All the media wants to do is talk about the big, bad blue-blood programs. That remains true in Week 9.
Which teams are going to make the College Football Playoff? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Denton, Texas, and Laramie, Wyoming.
While our fields may be blue, gray, or teal, the money won on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As Action Network’s resident Group of 5 guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often overlooked teams and matchups while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
Here are my two favorite NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Saturday, October 18.
Temple vs Tulsa Pick
| Temple Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
Temple is a significantly better team than Tulsa.
The Owls have shown massive improvement in their first season under K.C. Keeler. They have conference wins over UTSA and Charlotte. They also should have beaten Navy. They dominated the game but lost on a late 50-yard touchdown and a successful two-point conversion.
Quarterback Evan Simon has been tremendous. The Rutgers transfer has thrown 16 touchdown passes without a single interception. He has the best TD-INT ratio in the nation. Simon has a pair of receivers in Jojo Bermudez and Kajiya Hollawayne, plus tight end Peter Clark,e all averaging at least 40 receiving yards per game.
Running backs Jevyon Ducker and Hunter Smith both average over 5.7 yards per carry, plus Simon can move around well and pick up first downs with his legs. Temple ranks 17th nationally in Success Rate. Not only do they move the ball well, but they cash in on those scoring opportunities at an elite rate.
Temple’s defense has also taken a massive step forward this season, ranking 15th nationally in Success Rate allowed. That includes games against Oklahoma and Georgia Tech. Cam’Ron Stewart is a game-wrecker on the outside, and Damien Ordonez has been terrific in the middle.
Tulsa has not shown the same quick improvements under its new coaching staff. The Golden Hurricane are 2-5 with their lone win coming against the corpse of Oklahoma State. They are 0-4 in conference play, getting blown out by an average of 22 points per game, with at least a two-touchdown difference in every contest.
Quarterback Kirk Francis got hurt and missed a few weeks, but after returning against Memphis, he has seemingly lost his job to freshman Baylor Hayes. While Hayes has been more effective, he is still averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt and is not somebody who strikes fear into opposing defenses.
The Golden Hurricane also cannot run the ball at all, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in Rush Success Rate, which is where you would want to attack the Temple defense.
The schedule has been demanding for Tulsa, so you have to grade them on a curve. Still, the defense has been torched for five straight weeks. The Hurricane have allowed more than six yards per play against conference opponents and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns across the past three games.
Conference foes are averaging 39.8 points per game against Tulsa.
You can look at the strength of schedule, but this is not your father’s Temple team. The Owls sit fifth in the American in points per game and should be 3-0 in conference play. Temple is 6-1 against the spread this season and 3-0 as a favorite.
Pick: Temple -5.5 (-110, bet365)
Western Michigan vs Miami (OH) Pick
| W. Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | -125 |
If you have not bought Miami (OH) stock yet, you should.
The RedHawks started the year on the road against a pair of Big 10 teams in Wisconsin and Rutgers, and then faced UNLV. After an 0-3 start, they were pushed to the back of everybody’s mind.
But as Chuck Martin teams always do, they got off the mat, rattled off four straight wins, and are tied atop the MAC standings at 3-0 in conference play.
Quarterback Dequan Finn is a veteran leader with a MAC Championship under his belt. Finn is dangerous with his arm and his legs, leading the RedHawks in rushing alongside Jordan Brunson and freshman D’Shawntae Jones, who stepped up with Kenny Tracy going down.
Miami is going to do what it always does. The RedHawks run the ball well, and they play great defense, limiting big plays as well as any team in the country.
Western Michigan has done the same thing.
Like the RedHawks, the Broncos' leading rusher is also their quarterback, Broc Lowry. Lowry has been efficient as a passer but much more dangerous with his legs. Jalen Buckley has not looked as explosive as last year, but he is still a very talented back.
Western Michigan also started 0-3 with a demanding schedule, but has turned things around and is on a four-game winning streak.
This game is the Spiderman meme played out in real life. These teams are spitting images of each other.
But I trust the RedHawks more.
We have seen Martin’s teams win these close, losing scoring games year after year. Finn is an experienced veteran, and I trust him more than Lowry.
Western Michigan ranks 131st nationally in Success Rate, relying on explosives to score.
Meanwhile, Miami ranks in the top 25 nationally at preventing Explosives.
These teams do a lot of the same things, but Miami does it all better.
Our Action Network Power Ratings make Miami (OH) a six-point favorite.
Lay the short number and trust Chuck Martin.
Pick: Miami (OH) -1.5 (-110, bet365)
