The Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-3) take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (4-6) in University Park, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, Nov. 22. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on NBC.
Penn State is favored by -8 points on the spread with a moneyline of -315. Nebraska, meanwhile, enters as a +8 underdog and is +255 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44.5 total points.
Here’s my Nebraska vs. Penn State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
Nebraska vs Penn State Prediction, Picks
- Nebraska vs. Penn State pick: Under 44.5
My Penn State vs. Nebraska best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Nebraska vs Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -108 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | +240 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -112 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -305 |
- Nebraska vs Penn State Spread: Penn State -7.5, Nebraska +7.5
- Nebraska vs Penn State Over/Under: 45.5
- Nebraska vs Penn State Moneyline: Nebraska ML +240, Penn State ML -305
Nebraska vs Penn State NCAAF Week 13 Final Odds and Prediction
Why Nebraska Will Win
Nebraska’s offense has been inconsistent all year, and I have legitimate questions about how it's going to move the ball here.
Entering the matchup, the Huskers rank 47th in EPA/Pass but have a -0.02 EPA/Rush, and now face one of the toughest schematic matchups they've seen in weeks.
You also need to throw away those EPA/Pass numbers, considering quarterback Dylan Raiola will not be under center — especially since Penn State’s defense quietly sits 30th in EPA/Pass allowed and an even more impressive 28th in Early Downs EPA allowed.
What does this all mean? Nebraska will struggle to create early-down leverage, which is something it will miss without Raiola.
Those long conversion attempts tend to lead to punts, and Nebraska already ranks in the bottom tier nationally in generating explosives. Even its best drives tend to be slow, multi-play, clock-draining efforts.
Why Penn State Will Win
Penn State’s offense isn’t the type to blow this game open. It's led by an elite running game through running backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, which has it 32nd in EPA/Rush.
The Nittany Lions benefited from a lot of Michigan State mistakes last week, so their offensive performance was not as great as many may think.
The only takeaway I had was that they were able to run the ball all over the Spartans but still struggled to build consistent drives against a terrible defense.
And the matchup gets tougher when factoring in Nebraska’s defense, which is elite against the pass, entering the game 20th in EPA/Pass Allowed and top-35 in suppressing drive efficiency.
Penn State actually thrives on manageable third downs, ranking fourth-best nationally.
It leads to methodical, multi-play drives instead of explosive scoring sequences.
How To Bet My Nebraska vs Penn State Pick and Best Bet
When you zoom out and look at Nebraska-Penn State from every analytical and situational angle, the case for the under only gets stronger because this matchup profiles as a slow, grind-it-out game where neither offense is built to play with tempo or aggression.
I also have questions about motivation from the Nebraska side with Raiola out for the remainder of the season.
Nebraska knows it cannot win a shootout here. The Huskers’ clearest path is shortening the game, leaning on defense and limiting possessions. That's a formula that head coach Matt Rhule has embraced in similar matchups this season.
That means conservative play-calling, field-position trading and a heavy emphasis on avoiding turnovers rather than taking risks. Penn State also has no incentive to run this score up.
PSU is better off controlling the clock, leaning on their defense, and grinding the game into the fourth quarter rather than expanding the playbook against a Nebraska unit that thrives on forcing mistakes.
Add in the fact that Nebraska’s quarterback situation remains a huge question mark, which severely caps its explosive pass ceiling, and PSU’s offense still lacks high-end explosive weapons.
I just sense that this becomes a matchup where both coaching staffs are naturally pulled toward ball control and a battle for field position.
When you combine two offenses that don’t generate explosives, two defenses that match up well against their counterparts’ strengths, long third-down situations and slow chain-moving from Penn State, there's a lot to like about grabbing the under.
You will likely see a conservative game plan on both sidelines and little reason for either team to push tempo. That adds up to a low-scoring contest. This is a great opportunity to snag the under before it dips further below any key numbers.
Pick: Under 44.5
Nebraska vs Penn State Betting Trends to Watch
