The midweek MACtion was fun, but now, it's time to turn our attention to the Saturday slate for college football Week 11.
I broke down three top-25 matchups for Week 11 and made a pick for each.
We'll start in Lubbock, where the No. 7 BYU Cougars will look to stay undefeated in their toughest game yet against the No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Then, we'll head to Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, as the No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes hope to keep their slim College Football Playoff hopes alive when they welcome the No. 9 Oregon Ducks to town.
At the same time, the No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies will attempt to keep their top-3 ranking intact when they travel north to take on the No. 22 Missouri Tigers in Columbia.
This is sure to be a fun weekend of college football, so let's dive into my Week 11 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, Nov 8.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Week 11's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
BYU vs Texas Tech Pick
The BYU Cougars take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock, Texas, on Saturday, Nov. 8. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas Tech is favored by 10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -380. BYU, meanwhile, comes into the game as a +10 underdog and is +300 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points.
Here’s my BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 8.
BYU Cougars
After receiving a high mark in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, BYU will look to remain undefeated on the season with a trip to Lubbock.
The Cougars are led by quarterback Bear Bachmeier and his 2o all-purpose touchdowns.
BYU boasts a heavy rush offense with a 60% rate, utilizing zone read concepts and a touch of power to create an FBS rank of sixth in quality drives.
With star running back LJ Martin listed as doubtful for Week 11, Bachmeier is set to be the centerpiece of the offense.
Defensive coordinator Jay Hill continues to field a vicious unit against the pass, ranking top-25 in both Success Rate allowed and contested catches.
The nickel defense rarely sends extra rushers when blitzing, which has kept the Cougars' numbers down from a pressure standpoint. However, the payoff has been a top-20 rank in opponent pass explosives.
Getting behind the sticks against BYU has generally meant failure for the opposing offense, as the Cougars sit top-15 in opponent third downs and passing downs EPA.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The defense has been the story for Texas Tech, dating back to the additions through the portal, thanks to hefty NIL backing.
The Red Raiders not only rank as the best coverage unit in the nation, but they're also top-three in Havoc and pass rush. Edge defenders David Bailey and Romello Height are the chaos generators with a combined 95 pressures on the season.
Quarterback Behren Morton must remain healthy for the remainder of the season after multiple seasons with injuries.
The fifth-year senior has 15 passing touchdowns to just four interceptions, a bump in production thanks to just 50 pressured dropbacks on the season.
While the offensive line has been fantastic when it comes to protecting the quarterback, the rushing attack has been hampered by inefficient play.
The heavy inside zone ground attack has a poor mark of 124th in Line Yards, a measurement of how many rushing yards can be attributed to the offensive line.
BYU vs Texas Tech Prediction
The BYU defense will be prepared to stop the Red Raiders' inside zone read concepts, led by running back Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams.
Texas Tech has been poor on the offensive line, leaving both Williams and Dickey to produce a minimum of 3.5 yards after first contact.
BYU's defense sits mid-FBS in broken and missed tackles allowed, indicating that most rushing attempts will be boom or bust. Texas Tech will want to avoid passing downs against the Cougars' Cover 1 and Cover 3 secondary.
The biggest handicap in the game is Bachmeier's legs against Texas Tech's defense. The Cougars rely solely on zone read concepts, with outside zone being the more explosive.
The Texas Tech defense has dominated those concepts, producing a 65% Success Rate against outside zone and a 71% Success Rate against inside zone.
Texas Tech has faced a number of mobile quarterbacks on the schedule, limiting Utah's Devon Dampier to 27 yards on 11 carries. If an Avery Johnson explosive was removed in Week 10, the Kansas State quarterback would have been limited to 52 yards on 12 rushing attempts.
Without Martin to help run the ground game for BYU, there will be limitations to scoring for a Cougars team that ranks 60th in Finishing Drives.
Pick: Under 52 or Better
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Oregon vs Iowa Pick
The Oregon Ducks take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, Iowa, on Saturday, Nov. 8. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -240. Iowa, meanwhile, enters as a +6 underdog and is +195 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 40.5 total points.
Here’s my Oregon vs. Iowa prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 8.
Oregon Ducks
The bye week came at a good time for Oregon after a sluggish 21-7 home victory over Wisconsin.
The Ducks struggled in scoring opportunities and generated only a single methodical drive against the Badgers.
Quarterback Dante Moore failed to record a touchdown pass or big-time throw, but running back Jordon Davison upped his rushing touchdown total to 10 on the season.
The Ducks continue to be one of the more elite offenses in the nation, but a dip in offensive momentum killer and Moore's on-target rate (78th) should be monitored.
The UCLA transfer has struggled in passing attempts against teams that run Cover 2, generating a modest 45% Success Rate and a neutral EPA.
Although the Badgers were stuffed at the national average rate, Oregon continues to struggle with stopping the run.
Defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi's unit sits outside the top 100 in Stuff Rate, a key factor in Penn State generating 4.3 yards per play on the ground earlier this season.
The Ducks have a mid-FBS rank against most run concepts, but the amount of explosives allowed has haunted the box scores. The Oregon defense ranks 69th in Rush EPA allowed, supporting a negative EPA Per Play against zone read, man and power concepts.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Iowa ground attack has been rolling over the last few Big Ten games.
The Hawkeyes flexed for 5.8 yards per play in 36 attempts against Wisconsin and followed that up with a massive 7.4 yards per play on 33 rushing attempts against Penn State.
The success has been based on outside zone read, as the Hawkeyes boast a 56% Success Rate in more than 170 attempts.
Quarterback Mark Gronowski and running back Kamari Moulton have dominated recent opponents and have combined for 23 runs that went longer than 10 yards.
Defensive coordinator Phil Parker has produced another stout Iowa stop unit, ranking top-10 in generating a pass rush and in opponent quality drives.
The one major gap in preventing Iowa from being a Big Ten-contending defense comes against the rush, ranking near mid-FBS in Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
The Hawkeyes have been excellent against outside zone, but have posted a low 41% Success Rate against man blocking concepts.
Oregon vs Iowa Prediction
The key to shutting down the Iowa offense is getting the Hawkeyes behind the sticks.
Gronowski leads an offense that ranks 31st in standard downs Success Rate and 130th in passing downs Success Rate.
The former South Dakota State quarterback has generated a rank of 121st in on-target rate, per Sports Info Solutions, measuring the ability to hit a target in stride.
Iowa will more than likely line up in 12 personnel and run outside zone, a tendency used on 115 attempts this season.
Oregon has produced a quality Success Rate against the two-tight end rush concept at 49%, generating a negative play on 15% of opponent attempts.
Iowa likely won't have much success in passing downs, as the Ducks rank sixth in coverage, per PFF. The Hawkeyes will use play-action when faced with long distances to go, but Oregon has been excellent against those designed plays with a 58% Success Rate.
There are reasons to believe Moore will keep passes behind the line of scrimmage. Iowa's second-heaviest coverage is Cover 2, which Moore struggles with.
The Ducks will look to hit short routes and take advantage of an Iowa defense that's 57th in tackling and 98th in broken tackles allowed.
Before Moore hits the passing game, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning will be dedicated to establishing the run. That will equate to Davison getting the most attempts in a timeshare after he attempted six rushes in man blocking schemes against Wisconsin in Week 9.
Action Network projects Oregon as a 5-point favorite, giving Iowa minimal value unless a flat touchdown becomes available in the market.
However, the total calls for the game to fall at 50 points, with the current market hovering around the key number of 41.
Iowa special teams scores are always on the table, but an advantage in rush explosives for Oregon against a Hawkeyes defense that fails to tackle could produce quick points.
Look for Iowa to own the trench in rushing attempts, generating methodical scoring attempts. Oregon will combat with rush explosives, while both teams are excellent at producing solid field position through special teams.
Pick: Over 41 (-120) · Jordon Davison Over 40.5 Rushing Yards
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Texas A&M vs Missouri Pick
The Texas A&M Aggies take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, Missouri, on Saturday, Nov. 8. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas A&M is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -275. Missouri, meanwhile, enters as a +7 favorite and is +220 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 total points.
Here’s my Texas A&M vs. Missouri prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 8.
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M should be fresh off a bye week after posting one of the only remaining undefeated records in FBS.
The offense has sizzled in pass explosives and scoring opportunities under coordinator Collin Klein.
The progression of quarterback Marcel Reed in his junior season has been crucial, as he has nearly doubled his big-time throw rate from 2024.
The transfer portal infusion of targets KC Concepcion and Mario Craver has also continued to pay dividends for the Aggies.
Head coach Mike Elko aims to win a national title, but two holes on the defense must be fixed in November.
Texas A&M has fallen to 93rd in tackling, per PFF, while also spiraling to 107th in broken tackles allowed. Cornerback Dezz Ricks and Safety Dalton Brooks have missed a combined 25 tackles on the season.
There's also the issue of opponent scoring attempts, as the Aggies are dead last in Finishing Drives allowed. In 33 opponent drives to cross the Texas A&M 40-yard line, teams have averaged 5.1 points per trip.
Missouri Tigers
Missouri stumbled into the bye week after losing two of its three SEC games in October.
The loss to Vanderbilt can be attributed to Finishing Drives, creating only four methodical drives and averaging only 1.5 points per scoring opportunity.
Running back Ahmad Hardy had once led the country in elusiveness but has fizzled down the stretch with just 2.6 yards after first contact in the last two games.
After scoring nine touchdowns in the first five games, Hardy has produced just two in the last three games.
Meanwhile, freshman quarterback Matt Zollers took over starting duties after a season-ending injury to starter Beau Pribula. The four-star prospect from Pennsylvania was uncomfortable with a turnover-worthy play on 14-of-24 passing.
Head coach Eli Drinkwitz said he expects Zollers to produce against Texas A&M.
The Missouri defense has been one of the best from a Havoc perspective, ranking eighth among all FBS teams.
That number is fueled by a top-five pass rush and the ability to create tackles for loss. Edge players Damon Wilson II and Zion Young have produced a combined 63 pressures.
The Tigers don't miss in tackling attempts, ranking fourth nationally in broken tackles allowed.
Texas A&M vs Missouri Prediction
The Texas A&M defense must step up its production in tackling and scoring opportunities.
If there was a game for Hardy to bust out of an October funk, the Aggies could provide that boost after a bye week. Missouri features a heavy amount of outside zone with 11 and 12 personnel, producing a high 56% Success Rate for that concept.
However, Texas A&M has fielded a quality defense against the concept, with a 57% Success Rate, potentially putting the burden of this game on the arm of Zollers.
The biggest handicap is the Missouri defense putting a stop to Texas A&M's explosive passing attack. The Tigers rank 10th in Passing Success Rate allowed.
Reed has thrived against Cover 3, the most-used coverage by Missouri defensive coordinator Corey Batoon.
The key for the Tigers comes in their ability to create small windows and shut down extra yards. Missouri ranks fourth in both creating contested catches and broken tackles allowed, indicating that the Texas A&M offense could stall out.
Action Network projects Texas A&M as a 4.5-point road favorite.
Until the Aggies can field a defense that can make stops at the second level and not rank dead last in opponent scoring, Elko will have trouble winning the SEC, much less a national title.
Expect Missouri's offensive game plan to keep Zollers in low-risk passing attempts, allowing targets to take advantage of a Texas A&M defense that's outside the top 100 in passing downs EPA allowed.
Pick: Missouri +7 or Better
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