Welcome to Week 9.
As we zero in on the final stretch of the season, let’s enjoy every last second of the action.
Our staff of college football experts has spent the week breaking down the slate. We’ve compiled some of their favorite wagers for the noon window below.
Read on for our college football picks and NCAAF best bets for Week 9's noon slate on Saturday, Oct. 25.
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College Football Best Bets, Picks for Saturday's Noon Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
 | Noon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
SMU vs Wake Forest Best Bet, Pick
By Stuckey
Until last week (a road upset over a banged-up Clemson team playing with its backup quarterback), SMU had been extremely disappointing, failing to exceed oddsmakers' expectations in all but one game.
That one cover came against lowly Stanford in a game where the Mustangs pulled away late to get outside the number.
However, they outgained Stanford by only 16 yards in a game in which the Tree had 10 penalties and a -2 turnover margin. Stanford also failed to score twice inside the SMU 5, with one of those possessions ending in a 96-yard pick-six.
Even the week prior, against a Syracuse team also playing with a backup quarterback, the Orange actually finished with a 389-370 net yardage advantage. Still, they couldn't overcome a -2 turnover margin and a 2-for-5 performance on fourth-down attempts.
My primary point here is that SMU is not the same caliber of team as last year's playoff bunch.
This week, the Mustangs find themselves in a brutal situational spot, having to travel back out east for a second straight road game (with a noon ET kick) following the emotional upset of Clemson to exact ACC Championship revenge with a match against ACC favorite Miami on deck.
Meanwhile, Wake Forest is coming off a bye, which should enable the Demon Deacons to get much healthier after dealing with a slew of injuries before their two-week break.
I also value bye weeks more highly for teams such as Wake that experienced mass roster and staff turnover in the offseason. Keep in mind that after its first bye week earlier in the season, Wake Forest lost in overtime on a failed two-point attempt against undefeated Georgia Tech. Tech, meanwhile, needed a last-second field goal to force overtime.
The Wake offense continues to blossom under Jake Dickert, who should benefit from installing even more new looks with a brand-new team.
Additionally, the Demon Deacon defense might be one of the most underrated units in the country.
Not enough people are talking about the job new defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton is doing on that side of the ball. Wake has seemingly nailed most of its transfer portal additions.
Across similar strengths of schedule, Wake Forest actually has a +1.3 net yards per play margin compared to SMU's +0.8.
The defense also ranks in the top-20 nationally in yards per play and Pass Success Rate allowed, which are key against SMU's pass-heavy offense.
The Wake defense also ranks in the top 10 in pressure rate, which could spell trouble for Kevin Jennings, who has seen his turnover-worthy play rate spike immensely when under pressure over the past two seasons.
Additionally, the SMU offense is built on getting chunk yards after the catch (top-15 in the country in YAC average), but that might prove more difficult against a Wake Forest defense that ranks sixth in that department.
I'm assuming we see quarterback Robby Ashford back under center. Still, there's a chance Deshawn Purdie gets some looks after the uber-talented transfer looked spectacular in a surprise start for a banged-up Ashford before the bye week.
If it is Ashford, we'll have to avoid a couple of boneheaded throws, but he has at least excelled at avoiding sacks (just one taken over his past 33 pressures), which is key against an SMU defense that hunts sacks as well as any defense in the country.
There will be opportunities to attack this SMU coverage group.
After accounting for the spot, I like anything over a field goal with the Deacs, who should also benefit from a fully healthy Demond Claiborne in the backfield. Let's hope he doesn't blow too many assignments in pass protection, where he really struggles.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 9 Situational Spots here:
Pick: Wake Forest +3.5 or Better
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Appalachian State vs Old Dominion Best Bet, Pick
These are the two fastest teams in the Sun Belt in terms of tempo — both rank top 25 nationally in seconds per play.
JJ Kohl, the 6-foot-7, 240-pound monster quarterback for App State, has opened things up for the Mountaineers now that he’s won the starting job. They’ve scored 78 points across their past two games.
Meanwhile, Old Dominion’s defense has been imploding. The Monarchs have allowed 111 points across their past two games. They can’t tackle, and they can’t rush the passer.
At the same time, Old Dominion is capable of scoring 30 to 40 points with Colton Joseph at quarterback. He ranks 22nd nationally among qualified quarterbacks in QBR, and he has five games with 50-plus rushing yards on the season.
When he has time to read a defense, he knows where to go with the football. He’s been producing tons of explosive plays in a clean pocket (13.6 aDOT, 15 TDs, 14 BTTs).
App State’s defense has been below mediocre, ranking 111th nationally in PFF’s Coverage and Tackling grades. The Mountaineers have allowed 23 passing plays of 20-plus yards this season, which ranks 93rd nationally.
I trust both quarterbacks to put up monster numbers in this game, especially considering the weather looks perfect in Norfolk on Saturday.
Listen to the entire Big Bets on Campus Group of 5 Deep Dive for Week 9 here:
Pick: Over 62 (-110, bet365)
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Kansas State vs Kansas Player Prop
By Doug Ziefel
Last week, we saw Joe Jackson get a big workload bump, getting the ball a season-high 27 times against TCU.
That volume led to a season-high 110 rushing yards.
That performance raised his expectations drastically this week, as he has a good matchup in front of him — the Kansas Jayhawks rank 119th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game.
However, his efficiency raises doubts about his ability to repeat his performance, as he averaged just 4.3 yards per carry. It's also unlikely he'll see that level of volume again, as the Wildcats are underdogs and much of his additional volume came in the second half while Kansas State was playing with a lead.
Fade the hype on Jackson this Saturday.
Pick: Joe Jackson Under 97.5 Rush Yards (-115, bet365)
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USF vs Memphis Best Bet, Pick
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
The Right Favorite is a college football system built on recognizing when the betting market underestimates a favorite.
In the regular season, when an opponent is coming off a loss by seven to 23 points, perception often inflates their chances of rebounding. Yet, those weaknesses typically carry into the next game.
By focusing on contests where the total is set over 55, the system narrows in on higher-scoring games, making it more difficult for struggling teams to keep pace.
Limiting the sample to the first 11 games of the season ensures the analysis applies before postseason adjustments in motivation and preparation occur.
Finally, the spread filter targets situations where the line is set with the other side catching points, but not in extreme ranges, allowing favorites to deliver consistent covers.
Together, these conditions create a profile where the favorite is positioned as the stronger play despite public bias suggesting otherwise.
Teams that have fit this system are 13-7 ATS this year (65% win rate, 24% ROI). Five of the last six teams to fit this system have covered.
I could see the Tigers' struggles continuing after last week's horrific loss against UAB. Memphis' secondary is weak, allowing Ryder Burton to carve it up (20-for-27 passing, 240 yards, 3 TDs). I could see Byrum Brown having a similar week.
Meanwhile, Memphis has no idea who is starting at quarterback this week. Brendon Lewis left last week's game in the third quarter with a lower-body injury. Even if he plays, he might not be 100%, which would be a tremendous blow given that the entire offense is predicated on his dual-threat rushing ability.
Pick: USF -6 (-110, bet365)
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Collin Wilson's Full Action App Card
Need more bets for Saturday's action? It's always wise to see what our guy Collin Wilson is betting on every week!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the free award-winning Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all of your favorite experts:
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