Another glorious weekday Conference USA clash is on deck in Miami, Florida, as the New Mexico State Aggies (2-5, 1-3 CUSA) take on the Florida International Panthers (2-6, 1-3).
The Aggies are coming off a bye, but they took care of business in a thrilling 33-30 overtime victory over Louisiana Tech the week prior.
Meanwhile, FIU suffered a tough loss to Sam Houston last week. The Panthers lost, 10-7, but they covered the spread in a game that saw both offenses struggle.
The quarterback situation is a mess heading into the matchup, as both teams have questions about who will start. Oddsmakers have installed the Panthers as 9.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 44.
Let's dive into my New Mexico State vs. FIU predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Oct. 29.
New Mexico State Lobos vs FIU Panthers Prediction, Picks
- New Mexico State vs. FIU Pick: New Mexico State +9.5
My FIU vs. New Mexico State best bet is on the Aggies to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico State vs FIU Odds, Betting Lines & Spread
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 44 -108o / -112u | +222 |
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 44 -108o / -112u | -278 |
- New Mexico State vs FIU Spread: FIU -7 (-115)
- New Mexico State vs FIU Over/Under: 44
- New Mexico State vs FIU Moneyline: FIU ML -278 · New Mexico State ML +222
New Mexico State Football vs FIU Football Betting Preview
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview: Path to Success
The biggest question for the Aggies heading into the matchup is who will start at quarterback. Quarterbacks Parker Awad and Brandon Nunez saw playing time in the last game against Louisiana Tech, and Nunez took over late in the third quarter.
Nunez completed 3-of-5 passes, but chipped in two touchdowns on the ground. He propelled the Aggies to victory in OT, so he's the favorite to start the game against the Panthers.
Nunez gives New Mexico State the best chance to win, which is saying little for a unit that has struggled most of the season. The Aggies are a heavy rush offense, ranking 27th in the country in rushes per game.
There are many question marks on offense, and if you take away their last victory, it's hard to say many positives about them. They enter Tuesday's game 112th in Offensive EPA and 116th in starting field position, so they've been dealt rags whenever their offense hits the field.
They can't consistently complete a forward pass, so the ground game has done most of the damage. Running back Seth McGowan has mad a big impact on the ground, averaging over five yards per carry.
The FIU secondary is its defense's strength, so I expect little success through the air for the Aggies. The Panthers rank 118th in Defensive EPA/Rush, so there's a path for the Aggies to run their methodical, run-heavy offense to establish success.
The NMSU defense has been a disaster, but the FIU offense currently deals with many issues. The Aggies get a break facing a struggling unit, and they did have a bye week to prepare for the matchup.
The one outlier is that the Aggies defense has forced its opponents into many challenging third-down situations, making life difficult for opposing offenses. Given that it's unknown who will start at quarterback for the Panthers, I give a slight bump to a New Mexico State defense that has been gashed all season.
With an extra week to prepare and install new schematic changes on both sides of the ball, the Aggies are live to win the game outright.
It will be a rough watch, but if they can establish their run game, there's a path for them to limit possessions for the Panthers and allow their defense to see the field as little as possible.
FIU Panthers Betting Preview: Who Starts at QB?
The Panthers offense failed them last week, and they had a golden opportunity to steal a home victory against a decent Sam Houston team. The Bearkats didn't have their starting quarterback available, so it would've been a great way for the Panthers to bounce back after a loss to UTEP.
Unfortunately for FIU, starting quarterback Keyone Jenkins was benched in the second quarter, and Chayden Peery played the remainder of the game. Peery threw a touchdown pass, but it was clear that the FIU offense was moving in slow motion.
I assume Jenkins will get another crack at starting, but given that the Panthers are 2-6 on the season, anything is possible.
Regardless of who starts under center, the offense has to wake up. FIU enters this matchup outside the top 115 in EPA/Rush and EPA/Pass. It has struggled to build offensive momentum, so we may see multiple quarterbacks taking snaps.
The Panthers have also been horrific on the third down, ranking near the bottom of the FBS in Success Rate on money downs. Building offensive momentum is only possible if you can move the chains on third down.
The secondary has been the unit's bright spot defensively. However, I wouldn't expect many passing attempts from the Aggies regardless of who starts at quarterback.
The Panthers also been an excellent team on third down, making it difficult for opposing offenses to convert in those situations. Ultimately, this is a good matchup for the defense with so many uncertainties on the offensive side of the ball for New Mexico.
Still, NMSU can run the ball consistently, an area where the FIU defense has struggled. If the Aggies' run game is cooking, it might be challenging for the Panthers defense to get off the field.
I can't lay the points with the FIU. There are far too many uncertainties on offense that give me cause for concern.
New Mexico State vs FIU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico State and FIU match up statistically:
New Mexico State Offense vs. FIU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 42 | 95 | |
| Line Yards | 40 | 97 | |
| Pass Success | 132 | 24 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 129 | |
| Finishing Drives | 72 | 45 | |
| Quality Drives | 124 | 73 | |
FIU Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 126 | 105 | |
| Line Yards | 132 | 103 | |
| Pass Success | 109 | 110 |  |
| Havoc | 124 | 130 | |
| Finishing Drives | 32 | 69 | |
| Quality Drives | 120 | 125 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 39 | 16 |
| PFF Coverage | 75 | 14 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 20 | 99 |
| Middle 8 | 133 | 116 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.3 (50) | 27.5 (74) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (31) | 53% (65) |
How to Make New Mexico State vs FIU Picks
There are several ways to bet the game, but my strongest lean is taking the points with New Mexico State. It should be a slow grinder of a game with both teams utilizing their rushing attacks.
It's scary given how poor the Aggies defense has been, but there's a legitimate path to cover the number and perhaps win the game outright.
At quarterback, Nunez fits the offensive scheme much better than Awad, so I wouldn't be surprised if he gets most of the snaps.
All the Aggies need to do is move the ball consistently on the ground, which will cause an excess amount of clock to burn. Playing keep-away should be the focus, which will prevent a struggling Panthers offense from having extra opportunities to put points on the board.
With a low total, I have a lot of comfort backing the Aggies getting more than a touchdown.
Pick: New Mexico State +9.5 (Play to +7)
New Mexico State vs FIU Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Pitbull Stadium, Miami FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
New Mexico takes on FIU at Pitbull Stadium in Miami on Tuesday, Oct. 29 at 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
New Mexico State vs FIU Betting Trends
- 63% of bets and 63% of the money are on FIU to cover the spread
- 90% of bets and 59% of the money on the moneyline are on FIU to win outright
- 96% of bets and 89% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
New Mexico State vs FIU Weather
