Week 14 brings us a Black Friday matchup where the Navy Midshipmen (7-3, 5-2 AAC) visit the East Carolina Pirates (7-4, 5-2 AAC) at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, North Carolina. Friday's kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Midshipmen are on a bit of a skid, dropping 3 of their last 5 games, while East Carolina has hit its stride with 4 wins in its last 5 games.
Navy has gotten the best of East Carolina in their recent matchups, taking 4 of the last 5, including a 10-0 win a year ago. Can the Pirates get over the hump and win as favorites, or will the Midshipmen continue to dominate this matchup?
East Carolina enters as a small -2.5 point favorite at home with an over/under of 56 points.
Let's take a look at my Navy vs. East Carolina predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 29.
Navy vs East Carolina Prediction and Best Bet
- Navy vs East Carolina Pick: Navy ML +115
My East Carolina vs. Navy best bet is on the Midshipmen to win the game outright, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Navy vs East Carolina Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 56 -110 / -110 | +115 |
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 56 -110 / -110 | -135 |
- Navy vs East Carolina Spread: Navy +2.5 (-105) · East Carolina -2.5 (-115)
- Navy vs East Carolina Over/Under: 56
- Navy vs East Carolina Moneyline: Navy +115 · East Carolina -135
Navy vs East Carolina Spread and Over/Under Analysis
Navy Midshipmen Betting Preview: Everything Revolves Around the Offense
Brian Newberry is in Year 2 in Annapolis and has taken a step in the right direction with his team now bowl-eligible after missing out a year ago. I think this game proves to be important for his team to get back on track before a big rivalry matchup with Army in a few weeks.
Navy’s offense is a difficult one to plan against, as it averages 32.1 points per game on the year with a very balanced attack.
A lot of this offense rests in the hands of starting quarterback Blake Horvath, who runs a lot of option run plays. However, Braxton Woodson saw most of the action in the Mids' last game against Tulane, so keep an eye on Horvath's status.
This team's bread and butter is running the football, where it ranks third in Rush Rate and 39th in Rush Success Rate.
This offense just possesses the ball and mixes up looks to get its 4-5 yards per carry.
Horvath has used this expectation to his advantage, as he has this offense ranking third in Pass Explosiveness and 44th in Pass Success Rate on play-action looks.
The Midshipmen are a tough matchup for any team, and I expect them to be laser-focused this week to get some momentum.
They've been pretty solid on defense as well, allowing 23.5 points per game.
A lot of the success can be attributed to their offense’s ability to maintain time of possession, keeping them well-rested. That's not the whole story, however.
The Midshipmen rank 19th in Success Rate allowed. They stifle any consistent offense, but the problem they've had is limiting the chunk plays, sitting 95th in Explosiveness allowed.
If they can limit big plays, they will have every opportunity to win one on the road here.
East Carolina Pirates Betting Preview: New Life in Greenville
East Carolina made a big decision to fire head coach Mike Houston and promote Blake Harrell to interim head coach for the remainder of the season. Since becoming interim head coach, he has led the Pirates to a 4-0 record and earned himself a full-time head coaching job in Greenville.
East Carolina has put up quite a few points this year, averaging 33.6 points per game.
Quarterback Katin Houser has led this offense of late, but much like Jake Garcia, he's had turnover issues. That has forced this team into shootouts, so its points-per-game numbers may be a bit misleading.
East Carolina has struggled running the football, ranking 97th in Rush Success Rate and 100th in Rush Explosiveness. Houser will need to take care of the football in this one to keep the Pirates within striking distance.
East Carolina’s defense surprisingly matches up very well with Navy this week.
This defense allows 27.3 points per game on the year, but that's a bit misleading given the offense’s turnover issues.
The Pirates rank 10th in Rush Success Rate allowed and sixth in Rush Explosiveness allowed. They should be able to slow and at least contain the Navy attack this week, making the Mids a bit uncomfortable.
I do worry that East Carolina’s pass defense won't be strong enough to win this game given they rank 91st in Pass Success Rate allowed and 100th in Pass Explosiveness allowed. They'll need to be better and limit Navy's play-action success to win this one.
Navy vs East Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Navy and East Carolina match up statistically:
Navy Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 39 | 10 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 5 | |
| Pass Success | 109 | 91 | |
| Havoc | 27 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 14 | 80 | |
| Quality Drives | 67 | 46 | |
East Carolina Offense vs. Navy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 62 | 109 | |
| Line Yards | 81 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 41 | 16 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 89 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 41 | |
| Quality Drives | 72 | 32 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 38 | 78 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 53 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 79 | 55 |
| Middle 8 | 11 | 42 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.2 (125) | 21.9 (2) |
| Rush Rate | 77% (3) | 52% (68) |
Navy vs East Carolina Pick & Prediction
Ultimately, I think this game will mean more for Navy, and East Carolina may be a bit distracted with the new coaching hire.
I expect Navy’s offense to find a bit of success and emerge late, especially off some key turnovers. I'll take the Midshipmen to win this one outright late behind the ground game and play-action passing.
Pick: Navy ML +115
Navy vs East Carolina Game Info and How To Watch
| Location: | Dowdy–Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Navy takes on East Carolina in Greenville on Friday, Nov. 29 at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Navy vs East Carolina Betting Trends To Know
East Carolina vs Navy Weather
