Week 10 of the college football season has arrived, and there are some incredibly high-profile games this week with major College Football Playoff implications. Pressure is mounting, and it is time to see what teams are made of.
This week, I have identified four moneyline underdogs that are worth considering to pull the upset, and depending on your risk tolerance, playing in a round robin or a parlay.
While I've had some success with long-shot parlays in the past, a round robin can also be an effective way of betting underdogs.
Over the last five weeks, we've hit 11 of 20 plus-money ML underdog bets in this column, so let's do it again.
Remember, this is an extreme long shot for a reason — please bet responsibly.
College Football Round Robin & Parlay Odds
- By 2's: +412
- By 3's: +1061
- 4-Leg Parlay: +2529
Leg #1: Penn State ML vs. Ohio State (+140)
Ohio State enters this high-stakes meeting as -3.5 point favorites on the road in Happy Valley. But this isn't the same version of Ohio State that was promised at the beginning of the season.
The Buckeyes' offensive line has been gashed by injury. Left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending injury against Oregon and the replacements have not gotten the job done in limited appearances.
On defense, Ohio State has largely been shredded by power run concepts this season. Ohio State ranks just 53rd nationally in Line Yards allowed, and that is a disastrous matchup against the dominant Penn State rushing attack that ranks 12th in Rush Success Rate.
Action Network's Power Ratings have Penn State as a tiny favorite in this game when you factor in home field, but the Nittany Lions' dominance in the trenches will be the biggest reason why Penn State emerges victorious against the banged-up lines of the Buckeyes. Take the +142 ML value.
Leg #2: Illinois ML vs. Minnesota (+130)
This line seemed surprising at first glance, as the Top 25 Fighting Illini are home underdogs to the Golden Gophers, but Minnesota has been playing better football lately.
The Gophers have benefitted from a light schedule thus far, racking up wins over a USC team that was once ranked 11th in the country before showing their true colors and eeking out a four-point win over a horrible UCLA team before blowing out Maryland.
Minnesota's identity has turned away from the run game recently and has leaned more heavily on the arm of quarterback Max Brosmer. Brosmer has been mistake-free for the last three weeks, but he threw three interceptions in losses to Iowa and Michigan, the two good defenses he has faced in conference play.
This game will come down to turnovers and Illinois is comfortable with that. The Illini are 5-0 this season when they win the turnover margin and +6 overall in the category on the season, even after turning it over twice against Oregon.
Minnesota is overdue for some mistakes, and this is a letdown spot for a hot-riding Gophers group that has to face a pissed-off, opportunistic Illinois defense. Back the Illini to win outright.
Leg #3: Syracuse ML vs. Virginia Tech (+160)
Two five-win football teams meet at the JMA Wireless Dome, and Virginia Tech is rolling at the moment. The Hokies have won three consecutive games, with wins over Stanford, Boston College and Georgia Tech back to back to back.
Syracuse had also won three straight before last week (including road wins over UNLV and NC State) before getting blown out in one of the strangest games of the season to Pitt.
Syracuse out-gained Pitt 327 to 217 yards, but five turnovers (including multiple pick-sixes) spelled their doom. That game should have been much more competitive, but Kyle McCord didn't give them a chance.
Despite a rocky performance, to say the least, last week, the Syracuse passing offense still ranks 16th nationally in Pass Success Rate, that's a tough matchup for a Virginia Tech defense that ranks outside the top 35 in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Virginia Tech's offense still has yet to turn a corner despite the win streak. The Hokies rank outside the top 80 in both Rush and Pass Success this season. At home, the Syracuse passing attack should get back on track.
Leg #4: Wisconsin ML at Iowa (+120)
Continuing our theme of "bounce-back spots" here, Wisconsin had been dominant for much of the last month before finally dropping a game at home to Penn State last week.
Before the loss to the Nittany Lions, Wisconsin had out-scored their last three opponents by a score of 117-16.
Enter Iowa, who has done a great job of beating up on weaker football teams but has lost to nearly every quality opponent they have faced, including a home loss to Iowa State earlier this season and their most recent loss, a 32-20 L at Michigan State.
The big advantage here is Wisconsin's run game, which ranks 33rd in the country in Rush Success. Iowa's defense has been weak against the run this year and has fallen to 90th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
Given that both pass defenses are solid here and neither team has an arm they trust, this game will come down to who has more success on the ground, and the Badgers have a clear advantage. Take Wisconsin to win outright as the final leg of our Round Robin for Week 10.
