Week 12 of the college football season is upon us, and as the postseason approaches, the games mean more and more each week. Teams have a lot to play for, and we have a lot of bets still to win.
This week, I have identified four moneyline underdogs that are worth considering to pull the upset, and depending on your risk tolerance, playing in a round robin or a parlay.
While I've had some success with long-shot parlays in the past, a round robin can also be an effective way of betting underdogs.
Over the last six weeks, we've hit 14-of-28 plus-money ML underdog bets in this column, averaging a profitable payout on the 2s each week.
Remember, this is an extreme long shot for a reason — please bet responsibly.
College Football Round Robin & Parlay Odds
- By 2's: +468
- By 3's: +1606
- 4-Leg Parlay: +6044
Pick #1: Navy ML +200 vs. Tulane
For much of the early season, it appeared Navy had a chance to run the table.
It dominated opponents on the ground methodically, and it worked. Then it met Notre Dame, which capitalized on some Navy mistakes early, forcing the Midshipmen to play from behind and giving them their first loss.
After a hangover loss at Rice immediately following the Notre Dame debacle, Navy has righted the ship. The Mids outgained USF in a 28-7 win, forcing three turnovers in the process and playing great complementary football on both sides.
Tulane is an even tougher test, but Navy is up for the challenge at home, for a couple of reasons.
For starters, Tulane's offense wants to win through the air, and that is easier said than done against a Navy defense that ranks 10th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed.
The strength of the Tulane defense is its pass defense, ranking fourth in Pass Success Rate allowed itself, but that's rendered less important against a Navy attack that leans heavily into its ground game.
Navy has all the ingredients to frustrate Tulane, and at +200, this is great value to start off our round robin.
Pick #2: Florida ML +154 vs. LSU
Two teams that suffered embarrassing losses last week will look to bounce back here, but Florida has a ton to play for at The Swamp this week.
With a 4-5 record, and games against Ole Miss and Florida State remaining, Florida must win two of its final three to make a bowl game.
While the blowout loss at Texas was brutal, it also wasn't all that surprising given that Florida went without starting QB DJ Lagway for precautionary reasons. Lagway was day-to-day and ruled out at the last second last weekend. The hope is that Lagway returns for this game.
On the other side, LSU opened the season 6-1 but is spiraling of late, losing both of its last two games by two touchdowns or more. The play of QB Garrett Nussmeier has been erratic, as he has thrown nine interceptions in his last five games.
Florida ranks 57th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, which is the primary strength of its defense. It's much worse against the run, but LSU can't run the ball effectively, ranking 10th in Rush Success Rate on the season.
With or without Lagway's return, if the Gators force a Nussmeier turnover or two, the desperate home team can win here.
Pick #3: Cincinnati ML +260 at Iowa State
Just two weeks ago, Iowa State was undefeated with a path to the College Football Playoff in front of it. Then the Cyclones dropped a heartbreaker to Texas Tech at home — but that wasn't as disappointing as what followed.
Iowa State got steamrolled last week at Kansas, trailing 31-13 before clawing back in garbage time to lose by just nine points.
The Cyclone defense was completely gashed, giving up 532 total yards to a 3-6 Kansas team, including 295 yards through the air, which was easily the highest total for Kansas QB Jalon Daniels on the year.
That's a good sign for a Cincy offense that can follow the same formula to an upset win.
QB Brendan Sorsby has been fantastic on the season, and the Bearcats rank ninth in the country in Pass Success Rate.
If the same uninspired Iowa State defense shows up for the third week in a row, a Cincinnati team looking for its sixth win on the season will capitalize and secure the victory.
Pick #4: Kansas ML +124 at BYU
Speaking of those Jayhawks… Kansas football has really turned things around after a rocky start.
It took the Jayhawks offense some time to get settled after losing its offensive coordinator to Penn State in the offseason, but it's starting to look like last year's Kansas team at just the right time.
After losing five straight games, Kansas has now won two of three, and the one loss came by just two points at a talented Kansas State team's own stadium.
BYU's defense thrives at shutting down opposing passers, which is fine with Kansas, as it can typically run all over teams. Kansas ranks sixth in the nation in Rush Success Rate and has a huge matchup advantage over BYU, which ranks just 83rd in Rush Success Rate allowed.
Running back Devin Neal has averaged 6.4 yards per carry in Kansas' two most recent wins, adding two touchdowns on the ground in both games.
Motivationally, Kansas needs to win out to become bowl-eligible, while BYU (who has been flirting with disaster) can lose a game and still play for a bid in the College Football Playoff with a spot in the Big 12 Championship.
Back the slight underdog Jayhawks to continue their hot streak.
