The No. 16 LSU Tigers and South Carolina Gamecocks meet in Columbia to open SEC play on Saturday. It's an early one, as LSU vs. South Carolina starts at 12 p.m. ET. The game is on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
LSU is a consensus 6-point favorite over South Carolina with less than an hour before kickoff, meaning the Tigers (-6) are favored to win by six points. The over/under is currently hovering at 48 total points scored, with LSU (1-1 so far in 2024) a -250 favorite on the moneyline and South Carolina (2-0 this season) +2o5 to pull off the upset victory at home.
LSU is coming off a 44-21 win over Nicholls State last week in which the Tigers failed to cover the 46.5-point spread. South Carolina pulled off a 31-6 upset victory over Kentucky last Saturday in a game where the Gamecocks were 9.5-point underdogs.
Here's my LSU vs. South Carolina predictions and my college football picks and predictions for Week 3 on Saturday.
LSU vs. South Carolina Odds, Picks, Prediction
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -112 | 48 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| S. Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -108 | 48 -110o / -110u | +205 |
- LSU vs. South Carolina Spread: LSU -6
- LSU vs. South Carolina Over/Under: 48 points
- LSU vs. South Carolina Moneyline: LSU -250, South Carolina +205
- LSU vs. South Carolina Pick: 1H Under 24.5
My South Carolina vs. LSU best bet is on the first-half under with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
LSU Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks College Football Preview
LSU Football
LSU is introducing a new quarterback and offensive coordinator, but the good news is that they're familiar faces. Joe Sloan has been promoted from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator, and Garrett Nussmeier, who backed up Jayden Daniels, is now the starting quarterback.
Despite losing the opening game to LSU, Nussmeier was solid, throwing for over 300 yards and had an 81.2 Pro Football Focus passing grade. He followed that up with six touchdown passes against Nicholls State last week. He has a lot of new faces on the offensive side of the ball, but there's plenty of talent around Nussmeier.
The problem with LSU's offense is running the football. John Emery Jr. was the lead back against USC but tore his ACL and is done for the season, which means Kaleb Jackson and Josh Williams will be the tandem backs. However, the Tigers were only able to average 3.2 yards per carry on the ground against Nicholls State on Saturday.
LSU's defense could not stop anyone last year, and things don't look any better in 2024. The Tigers did a decent job of stopping the run against the Trojans, but Miller Moss threw for over 10 yards per attempt. The Tigers only lost one starter in the secondary, but depth is a big concern.
They will face a good rushing attack from South Carolina, and Nicholls pushed them around a bit, averaging 3.1 line yards per rush. That is a continuation from last season when LSU ranked 113th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed, so there are a lot of concerns about how they will stop Rahiem Sanders.
South Carolina Football
The Gamecocks lost a lot on the offensive side of the ball from last season, most notably Spencer Rattler at quarterback. His backup, LaNorris Sellers, is now the starter and has been okay in their first few games. Sellers is a lot more limited of a passer than Rattler was, as he only attempted 14 passes against Kentucky and went a dismal 9-for-23 for 106 yards in the opener against Old Dominion.
For South Carolina to be successful on offense, they have to be able to run the football. Beamer snagged Rahiem Sanders from Arkansas in the portal, who dealt with some injuries last season. But when he was the main guy in 2022, he had an 87.4 Pro Football Focus rushing grade and averaged over six yards per carry.
The good news for him is that he has a good offensive line in front of him, and he only lost one starter from last year's team. While they have a lot coming back on the offensive line, they were outside the top 100 in offensive line yards. It seems there haven't been many improvements, as the line ranks 87th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades through two weeks.
The biggest problem for South Carolina is what happens if Norris is forced to throw the ball more than 25 times. He's a big-time dual-threat quarterback, but he clearly is very limited right now. So, if South Carolina cannot run the football, I am not sure it can hang in this game.
What South Carolina did show against Kentucky is how loaded their defense is. They brought back six of their top seven tacklers from last season and are incredibly stout on their defensive front. Kentucky tried to run the ball at a high rate and got nowhere, as they could only average 3.0 yards per carry.
The Gamecocks' secondary did a great job against Old Dominion's Grant Wilson, who threw the ball nearly forty times. They held him to under 200 yards passing and two interceptions.
LSU vs. South Carolina Pick: Bet the First Half Under
The biggest key to this game is how effectively South Carolina runs the football.
LSU's defensive front was terrible last season, and even though they held USC in the opener on the ground, they do not project to have vast improvement coming into this season. If Raheim Sanders finds running room, the Gamecocks can control the clock.
South Carolina's offensive coordinator, Dowell Loggains, has dialed back the tempo for the Gamecocks. Last year, the Gamecocks averaged 24.7 seconds per play, but through two games this season, they're averaging 27.8 seconds. They could be playing with a lead for a majority of those two games, so if they fall behind, I think you will see them pick up the tempo closer to what it was last season.
LSU played at an incredibly slow pace against USC, running a play at well over a 30-second average, which is a big change from last season. I am not sure the Tigers will be able to run the ball effectively without their best running backs against an incredibly stout South Carolina defensive front with the best Pro Football Focus pass-rushing grade in the country through two weeks.
The pace will likely be pretty slow early on, especially with South Carolina wanting to establish its rushing attack, so I like the value on the first half under 24.5 points.
Pick: 1H Under 24.5
| Location: | Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
LSU vs. South Carolina Betting Trends
- LSU is 0-2 against the spread this season.
- South Carolina is 2-0 straight up but 0-2 ATS this year.
- LSU is 2-0 to the Over this season.
- South Carolina is 2-0 to the Under this year.
