The Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) and Michigan State Spartans (3-3, 1-2) are set to face off in a Big Ten matchup in East Lansing on Saturday.
This game will air from Spartan Stadium on NBC and Peacock at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Iowa is a 5.5-point favorite on the road in a game with an over/under set at just 39.5 points.
This will be a tough conference game for Iowa, but if it's as good as I think it might be, it should come out of East Lansing with a win in this matchup.
Let’s dive into my Iowa vs. Michigan State predictions and college football picks for this NCAAF Week 8 game.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction
My Iowa vs Michigan State best bet is on the Hawkeyes to cover the 6.5-point spread at Caesars.
- Michigan State-Iowa Pick: Iowa -6.5
Iowa vs Michigan State Odds, Betting Lines, Spread
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 39.5 -105o / -115u | -275 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 39.5 -105o / -115u | +225 |
- Iowa vs Michigan State Spread: Iowa -7 · Michigan State +7)
- Iowa vs Michigan State Over/Under: 39.5 Points
- Iowa vs Michigan State Moneyline: Iowa -275 · Michigan State +225
Iowa vs Michigan State NCAAF Week 8 Preview
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview
Iowa’s offense has looked much improved against almost every team on its schedule this season.
In its four wins, the Hawkeyes scored 30 or more points against Illinois State, Troy, Minnesota, and Washington — although they were held to just 19 and 7 against Iowa State and Ohio State, respectively.
Iowa currently ranks 41st in Success Rate, a far cry from where they have been in the last number of years. They also rank 104th in Explosiveness and 87th in Finishing Drives, as they haven’t been punching the ball in often despite being successful down to down.
Iowa’s rushing game has fueled the offense, ranking 47th in Rush Success Rate and 64th in Rush PPA. Running back Kaleb Johnson has 843 yards on 101 carries with 11 touchdowns this year.
They have also been better through the air, ranking 43rd in Pass Success Rate — although just 77th in Pass PPA and 112th in Pass Explosiveness. Their offensive line has been dominant, ranking 25th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades and 14th in PFF’s Run Blocking grades.
Defensively, Iowa has been above average once again, but maybe not quite where we have come to expect from them. They rank 44th in Success Rate allowed, 25th in Explosiveness allowed, and 27th in Defensive Finishing Drives. The defense is still ranked second nationally by SP+.
The Hawkeyes have been the best team in the country at preventing explosive runs. They rank 62nd in Rush Success Rate allowed, and 19th in Rush PPA allowed. Much of this comes from their ability to be a sound tackling team, as they rank fifth in PFF’s Tackling grades.
Iowa ranks 36th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 50th in Pass PPA allowed. They have struggled with explosives, ranking 109th in Pass Explosiveness allowed. This is PFF’s top-rated coverage unit; they are also 18th in PFF’s Pass Rushing grades.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
Michigan State is in the midst of its toughest stretch of the season and is coming off a well-deserved bye week after facing Ohio State and Oregon.
Iowa is a step down from these two teams but still not a pushover.
The Spartans rank 84th in Success Rate this season and 107th in Finishing Drives. They run the ball 52% of the time and rank 77th in Rush Success Rate, 99th in Rush PPA, and 38th in Rush Explosiveness.
Michigan State ranks just 85th in Pass Success Rate but 49th in Pass PPA and 53rd in Pass Explosiveness. Quarterback Aidan Chiles is averaging -0.04 EPA per dropback this season, which is surprisingly only slightly below average. He has thrown eight interceptions to five touchdowns and been sacked 11 times.
This defense has been strong despite their tough schedule. They rank 20th in Success Rate allowed and eighth in Defensive Finishing Drives.
The Spartans have struggled with allowing big plays, ranking 106th in Explosiveness allowed primarily from their pass defense that ranks 117th in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
This team is better against the run overall. They rank 12th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 10th in Rush PPA allowed, compared to 47th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 45th in Pass PPA allowed.
Michigan State vs Iowa Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan State and Iowa match up statistically:
Iowa Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 60 | 43 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 97 | 26 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 57 |  |
Michigan State Offense vs. Iowa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 75 | 79 | |
| Line Yards | 119 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 83 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 123 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 128 | 60 | |
| Quality Drives | 64 | 11 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 5 | 99 |
| PFF Coverage | 1 | 117 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 23 | 3 |
| Middle 8 | 46 | 104 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.7 (121) | 29.4 (114) |
| Rush Rate | 63% (18) | 52% (75) |
How to Bet My Iowa vs Michigan State Pick
Spartan Stadium will provide a tough road environment for the Hawkeyes on Saturday. The fans will be buzzing, and the atmosphere will be intense despite Michigan State’s team's lack of success this year.
Still, I think Iowa is the better squad in this matchup and would take it to cover the current number.
The Hawkeyes’ offense is much improved, and their defense still ranks among the best in the country.
Jonathan Smith has Michigan State headed in the right direction, but I expect Iowa to win in East Lansing this weekend and cover the 5.5-point spread.
Pick: Iowa -6.5 (-115, Caesars)
Iowa vs Michigan State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC |
Iowa vs Michigan State will be played at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan, on Saturday, Oct. 19, at 7:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on NBC.
Michigan State vs Iowa Betting Trends
- Iowa is 4-2 SU but 3-3 ATS
- Michigan State is 3-3 SU and 3-3 ATS
- Michigan State is 3-1 ATS as an underdog
Michigan State vs Iowa Weather
