The SMU Mustangs (3-1) and the Florida State Seminoles (1-3) meet in Dallas on Saturday night for an ACC matchup in Week 5. This game can be seen on ACC Network at 8 p.m. ET.
The Mustangs will make their debut in their new conference this weekend. Meanwhile, the Seminoles have struggled in the early stages of the campaign, but they did pick up their first win last week.
SMU is -6.5 on the spread while the over/under is set at 47.5. Also, the Mustangs are -225 to win straight up.
You could argue neither team has looked great so far, which makes this the perfect spot for both squads to kickstart their seasons. So, here's my Florida State vs. SMU prediction and pick.
Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs Prediction
- SMU vs Florida State Pick: Florida State Team Total Under 20.5
My FSU-SMU best bet is on the Seminoles team total under, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida State vs SMU Odds, Line, Spread
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
- Florida State vs SMU Point Spread: Florida State +5.5 · SMU -5.5
- Florida State vs SMU Total: Over/Under 46.5 Points
- Florida State vs SMU Moneyline: Florida State ML +190 · SMU ML -225
Florida State Football vs SMU Football Betting Preview
Florida State Seminoles Preview
For as bad as this start has been, coach Mike Norvell likely gets a pass for a couple of reasons.
The first is the fact that the Seminoles have had a difficult schedule, playing four programs that all made a bowl game last year.
The next task for Norvell has been replacing the ACC Player of the Year at quarterback, an NFL running back and the team’s top three receivers. The defense also lost five starters from a strong unit in 2023.
The one part of last season’s talented team Norvell did return was the offensive line, which had a combined 230 career starts. Then, multiple injuries happened, which has caused starters to miss action to start this year.
If there's some positivity, it's that Florida State’s defense has played well enough to keep the team in games. It's a unit that ranks inside the top 10 in the FBS in sacks.
Norvell needs to get improvements out of his offense and quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. FSU might be able to go on a winning run to make a bowl game if this happens.
SMU Mustangs Preview
After winning the AAC title last season, there was a lot of momentum for coach Rhett Lashlee and the Mustangs. This was bolstered by the fact that SMU had an experienced roster returning.
However, it hasn’t been a smooth transition into the 2024 season. The struggles have been very noticeable on the offensive side of the ball, which led to a change at quarterback.
Kevin Jennings got the start under center in the rivalry game against TCU, leading SMU to a win with two passing touchdowns.
If you look back at that victory, it was the defense that stole the show. The Mustangs forced five turnovers, the most since a 2016 game against East Carolina, and they have 11 total on the year.
SMU also scored three non-offensive touchdowns on an interception, fumble and punt return.
Similar to Norvell, Lashlee is looking for consistent play at the quarterback position. This is a squad that could challenge in the ACC with improvements under center.
SMU vs Florida State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and Florida State match up statistically:
Florida State Offense vs. SMU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 117 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 125 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 125 | 26 | |
| Finishing Drives | 109 | 79 | |
| Quality Drives | 115 | 40 | |
SMU Offense vs. Florida State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 44 | 96 | |
| Line Yards | 48 | 55 | |
| Pass Success | 90 | 120 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 51 | 39 | |
| Quality Drives | 50 | 87 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 82 | 108 |
| PFF Coverage | 103 | 36 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 5 | 59 |
| Middle 8 | 109 | 44 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.6 (52) | 24.9 (24) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (117) | 60% (37) |
How to Bet My Florida State vs SMU Pick
In this contest, I only want to be on the side of the home team. It just comes down to the best route to do so, and I believe I have found that.
My best bet is for Florida State to fall under its team total of 20.5 at -113. I would play this as low as -130.
I don’t know how the Seminoles are going to be able to improve on offense to consistently move the ball here on the road. This is a unit that ranks outside the top 100 in multiple categories, including rush success, pass success, finishing drives and quality drives.
Meanwhile, the struggles for SMU haven't come on the defensive side of the ball. Outside of the forced turnovers I mentioned above, the Mustangs’ defense is still in the top 40 in rush success, line yards and quality drives.
The one area where you can attack this defense is through the air, but I just haven't seen anything that gives me the confidence that Uiagalelei can take advantage.
Once you add it all up, the Seminoles have only topped this total once, which came in the opener in Dublin, Ireland, against Georgia Tech.
This will be FSU’s first true road game, and I like for the offense to continue to struggle.
Pick: Florida State Team Total Under 20.5
How to Watch Florida State vs SMU
| Location: | Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
FSU-SMU Betting Trends
- 85% of the money and bets are on SMU to cover the spread against Florida State.
- 96% of the bets and 99% of the money is on the over in Florida State vs. SMU.
SMU vs Florida State Weather
