a book then finds Tez Johnson for the TD pass#OregonDucks#GoDucks
— CFB Saturday Slate w/ Mick N Bus (@CFB_SatSlate) October 26, 2024
The Oregon defense continues to carry the characteristics that contributed to a victory over Ohio State. The Ducks are the second-best coverage defense, per PFF, backed by a rank of sixth in opponent Passing Success Rate.
Cornerbacks Brandon Johnson and Jabbar Muhammad have combined for 12 pass breakups on the season.
The issue for defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi is defending the rush. The Ducks rank 86th in Defensive Line Yards, indicating opposing offensive lines are creating running lanes.
Tackling at the second level has also been poor, as the Ducks are 141st in broken and missed tackle rate when considering all FBS and FCS teams.
Inside zone read and man rush concepts have given the Ducks defense the most severe issues.
Why Michigan Can Cover
The quarterback carousel in Ann Arbor continues, as sixth-year senior Jack Tuttle retired from football earlier this week.
Davis Warren took over the passing attempts, while Alex Orji chipped in six rushing attempts against Michigan State.
Michigan boasts one of the worst offenses in terms of creating explosive plays and methodical possessions, ranking 110th in quality drives.
Warren completed 14-of-20 passes, but with an average depth of target at 4.4 yards, first downs came from only one of seven targets.
Tight end Colston Loveland received nearly half of the targets from Warren. The junior lines up all over the field, from in-line to wideout to the slot.
Michigan could have the worst offense in the B1G if it weren't for Colston Loveland pic.twitter.com/b0S1AwrxJU
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) October 30, 2024
Outside of the predictable passing game, Orji will continue to share carries with running back Kalel Mullings, generating the most success with outside zone and explosives with inside zone.
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has a leaky back end of the defense, ranking first in pass rush but 80th in coverage, per PFF.
This nickel defense calls blitz on 39% of snaps, creating a boom-or-bust dynamic for the Wolverines. Opponents have dominated in passing downs, as Michigan ranks 125th in stopping explosives in known passing situations.
Michigan vs. Oregon Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Oregon match up statistically:
Oregon Offense vs. Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 43 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 66 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 37 | |
| Finishing Drives | 34 | 56 | |
| Quality Drives | 16 | 65 | |
Michigan Offense vs. Oregon Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 66 | |
| Line Yards | 37 | 86 | |
| Pass Success | 87 | 6 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 39 | 43 |  |
| Quality Drives | 110 | 13 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 42 | 68 |
| PFF Coverage | 2 | 80 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 23 | 14 |
| Middle 8 | 78 | 27 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (68) | 30.8 (130) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (66) | 62% (18) |
Michigan vs. Oregon Best Bet & Pick
One element missing from the elite numbers Gabriel has posted in the last two Oregon wins is a solid pressure rate. The Oregon offensive line allowed just eight pressures against Illinois and Purdue after giving up 58 in the previous six games.
Gabriel continues to be uncomfortable in a crowded pocket, throwing a pair of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays in 47 pressured dropbacks this season.
A trio of defensive linemen in Derrick Moore, Mason Graham and Josaiah Stewart lead the Wolverines with 24 pressures apiece.
The Ducks defense has struggled against the rush far more than the pass. Illinois and Purdue each produced a Success Rate higher than 51% on rushing attempts.
Because Oregon can be caught for explosives defending inside zone, expect Orji and Mullings to get the Wolverines in position to score. Oregon's poor FBS rank in broken tackles allowed will also play a factor.
Look for Michigan's more disciplined defense to get to Gabriel, potentially forcing a turnover. Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for this spread to be lower than 17 points, giving minimal value to the home underdog.
Pick: Michigan +16
Michigan vs. Oregon Betting Trends
- 84% of bets and 90% of the money are on Oregon to cover the spread
- 92% of bets and 98% of the money on the moneyline are on Oregon to win outright
- 64% of bets and 52% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Michigan vs. Oregon Weather
