The Michigan Wolverines (5-5, 3-4 Big Ten) will take on the Northwestern Wildcats (4-6, 2-5) in Michigan Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 23, at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
The Wolverines have played some somewhat inspired football lately, covering the spread last week against Indiana and nearly knocking off the undefeated Hoosiers.
Northwestern needs two wins in its final two games to become bowl-eligible, which will be easier said than done with Illinois waiting for it after this week's contest against the Wolverines.
Michigan enters this Week 13 contest as a 10.5-point favorite on the spread, while the over/under sits at 36.5
So, where's the betting value here? Let's dive into my Michigan vs Northwestern predictions and college football picks for Saturday.
Northwestern Wildcats vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Picks
- Northwestern vs. Michigan Pick: Michigan -10.5
My Michigan vs. Northwestern best bet is on the Wolverines to cover the double-digit spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Northwestern vs Michigan Odds, Spread, Lines
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -108 | 35 -112o / -108u | +330 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -112 | 35 -112o / -108u | -425 |
- Northwestern vs Michigan Spread: Northwestern +10.5 · Michigan -10.5
- Northwestern vs Michigan Over/Under: 35
- Northwestern vs Michigan Moneyline: Northwestern ML +330 · Michigan ML -425
Northwestern Football vs Michigan Football Betting Preview
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview: Can't Do Much
There is not much that this Northwestern team can do against bigger, stronger opponents.
The Wildcats offense has been abysmal all season, ranking 120th in Rush Success Rate and 119th in Pass Success Rate. They have been able to scratch together some drives against defenses with some holes, but against quality opponents, the Wildcats have been stuck in the mud.
That is evidenced by their blowout-style losses to teams with a size advantage in the trenches. Northwestern has managed just 24 points combined in three games against Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State, while giving up 94 points to those three teams in the same span.
Defensively, the Wildcats have generally held up well against the run. Northwestern's run defense ranks 52nd nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed. That fell apart last week against Ohio State, though, as the Buckeyes averaged 5.2 yards per rush and totaled 173 yards on the ground.
If the run defense does hold, there are openings against the Northwestern secondary as well. Northwestern ranks 72nd in Pass Success Rate allowed, which could provide hope for a Michigan passing attack that has taken strides in recent weeks.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Proven Formula
After being benched earlier in the season, Michigan quarterback Davis Warren won back the job three games ago and promptly led the Wolverines to a rivalry victory over Michigan State.
Warren's most significant issue was turning the ball over earlier in the year. He threw six interceptions for just two touchdowns in his first three starts. Since winning the job back, Warren has thrown three touchdowns and zero picks.
He isn't going to wow you with his arm. Still, he is a capable game manager, precisely what Sherrone Moore is asking him to be (while hitting the recruiting trail to offer $10.5 Million to anyone who can ensure this problem never happens again).
While it isn't the most inspiring formula, it's a formula that is proven to work against outmatched opponents, and that's precisely what Northwestern is. Michigan's defense should suffocate the limited Wildcats offense, win the field position battle, and put Warren in spots to succeed.
Some would point to this game as a look-ahead spot for Michigan, a week before the rivalry matchup with Ohio State. But while the inevitable Buckeyes revenge game looms, Michigan knows they still need one more win to become bowl-eligible.
The Wolverines would be wise to ensure it happens this week and take control early to do just that.
Northwestern vs Michigan Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northwestern and Michigan match up statistically:
Northwestern Offense vs. Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 120 | 50 | |
| Line Yards | 129 | 46 | |
| Pass Success | 119 | 83 | |
| Havoc | 96 | 40 | |
| Finishing Drives | 124 | 71 | |
| Quality Drives | 115 | 77 | |
Michigan Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 72 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 51 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 97 | 72 | |
| Havoc | 81 | 76 | |
| Finishing Drives | 47 | 31 | |
| Quality Drives | 118 | 53 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 99 | 38 |
| PFF Coverage | 55 | 87 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 90 | 19 |
| Middle 8 | 123 | 44 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.2 (113) | 30.7 (130) |
| Rush Rate | 50% (96) | 60% (24) |
How to Bet My Northwestern vs Michigan Pick
Given both teams' trajectories this season, the home team that needs the bowl bid clinched should dominate here.
Any quality opponent has throttled Northwestern, and Michigan has the size and speed advantage on the lines in this one.
Back the Wolverines to win decisively here.
Pick: Michigan -10.5 (Play to -13)
Northwestern vs Michigan Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Northwestern vs Michigan will be played at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FS1.
Northwestern vs Michigan Betting Trends
Northwestern vs Michigan Weather
