Windy conditions in Chicago, a team hoping to score style points with the CFP committee, and the Home of Blues playing host to an offensive symphony are all on tap this weekend.
Action Network's Mike Calabrese came through with picks for Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith, SMU's Kevin Jennings and Memphis' Mario Anderson.
Here are my three favorite college football player props for Week 12.
College Football Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from Saturday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 12:00 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 8:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Ohio State vs. Northwestern Player Prop
Jeremiah Smith Under 75.5 Receiving Yards
Smith will be named a Freshman All-American in weeks, and he deserves it. He’s the best freshman receiver to don the Scarlet and Gray since Cris Carter.
But this number is too high for three reasons.
The first is target share.
Smith has been targeted seven times or less in seven of the Buckeyes’ nine games this season. There are mouths to feed in this offense. Emeka Egbuka, Brandon Inniss and Carnall Tate are all quality pass catchers, as is tight end Gee Scott Jr.
Smith is still the clear WR1, but he’s not being force-fed like Tez Johnson is in the Big Ten.
The second element to consider is the weather.
This game is being played at Wrigley Field, and current weather projections call for sustained winds in the 10-to-12 MPH range with gusts up to 21 MPH. Winds above 10 MPH are troublesome for a passing attack, and once they exceed 15 MPH, they’re downright treacherous.
The final element is game flow.
Northwestern is going to get shellacked in this game. The spread is sitting at Ohio State -29. When the Buckeyes grab an early lead, they will run the football, but Northwestern is ill-equipped to stop it. The Wildcats rank 77th nationally in PFF's Rush Defense grades. Iowa ran for north 200 yards on the Wildcats, and Wisconsin nearly did the same, falling a yard short (199 yards). Ohio State has an elite running game in the garage, ready to roll.
When you add it all up, my projections call for Smith to finish with a line of 6/58/TD, comfortably under the market's figure.
Pick: Jeremiah Smith Under 75.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Boston College vs. SMU Player Prop
Kevin Jennings Over 227.5 Passing Yards
Jennings has easily cleared this number in five straight games.
Boston College is giving up 275.6 yards per game through the air in conference play, which ranks 15th out of 17 teams in the ACC.
SMU has to consider the CFP committee’s perception of them. The Mustangs should try and run it up.
Still not convinced? The Boston College coaching staff had a come-to-Jesus moment after getting embarrassed by Bhayshul Tuten a few weeks back (266 yards, 3 TDs).
The Eagles decided they wouldn’t get bullied on the ground anymore and committed to stopping opposing rushing attacks. They have opted to bring six and seven defenders into the box to get the job done.
The results have been pretty great in recent weeks. They held Syracuse’s LeQuint Allen to just 50 yards on 16 carries. Louisville’s breakout freshman superstar Isaac Brown finished with just 4.6 yards per carry, making Boston College the only team in more than a month to slow him down.
What was the cost of this rushing game makeover? The Eagles are getting killed in the play-action and RPO games. Boston College ranks in the bottom 30 in defending both.
I mentioned their success against Syracuse’s Allen, but how did they fare against the Orange passing attack?
Kyle McCord threw for 392 yards. And Louisville’s Tyler Shough found similar success, popping big plays off of fakes and RPOs. He finished with 332 yards while completing 28 of 32 attempts.
This number is about 33 yards too light. I would play him over up to 245.5.
Pick: Kevin Jennings Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-114)
UAB vs. Memphis Player Prop
Mario Anderson 3+ Touchdowns (+225)
Super Mario has been on an absolute heater as of late.
He has nine touchdowns in his last four games, averaging 160 yards from scrimmage on 27 touches. He’s the focal point of this offense and here comes the rickety UAB run defense.
When it comes to the Blazers’ defensive resume, it’s a grab bag of bad. Let’s start with their Success Rate against the run (123rd) and also point out that their Stuff Rate and Line Yards are somehow even worse (131st, 134th).
And this defense only gets worse when facing run-centric teams. Army popped off for 414 rushing yards, Tulane for 317 yards and Arkansas for 266 at seven yards a clip.
What I love about this play is that Anderson will also get targets out of the backfield. He has 40 receptions this season. Against FBS opponents, he’s averaged over five targets per game. The Blazers linebacking corps struggles to stick with backs, and Anderson has a chance to corral his third receiving score this season.
This game was also one of my favorite overs of the week. If you remove Memphis’ 21-3 win over USF in Bryce Archie’s first start, the Tigers conference games have averaged 77 points otherwise.
Now that UAB allows quarterback Jalen Kitna to push the ball downfield, they’ve become competitive and willing to get into track meets with anyone.
I think that trend continues, and we get four quarters of Anderson killing the UAB defense.
