A Big Ten Championship elimination game will commence at the Horseshoe when the Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) look to defend Ohio Stadium from the upstart Indiana Hoosiers (10-0, 7-0).
My Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction and college football picks for this Big Ten battle on Saturday, Nov. 23 are below.
Ohio State is a 13.5-point favorite on the spread with a 51.5-point over/under.
Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction, Pick
- Indiana vs. Ohio State Pick: Ohio State -13.5
My Ohio State vs. best bet is on the Buckeyes spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Indiana vs Ohio State Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 51.5 -110 / -110 | +375 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 51.5 -110 / -110 | -500 |
- Indiana vs Ohio State Spread: Indiana +13 (-110) · Ohio State -13 (-110)
- Indiana vs Ohio State Over/Under: 51.5 Points
- Indiana vs Ohio State Moneyline: Indiana +375 · Ohio State -500
Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview: Impressive Turnaround in Bloomington
How did the Hoosiers become undefeated? Is this sustainable?
The hiring of Cignetti was an easy decision based on his track record at previous stops. He compiled a 52-9 record over five seasons at James Madison and was well remembered in Indiana, going 53-17 at Division II IUP from 2011 to 2016.
Before the head coaching success, Cignetti was a wide receivers coach for Alabama and Nick Saban through 2010. The next item of business was generating NIL funds and combing the transfer portal to upgrade the roster, both of which were considered a success in Bloomington.
Ohio State will be the measuring stick to determine if Indiana's progress is sustainable.
Quarterback Kurtis Rourke will be at full strength after surgery on a fingernail that kept the Ohio transfer off the field in Week 9 against Washington.
The former Bobcats quarterback has been excellent in an offense that calls rush on 57% of snaps with a heavy tendency to inside zone. Both Ty Son Lawton and Justice Ellison have nine rushing touchdowns a piece, with Ellison providing the elusiveness at 3.8 yards after first contact.
31 yards and another touchdown for Justice Ellison 💥@IndianaFootball is pouring it on in the first half.#B1GFootball on @CFBONFOX 📺 pic.twitter.com/iF3mX4ba0F
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) October 19, 2024
The 3-3-5 base defense has numerous analytics that rank it among the top 10 nationally in success rate, havoc and quality drives.
Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines plays exclusive Cover 3 for the Indiana secondary, choosing zone over man coverage on 85% of defensive snaps. The nickel defense has excelled in limiting opponent passing attacks, graded as the 15th-best coverage unit nationally per PFF. Safety Amare Ferrell leads the group with four interceptions and a solid 14 stops on opposing rushers.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview: Rushing Attack Leads the Way
There will be no lookahead to Michigan or the Big Ten Championship game, as the focus is on the 10-0 Hoosiers.
Ohio State failed to cover an inflated spread in Week 12 against Northwestern but not for a lack of offensive efficiency.
The Buckeyes are top-10 in offensive momentum killer, a statistic that looks at penalties, missed field goals and other self-imposed interruptions to possessions.
Ohio State was dominant on the ground against Penn State, averaging 5.2 yards per rush while collecting at least two first downs on six of its 10 possessions.
The driving force of the offense has been Ole Miss transfer running back Quinshon Judkins, the centerpiece of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly's heavy ground attack.
Quinshon Judkins 💪 pic.twitter.com/BrhzcnVGKy
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) November 19, 2024
While inside zone has been the bread and butter of the ground attack, quarterback Will Howard has gone two consecutive games without committing a turnover-worthy play.
Against stiffer competition, Howard has seen an increase in rushing attempts, with nine against Oregon and 11 against Penn State.
Credit is also deserved for coordinator Jim Knowles' nickel defense, which kept the Nittany Lions offense under Andy Kotelnicki from scoring a touchdown.
The rush defense has had struggles in several games, ranking 64th in Line Yards and 76th in Stuff Rate. The Buckeyes have been mid-FBS in defending teams using inside zone, producing a 53% Success Rate, unlike the highly efficient 60% attached to the defense against outside zone.
Knowles also fields a top-10 coverage unit, using man on 40% of coverage snaps versus a mix of Cover 1 and Cover 3 while in zone.
Indiana vs Ohio State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Ohio State match up statistically:
Indiana Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 13 |  |
| Line Yards | 64 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 13 | 1 | |
Ohio State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 5 | |
| Line Yards | 7 | 2 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 16 | |
| Havoc | 16 | 6 | |
| Finishing Drives | 9 | 40 | |
| Quality Drives | 20 | 7 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 33 | 32 |
| PFF Coverage | 15 | 7 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 7 | 22 |
| Middle 8 | 7 | 18 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.1 (94) | 28.6 (105) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (33) | 55% (53) |
Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction & Pick
The box score for the Hoosiers against Michigan before the bye week was eye-opening, as Indiana faced a true top-20 defense for the first time this season.
Indiana was held to three yards on 24 rushing attempts, as the Wolverines stuffed 46% of attempts.
Those issues carried over into passing downs once the Hoosiers got behind the chains, generating a low 29% success rate over 21 attempts. Indiana failed to create a methodical drive against Michigan, which is defined as any possession with at least 10 plays or more.
The lone explosive drive was the difference against a Michigan defense that produced eight tackles for loss and four sacks and held Indiana to an average third-down distance of 8.8 yards.
If there is a negative takeaway from the Week 11 victory, Michigan is subpar in defending the inside zone with a 47% success rate.
Ryan Day mentioned his greatest concern with Indiana is the ability to create missed tackles.
Both Indiana and Ohio State rank just inside PFF's top 35 in tackle grading, but a deep dive into the Buckeyes' defensive numbers backs up the concerns of its head coach. Ohio State ranks 89th in broken tackles allowed in comparison to the Indiana offense, generating broken or missed tackles at the 33rd-best rate in the nation.
Cignetti may have similar concerns with regard to the Ohio State passing attack, as the Indiana defense is 54th in creating contested catches. That number will clash with Howard's passing attack, which is third in on-target rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Ohio State -13.5 with a total north of the key number of 55.
Considering Indiana's inability to find success with inside zone against Michigan, Ohio State should post dozens of plays in standard downs while limiting third-down distance.
The explosive element on offense is key for the Buckeyes on the ground against a Hoosier defense that's 71st in opponent rush EPA.
The Buckeyes are the side considering Indiana's tepid rank of 40th in Defensive Finishing Drives with a schedule strength outside the top 100.
Pick: Ohio State -13.5 or Better · Over 52
Indiana vs Ohio State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Ohio Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Indiana vs. Ohio State will be played at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FOX.
Indiana vs Ohio State Betting Trends
Indiana vs Ohio State Weather
