College Football Best Bets & Friday Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Friday. Night. Lights.
There's something special about college football under the lights to kick off the weekend, and this Week 6 slate is no different.
We have four FBS games on the docket tonight, and our college football experts came through with three best bets for the power-conference matchups.
It all starts with Houston vs. TCU in a Texas-sized Big 12 battle. Then, to close it all out, we'll head to Eugene for Michigan State vs. Oregon in the Big Ten and then Las Vegas for Syracuse vs. UNLV in an ACC/Mountain West clash.
Check out all three of our college football best bets, picks and predictions for Friday, October 4.
Houston vs TCU Best Bet for Friday
TCU has welcomed plenty of track meets due to scheduling, but this isn’t one of them.
Houston vs. TCU totals in recent years would have been good for the high-60s. Both teams’ identities, however, have been altered, especially Houston’s.
Pace could be a problem to get past 51. TCU’s averaging fewer possessions than last year, and the Cougars are down a full 10 plays on average.
The Cougars boast a secondary just outside the top 20 nationally in yards per completion allowed. Limiting explosive plays and the inability to create any offense — Houston’s 121st in yards per completion and 82nd in yards per rush this season — is a solid recipe for a low-scoring game.
Plus, our researcher Evan Abrams dug up a neat trend: Power conference matchups played on any day except Saturday have gone under 56% of the time since tracking.
I’d recommend a full unit on under 51 and a half-sized unit on anything lower, down to 48 (+100).
Pick: Under 51 (Play to 48)
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Michigan State vs Oregon Best Bet for Friday
By Joshua Nunn
Oregon hosts Michigan State in Big Ten play on Friday night. I like the spot for Michigan State here.
Head coach Jonathan Smith has familiarity with the Ducks from his tenure at Oregon State.
Oregon has a massive game next week hosting Ohio State, and given how Michigan State was just blown out by the Buckeyes, I wouldn’t be surprised if Oregon glosses over this team.
Defensively, Michigan State has played pretty well this year, ranking inside the top 40 nationally in Defensive EPA per Play Allowed, Defensive Havoc and Defensive Finishing Drives.
Oregon hasn’t shown the offensive explosion we automatically assume we’re going to see with the Ducks. Oregon is just 114th in standard down explosiveness and 84th in running play explosiveness.
These are two areas where the Michigan State defense doesn’t allow explosiveness. Oregon is also only 47th in Offensive Finishing Drive, while Michigan State ranks eighth nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives.
I don’t think Oregon is going to have an easy time against this Michigan State defense. Oregon ran it up against rival Oregon State a couple of weeks ago, but the Beavers’ defensive front is much weaker than what Michigan State is equipped with.
With how efficient Michigan State has been when teams cross the 40-yard line, I can see Oregon moving the ball here but settling for field goals.
Michigan State has played well in the first half this season, holding halftime leads in four of its five contests. Oregon has trailed twice at half this season and led Oregon State just 22-14 at the break in that game.
With multiple data points of Oregon having sluggish second halves and not extending the margin in these games, I’ll call for that pattern to continue here.
Oregon will win the game on the field, but I would guess this will be closer to a 14-17-point win. Take Michigan State on Friday night to keep it closer than expected.
Pick: Michigan State +24 or Better
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Syracuse vs UNLV Best Bet for Friday
I realize you can always de-risk by just taking the points, but I think the value resides with juice on the Syracuse moneyline.
UNLV is undoubtedly one of the hottest teams in college football right now, and it has been a headline team after busting into the AP Top 25 on the heels of losing its starting quarterback over an NIL dispute.
The Rebels have played well this season and will enter the game with an undefeated record, but I think this is a prime opportunity for a contrarian stance.
The UNLV offense enters the game as the 10th-ranked scoring unit in the nation, averaging 45.3 points per game, but its offensive success is overstated by big wins over FCS Utah Tech and Fresno State.
There’s no doubt the Rebels have been good, but I think the best way of sizing up this game is a peer analysis against Power 4 competition.
Against Houston and Kansas, the games were much tighter, and those teams have just two wins between them as we enter Week 6.
While a lot has been made of the UNLV offense, I will argue that we haven’t seen enough of new quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams yet.
Irrespective of its offense, the defense is the weak link of the No. 25-ranked Rebels. Entering this game, UNLV ranks 90th in the most recent SP+ defense rankings.
Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord will be the best quarterback UNLV has faced so far this season and will likely be the best competition it will see all season.
McCord leads the nation in passing yards per game with an average of 364.8 and has thrown for 14 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Even on the road, McCord should be able to find his rhythm early and have a big night as he faces the 88th-ranked UNLV pass defense, which is allowing 226 yards per game.
Our Action Network PRO Line offers significant value and projects the spread for this game at +3.9, resulting in a “B+” rating.
I like backing the better quarterback and betting Syracuse to win this one outright at +185 or better.
Pick: Syracuse ML +205 (Play to +185)
