We start the Week 10 college football slate with my five Saturday afternoon spots, includingNCAAF picks and predictions for Saturday, November 2.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 10, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 38-33-1 (53.5%)
- Overall: 137-103-2 (57.1%)
NCAAF Predictions, Picks for Week 10
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Air Force +23.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Minnesota -2.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Purdue +1.5 |
  | 12:45 p.m. | Auburn -6 |
  | 4 p.m. | Rice +12 |
Air Force +23.5 at Army
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
Depending on what number you got in the Army vs. East Carolina game, this game will feature the only undefeated ATS team (Army) against an Air Force squad that has yet to cover (0-7 ATS). You don't see that too often this late in the season.
For starters, large underdogs in service academy matchups will almost always pique my interest. Since 2005, underdogs in service academy matchups have gone 34-22-2 (60.7%) ATS, covering by 2.6 points per game.
That includes a perfect 3-0 ATS when getting at least 17 points, covering by more than 20 points per game in large part due to Army's upset of Air Force out west just last season.
In that game, Air Force came in ranked with a perfect 8-0 record (sound familiar?) but turned the ball over six times en route to a blowout loss as an 18-point favorite.
I had to back Army out of principle in that game and must do so again with Air Force in a matchup with a spread differential of over 40 points in the span of one season. You also don't see that too often!
There's no doubt the Black Knights, led by quarterback Bryson Daily, have dominated every week en route to a blemish-free 7-0 record.
However, they have certainly played a laughable schedule to date. In fact, per Sagarin, which includes FCS teams, Army's strength of schedule ranks 145th in the nation. Just take a look at its wins:
- Lehigh
- Florida Atlantic
- Rice
- Temple
- Tulsa
- UAB
- ECU
Those teams have a combined 9-33 record (21.4%) against FBS foes with one of those nine victories coming in a head-to-head matchup between Temple and Tulsa.
Additionally, Army has significant negative regression looming on the horizon in terms of red-zone efficiency and turnovers — similar to what we saw last week with Navy (and Air Force last year in this exact matchup with the roles reversed).
Opponents are eventually going to convert a fourth down or score points in the red zone against Army, which has held opponents to a national-low 53.3% scoring conversion rate inside the 20 and stopped 14-of-21 fourth-down attempts.
In fairness, Air Force is just as bad — if not worse — than many of those teams listed, so there's certainly a chance Army blows out another inferior opponent.
However, this is still a matchup between two slow-tempo, run-heavy service academies with a total of 41.
The possessions will be extremely limited, making it harder for a large favorite to cover a big number. Plus, both defenses have supreme familiarity when it comes to defending the triple option since they face it every single day in practice.
This is a rare lost season for Air Force after starting out 1-6 for the first time since 2013 when it finished an uncharacteristic 2-10 under head coach Troy Calhoun.
After already losing to Navy, this essentially becomes its Super Bowl similar to that 2013 season when it beat Army as a small home underdog following a disastrous 1-7 start.
I expect a fiery effort from the Falcons, who will be out to exact revenge on the Black Knights for that embarrassing 2023 defeat when they came in undefeated with all of the national hype against a 2-5 struggling Army team that had just lost at home to UMass.
The bye week should also serve them well after basically hitting the full roster reset button in the offseason. Amazingly, they have started 37 different players so far this season.
Despite the super soft schedule, Army's defensive metrics leave a lot to be desired, especially against the run (92nd in Success Rate), where Air Force will look to capitalize — although, again, this one profiles as a complete slog on both ends.
The Falcons also pivoted to using two of their more mobile quarterbacks prior to the bye before both got banged up. I'm not sure about the status of Josh Johnson, but Calhoun confirmed the availability of Quentin Hayes, who I believe is the best option under center at the moment. He should provide a much-needed spark on the ground with his legs.
In a game that profiles to have an extremely limited number of possessions, it should only take a turnover or a couple of red-zone stops for Air Force to stay within this number, assuming it can sustain just a tad bit of offense.
For what it's worth, this will mark the largest spread between service academies in our Action Labs database, dating back 20 seasons. It will surpass the previous high of 21, which came back in 2015 when a 2-9 Army team only lost by four to a ranked Navy squad.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, as underdogs of more than three touchdowns, service academies have gone a sparkling 19-5-1 (79.2%) ATS, covering by just under a touchdown per game.
Additionally, FBS road underdogs of 21-plus with a total of less than 45 have gone 52-33-2 (61.2%) ATS, covering by an average margin of 3.5 points.
Projection: Air Force +20.8
Pick: Air Force +22.5
| | | | |
Minnesota -2.5 at Illinois
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
I don't think enough people are aware of how well Minnesota has played over the past month. The Gophers, who could easily be 7-1 on the season if you change two special teams plays, are finally fully healthy.
Meanwhile, Illinois has been one of the luckiest teams in the country with the second-highest delta between actual wins and second-order wins, trailing only the walking horseshoe Arkansas State.
The Illini have gone 3-0 in one-possession games, which includes a pair of overtime wins. On the season, they actually rank 85th in non-garbage time net yards per play margin (-0.5) against FBS foes, while Minnesota sits at 32nd overall with a similar strength of schedule.
Minnesota quarterback Max Brosmer — fresh off his best game of the season by far — has now fully picked up the offense after transferring in from New Hampshire and has recently developed great chemistry with star wide receiver Daniel Jackson.
Brosmer is one of only three quarterbacks (minimum 200 dropbacks) with an Adjusted Completion Percentage of at least 80% — along with Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel. He's also not putting the ball in harm's way.
Meanwhile, the defense has remained stout throughout 2024 with the exception of one half against Iowa. The Gophers are one of only 13 teams allowing fewer than 17 points per game.
New defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman has worked wonders on that side of the ball by simplifying things from a schematic perspective, which has led to a drastic reduction in coverage busts and miscommunication issues that plagued the defense last year.
The pass defense has thrived with the cornerback tandem of Justin Walley and Ethan Robinson along with safety Koi Perich, who headline a coverage unit that ranks 13th in EPA per Pass.
The run defense has been a bit more vulnerable, but that's not as big of a concern against a fairly inefficient Illinois rushing attack that lost its leading rusher to a season-ending injury.
Plus, Minnesota has been extremely unlucky on late downs when you look at its much more predictive early downs data.
The engine of the Illinois offense is its star wide receiver duo of Zakhari Franklin and Pat Bryant.
Not only can Minnesota match up, as it did against a few other passing attacks on its schedule, but Bryant — who had the nation's highest passer rating when targeted going into last week — suffered a concussion last week in the loss at Oregon.
His potential absence would serve as a major blow to the Illini offense. Plus, Luke Altmyer likely has more turnover regression coming his way.
Even after last week's two-interception performance, he has 15 touchdown passes to just three interceptions on the season despite 10 Big-Time Throws to 11 Turnover-Worthy Plays, per PFF. Last year, he had basically a 1:1 ratio of both with 10 interceptions on nine Turnover-Worthy Plays.
This is a tough spot for the Illini after that humiliating loss in Eugene. That loss pretty much ended all outside hope of a surprise Big Ten title run, and they got extremely beat up physically, especially in the secondary where they even had to play a wide receiver at one point during last week's loss.
It was already an underwhelming defense from an analytics standpoint that just really benefited from turnovers prior to last week.
Give me Minnesota in the early time slot on the road against a beat-up Illini squad. I think the Gophers get their revenge from last year's one-point loss that came on a touchdown pass in the final minute after Illinois converted on fourth-and-11.
Notable Nugget
During his tenure at Illinois, head coach Bret Bielema is just 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) at home, including 5-11 (31.3%) in conference play.
Projection: Minnesota -3.4
Pick: Minnesota -2.5 or Better (-115)
| | | | |
Purdue +1.5 vs. Northwestern
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
From a spot perspective, Northwestern will play for a fifth straight week in its second consecutive road game, while Purdue will have 15 days of preparation and rest after playing on Friday night before its bye week.
That break should serve the Boilermakers well after they fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell earlier this season.
Yes, they've been as bad as you can possibly be for a Power 4 team to date, but they've also played one of the most difficult schedules in the country so far and have been a bit unlucky in terms of turnovers, fourth downs (1-for-8) and red-zone efficiency.
Head coach Ryan Walters took over play-calling duties the past two games, and the offense finally showed signs of life — primarily as a result of increasing the use of the quarterback run game.
That has made the entire ground game much more potent behind a decent offensive line and a pair of dynamic backs in Reggie Love III and Devin Mockobee.
That should provide useful against a bend-don't-break Northwestern defense that excels at limiting explosive plays, but that doesn't really matter as much against this methodical Purdue offense.
For what it's worth, Walters expects to use both Hudson Card (who will return from injury) and Ryan Browne under center this week, which makes the prep a bit tougher for Northwestern.
This is also still an offense that ranks in the top 30 in Success Rate even with a top-10 strength of schedule.
Meanwhile, Northwestern made a change at quarterback earlier this season, going from Mike Wright to Jack Lausch, who has regressed hard after providing an initial spark to the offense.
Over the past two games — both lopsided losses — Lausch has gone 19-43 for 144 yards with no touchdowns and a pair of interceptions.
Lausch will start again this week, but it's worth noting that the Wildcats turned to Ryan Hilinski in the second half last week. Either way, this offense is in a complete state of disarray. I'm just not sure it can fully exploit a very poor Purdue defense.
In a battle between two offenses headed in completely opposite directions, give me the small home 'dog off of a bye week that should come out hungry for its first (and probably last) opportunity for a Big Ten win in 2024 with a remaining schedule that includes Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana and Penn State with only the latter coming at home.
Notable Nugget
Excluding the COVID season, this will mark the first time Northwestern is laying points on the road in Big Ten play since 2018.
Projection: Purdue -2.1
Pick: Purdue +1.5 (Play to PK)
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Auburn -6 vs. Vanderbilt
12:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
Diego Pavia has officially put Vanderbilt back on the map. Look no further than the 'Dores catching single digits on the road in league play — which hasn't happened since 2017.
However, Pavia has taken his fair share of lumps during a brutal October stretch that included close games against Kentucky, Texas and Alabama.
Pavia will suit up but is far from 100% healthy with numerous ailments, including injuries to his shoulder and knee, which really limited his mobility late against the Longhorns.
Plus, this offense is just not the same without a fully mobile Pavia having the ability to create magic on third downs, where the Commodores rank in the top 10 nationally.
Not only does regression loom in that department but also when it comes to turnovers. On the season, Vanderbilt has a +5 turnover margin (Auburn is at -9) in part due to recovering 75% of its fumbles.
Ultimately, I just can't get to this number. Take away a few turnovers at critical moments, and this Auburn team is potentially sitting at 6-2 or maybe even 7-1 against a tougher overall schedule than Vanderbilt.
And despite that more difficult slate, Auburn still sits in the top 30 nationally in net yards per play (+1.06) against FBS competition in non-garbage time, while the Dores rank 82nd — just ahead of Western Kentucky and Rice.
Instead, the Tigers come in at 3-5 against everybody's favorite underdog, which I think is creating some value in a game I project closer to 10 than seven.
Trust me, I have loved Vanderbilt as an underdog all season, but it's a different story at this price compared to catching double digits as a quasi-SEC service academy.
Plus, this is a pretty important game for Auburn ahead of its bye week.
Not only does it basically need to win this game for any shot at a bowl, but it will be out for revenge after Pavia, Jerry Kill, Eli Stowers and New Mexico State embarrassed Auburn on its home field last season as massive underdogs. I'm sure Auburn has had this game circled since fall camp.
I can't imagine Auburn comes out flat against a still very vulnerable Vandy defense outside of the safety and slot positions and an offensive line that can still be pushed around.
For reference, I have Vanderbilt's defense rated right around the national average, while Auburn has a top-25 stop unit. It also doesn't hurt that Auburn got to see this unique Pavia offense just last season.
Notable Nugget
In SEC play, Auburn is 17-9 ATS (65.4%) as a single-digit home favorite since 2005, covering by 3.2 points per game.
Projection: Auburn -9.4
Pick: Auburn -6 (Play to -7)
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Rice +12 vs. Navy
4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
The service academies don't usually fall victim to situational spots.
However, it's certainly possible Navy comes out a bit flat in front of an empty crowd in Rice Stadium the week after losing its first game of the season to Notre Dame, which all but ends its outside shot at a College Football Playoff berth.
I should first mention the quarterback news in this game since I'm taking a bit of a leap of faith, especially with Rice.
I'm assuming starting quarterback EJ Warner will return to the lineup this week after missing last week's loss to UConn with an injury. A true freshman got the start in his place, and the Owls offense was predictably lifeless.
After transferring in from Temple, Warner had started to play better in the new system before his minor injury.
That's actually true for the entire Rice team, which has trended in a positive direction following its bye week (sans last week, which you can essentially throw out the window without Warner) with a win over UTSA and a misleading final score loss to Tulane.
In that game against the Green Wave, which was tied in the fourth quarter, the Owls actually finished with more total yards but couldn't overcome a -5 turnover margin (0-5).
In those two contests, Warner threw for 618 combined yards, leading an offense that surprisingly has the third-highest passing rate in the country.
Speaking of turnovers, on the season, Rice has a -8 turnover margin and has scored on only 64% of its red zone trips (only Houston has a worse percentage), including just 11 touchdowns on 25 trips inside the 20-yard line.
Meanwhile, even after last week's disastrous result against Notre Dame, the Midshipmen rank in the top 10 nationally in red-zone scoring rate on both sides of the ball and still boast a +6 turnover margin.
There's no doubt that Rice has been quite unfortunate in a number of high-variance areas, while the opposite is true for Navy.
Like last week, the turnovers could also rear their ugly head again, especially if quarterback Blake Horvath's thumb injury is limiting in any way. In fact, Horvath also missed time last year with a thumb injury.
While he should play this week, it could certainly be an issue against a Rice defense that has already faced another service academy earlier this season and has faced a bevy of mobile quarterbacks.
There's also hope Rice can get its ground game going to help Warner out against a Navy defense that ranks 122nd in Rush Success Rate even with a strength of schedule that ranks 132nd in the country.
The pass defense numbers look very good, but keep in mind the Midshipmen also played a schedule filled with completely inept aerial attacks outside of Notre Dame and Memphis, which combined for 95 points.
I like backing bigger 2-6 underdogs that have shown signs of improvement.
This is really the Owls' last gasp at keeping their bowl hopes alive. Plus, this week, Rice might have some extra juice and new wrinkles under a new interim head coach after firing Mike Bloomgren earlier this week.
There's definitely a lot of uncertainty in this game with the coaching change and both quarterbacks dealing with injuries, but I couldn't pass up this line.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, only Kansas State has turned a bigger profit at home in conference play than the Owls, who have gone 44-28-4 (61.1%) over that span.
Projection: Rice +8.9
Pick: Rice +12 (Play to +10.5)
