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College Football Picks, Predictions: Our MACtion Best Bets for Tuesday, November 4

College Football Picks, Predictions: Our MACtion Best Bets for Tuesday, November 4 article feature image
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MACtion has arrived, and the folks at MACtion Network could not be more excited.

That's right — after a year-long hiatus, everyone's favorite college football conference is ready to start back up its weekly schedule of Tuesday and Wednesday games.

That also means we're betting some MACtion. That's the proper way to celebrate, right?

Our college football writers came through with a pick for both of Tuesday's two MACtion games: the Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. the Ohio Bobcats and the UMass Minutemen vs. the Akron Zips.

So, let's dive into our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for both games — and be sure to check back tomorrow for our Wednesday night MACtion coverage.


College Football Picks, Predictions

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting for Tuesday's slate of MACtion games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
Miami RedHawks LogoOhio Bobcats Logo
7 p.m.
Massachusetts Minutemen LogoAkron Zips Logo
7 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Playbook

Miami (OH) vs Ohio Pick

Miami RedHawks Logo
Tuesday, Nov. 4
7 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Ohio Bobcats Logo
Miami (OH) Team Total Over 23.5
bet365 Logo

By Joshua Nunn

This is one of the more underrated rivalries at the G5 level, as these two are set to engage in the Battle for the Bricks.

We should see a close and entertaining matchup, and while weather can often affect weekday MACtion, it won't factor into this one.

I think this game will be higher scoring, but I'm going to isolate the RedHawks team total over in this one.

Ohio has been winning games in league play this season, but it hasn't happened on the backs of its defensive unit. It has played some of the worst offensive teams in the MAC and has still allowed at least 20 points in every MAC contest this season.

The Ohio run stop unit is allowing five yards per carry on the season against FBS competition, so I expect Miami quarterback Dequan Finn to have some big plays on the ground to extend drives.

Finn has been excellent in league play, averaging nearly eight yards per pass attempt with a 5:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The ground game has been efficient behind the two-headed monster of Jordan Brunson and Kenny Tracy, and the offensive line has played really good football over the last three weeks.

This offense appears to be locked in and fully focused.

Ohio also has a weak pass rush, which grades out in the bottom third in the MAC this season, per PFF. The Bobcats' front seven has only two sacks total in the last three games, and the secondary isn't strong enough to be tasked with covering the explosive Miami receivers.

I expect Kam Perry and Keith Reynolds to have several chances to connect on deep shots.

Miami has a massive special teams edge, and the Ohio coverage units have been shaky at times this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a key special teams play set Miami up with a short field, which would further provoke scoring.

The RedHawks' field-goal operation has been extremely reliable as well.

This is such an important game and should be a fun battle on Tuesday night. With the Miami team total currently at 23.5, I think there's value in that number because the offense should have the upper hand against the Ohio defense.

Pick: Miami (OH) Team Total Over 23.5



UMass vs Akron Pick

Massachusetts Minutemen Logo
Tuesday, Nov. 4
7 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
Akron Zips Logo
Akron -9.5
bet365 Logo

By Road to CFB

If you’re here to evaluate putting real U.S. currency on Akron vs. UMass, then you are a true sicko, and I commend you. You are one of us.

Akron is a tough team to gauge due to its tendency to play up to and down to opponents.

The Zips upended Central Michigan and Buffalo (a combined 7-2 in MAC play) while also getting 40-pieced by Ball State (128th in points per drive); it played to a 10-0 slapfight with Wyoming to start the year, too.

Few teams in the country truly lack explosive potential on offense like the Zips. So, when they do score, it’s on lengthy drives that bleed lots of clock. Sometimes, those long drives come up empty, and Akron made a change at kicker, moving away from Owen Wiley (4-of-10 kicking this year).

UMass hangs around when teams let it, rather than clawing its own way into the games itself.

In MAC play, 46% of UMass’ drives resulted in three-and-outs (23-of-50), and only long drives keep these games within reason, given the down-to-down net Success Rates of each.

The metrics paint a picture as bleak as the Minutemen's 0-8 record implies. UMass ranks last in net Success Rate and net available yards gained, last in net points per drive and third-to-worst in net yards per play.

But this isn’t your run-of-the-mill bad MAC team — this is truly a historically bad MAC team.

According to Sagarin power ratings, UMass ranks 227th in Division I, behind the likes of Lindenwood, Central Connecticut State and Dayton. Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranks the Minutemen 221st among all divisions nationally, behind 12 Division II teams and right in line with Division III North Central (IL).

This is a team on a downward trend that now has to play just its second non-Saturday game since 2020 and first true weeknight game since 2014.

InfoCision Stadium is one of the least-filled stadiums in the country (it averaged just 21% fill last year), and Akron averaged the fewest fans per game last year. It’s a sleepy midweek MACtion environment.

If this is a checked-out team come Tuesday night, we’ll certainly find out. And if UMass isn’t checked out, it's still out-talented at nearly every level, even by the other worst teams in FBS.

The Minutemen’s lone 10-point finish featured astounding levels of ineptitude and gaffes from Buffalo. I don’t foresee that kind of result again.

Pick: Akron -9.5 (Play to -12.5)

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