The Indiana Hoosiers (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) take on the Northwestern Wildcats (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten) at Martin Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 5 at 3:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Indiana enters this Week 6 contest as a -13.5 favorite on the spread, while the total sits at 41.5
So, where's the betting value here? Let's dive into my Indiana vs Northwestern predictions and college football picks for Saturday's Week 6 NCAAF matchup below.
Indiana vs Northwestern Odds, Pick
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 40 -110 / -110 | -600 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 40 -110 / -110 | +430 |
- Indiana vs Northwestern spread: Indiana -13
- Indiana vs Northwestern over/under: 40 points
- Indiana vs Northwestern moneyline: Indiana ML -600
- Indiana vs Northwestern pick: Over 40
Indiana Football
Curt Cignetti's Indiana Hoosiers enter this Week 6 contest as one of the hottest stories in all of college football.
In his first year on the sideline, Cignetti has injected this program with massive amounts of life.
He opened his introductory press conference with a "Google me," warned Ohio State and Michigan that he's coming, and now has a 5-0 football team.
But more important to Indiana's success than Cignetti's magic pixie dust is his offense. The Hoosiers have been an unstoppable force in recent weeks.
With former MAC Player of the Year Kurtis Rourke leading the way under center, Indiana has simply been torching its opponents.
The Hoosiers rank within the top 15 in the country in Rush Success, Pass Success and Quality Drives. You could rip this offense out of the Big Ten, put it in the SEC, and it may not skip a beat.
The passing game has been the most unstoppable element, as the Hoosiers rank first in the entire sport in Pass Success.
And as good as they are at creating Quality Drives, they're even better at finishing them. Indiana ranks sixth in all of college football at Finishing Drives, and they rarely leave points on the board.
Northwestern likely won't have any answers for this offense.
Northwestern Football
Northwestern has been better against the run than the pass, ranking 31st in Rush Success Allowed vs. 80th in Pass Success Allowed. Ultimately, it should be a big day for Rourke.
Unlike the explosive Indiana offense, Northwestern tends to like ugly games. Three of its four games this season have resulted in a total of 38 points or less.
The Wildcats have alternated wins and losses up to this point, but even in their wins, they haven't lit the world on fire. Through their first four outings, Northwestern has scored 21 or more points in a game just once.
Last week against Washington was the low point thus far, as Northwestern managed just five points in a 19-point loss. However, it had plenty of chances to surpass that output.
Quarterback Jack Lausch threw two interceptions, and the Wildcats also got stuffed at the goal line for a turnover on downs.
Northwestern will need to finish on the few chances it gets, as its offense has been miserable at best statistically. The only category the Wildcats rank within the top 100 nationally on the season is Rush Success, and the Hoosiers are 23rd against the run.
It will be an uphill battle for Northwestern in this one.
Northwestern vs Indiana Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northwestern and Indiana match up statistically:
Indiana Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 31 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 84 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 80 | |
| Havoc | 19 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 8 |  |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 26 | |
Northwestern Offense vs. Indiana Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 93 | 23 | |
| Line Yards | 110 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 114 | 20 | |
| Havoc | 104 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 126 | 68 | |
| Quality Drives | 75 | 12 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 10 | 102 |
| PFF Coverage | 18 | 67 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 3 | 80 |
| Middle 8 | 29 | 49 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (85) | 28.8 (98) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (32) | 51% (78) |
Indiana vs Northwestern Prediction
While all signs point to an Indiana blowout here, it must be mentioned that complacency is the biggest obstacle. With how well the Hoosiers have played, this could be a letdown spot, especially as Indiana enters a bye week as soon as this game ends.
But even if Indiana is not on its A-game, it will likely still move the ball at will against a Northwestern defense with too many holes.
While Indiana -13.5 isn't a bad play by any means, I actually like the total to go over even more. Indiana's offense has gone over 41.5 points in four straight games on its own.
Cignetti is always looking to make a statement, and if Northwestern can just find the end zone once, this should be one of the easiest overs of the weekend.
Pick: Over 40
How to Watch Indiana vs Northwestern: Streaming, Channel, Time
| Location: | Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium, Evanston, IL |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
College Football Betting Trends for Indiana vs Northwestern
- Indiana has landed 71% of the bets and 91% of the money.
- The under has taken 41% of tickets but generated 50% of the cash.
Northwestern vs Indiana Weather
