Fresno State looks to pick up its second win of the season when it hosts New Mexico State.
After a historic 10-win campaign under Jerry Kill, New Mexico State is in a new era under former Aggie wide receiver Tony Sanchez.
It's a year-zero situation for New Mexico State, but it held its own as 22-point underdogs last weekend against Liberty, as it was leading heading into the fourth quarter before losing by six.
While it's basically a completely new team, the Aggies could give Fresno State similar troubles on Saturday night.
Fresno State is one of the favorites — behind Boise State — to win the Mountain West this year, but it hasn't been the best start to the season. The Bulldogs were beaten by 20 by Michigan in the opener and then only topped Sacramento State 46-30 and gave up a ton of yards.
The Bulldogs have won at least nine games in the last three seasons, but so far in 2024, they haven't looked like a team that's going to get to double-digit wins like they did in 2021 and 2022.
Here's a New Mexico State vs. Fresno State prediction and pick.
New Mexico State vs Fresno State Prediction
- New Mexico State vs Fresno State Pick: New Mexico State +20.5
My New Mexico State vs Fresno State best bet is on the Aggies spread with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico State vs Fresno State Odds, Spread, Line
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20 -108 | 47.5 -112 / -108 | +800 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-120 -1102 | 47.5 -112 / -108 | -1350 |
- Fresno State vs New Mexico State Point Spread: New Mexico State +20 · Fresno State -20
- Fresno State vs New Mexico State Total: Over/Under 47.5 (-112 / -108)
- Fresno State vs New Mexico State Moneyline: New Mexico State +800 · Fresno State -1350
New Mexico State Football vs Fresno State Football
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview: Offensive Line to Lead the Way
One thing that's not going to change under Sanchez: New Mexico State will run the football.
Against Liberty, the Aggies ran it 44 times compared to just 22 pass attempts. They did it pretty successfully, too, as their running back tandem averaged 4.4 yards per attempt against the best team in Conference USA.
Sanchez promoted special teams and tight ends coach Tyler Wright to offensive coordinator, so it's going to be the same offense that we saw under Kill.
While the skill positions got completely gutted from last season, basically the entire offensive line is back, which is massive when you're in a period of transition.
That offensive line paved the way for the Aggies to average 5.7 yards per carry on the ground last season, while ranking sixth nationally in Offensive Line Yards.
Only three starters return on the defensive side of the ball, but New Mexico State brought in a lot of transfers. The defensive line is going to take some time to rebuild, but with the transfers the Aggies brought in on the backend, they're actually just as experienced and talented as they were last season.
Although Liberty was able to move the ball at will against it, New Mexico State did an incredible job of limiting the Flames' scoring opportunities. Liberty had the ball inside the Aggies' 40-yard line on six occasions, but it only came away with 16 total points.
That's a continuation from last season when New Mexico State was 42nd in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Pressure on Keene
Jeff Tedford stepped down as head coach, which means Tim Skipper is in charge on an interim basis for the rest of the season.
There's a lot of production and continuity back on the offensive side of the ball, most notably star running back Malik Sherrod. He was amazing last season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry while posting a 81.8 PFF rushing grade.
However, he's struggled through his first two games this season. He only ran for 24 yards on 14 carries against Michigan, and against Sacrament State — which had to replace almost everyone on its defense — he was held to just 2.5 yards per carry.
In turn, there's been a lot of pressure on quarterback Mikey Keene. He struggled in the opener against Michigan, only averaging 6.5 yards per attempt with two interceptions.
He was amazing against Sacramento State, though, throwing for over 350 yards and showing his potential.
Keene had his best game of the season last year in the bowl game against New Mexico State (going 31-for-40 for 380 yards and three touchdowns), and will be looking to do the same on Saturday.
The defensive side of the ball are where the issues lie for Fresno State. It only returned five starters and grabbed only one starter via the transfer portal.
The Bulldogs did a decent job in the opener against Michigan, but Sacramento State was able to do whatever it wanted last weekend.
The Hornets put up 469 yards of offense and over 350 yards passing. They were even able to average 4.4 yards per carry and had eight trips that ended inside Fresno State's 40-yard line.
The biggest problem is the Bulldogs lost their two best linebackers from last season and didn't do a good job of replacing them. So, if New Mexico State's offensive line is able to open up running lanes, it could be able to break tackles at the second level for some big gains.
How to Bet New Mexico State vs Fresno State
These two teams met in the New Mexico Bowl at the end of last season, with Fresno State dominating the Aggies, 37-10.
That loss will without a doubt be eating at New Mexico State as it'll be out for revenge on Saturday.
What's interesting is New Mexico State was a 3.5-point favorite in that game, and while it got its doors blown off, this Fresno State team isn't much better than the one that was in the bowl game, especially defensively.
The Bulldogs' defense shut the Aggies down on that day, but they only returned five starters, didn't add much through the transfer portal and have struggled this season. That definitely gives New Mexico State a chance to have a lot more success offensively than it did in that bowl game.
The key to this game is going to be New Mexico State's offensive line. The unit did a great job against Liberty, allowing their running backs to average over four yards per carry.
The Aggies couldn't run the ball at all in the bowl game, so if they were able to do that against Liberty last week, they can control the clock and give themselves a chance to cover this big spread.
I have the Aggies projected at +14.8, so I like the value on them at +20.5.
Pick: New Mexico State +20.5
How to Watch New Mexico State vs Fresno State
| Location: | Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | truTV |
NCAAF Betting Trends for New Mexico State vs Fresno State
- 96% of the bets are on the Aggies to cover the spread while 96% of the money is on the same side.
Fresno State-NMSU Weather
