College football Week 6 continues with a juicy evening Saturday slate that features five top-15 teams going on the road.
Our experts are diving into four best bets for the night games, including one of those top-tier squads heading out to the Pacific Northwest.
So, without further ado, here are our college football predictions and NCAAF picks for tonight, including evening bets for Michigan vs. Washington and Hawaii vs. San Diego State.
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College Football Predictions: Best Bets for Week 6
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
College Football Picks Saturday
Over/Under Pick for South Alabama vs. Arkansas
These offenses, when facing below average defenses, can put on a show.
That’s good news for over-backers in this spot because the Red Wolves and Jags rank 115th and 120th in total defense, respectively.
Arkansas State plays with great tempo, snapping it every 25 seconds (36th), and South Alabama is on the verge of the top 40, with nearly 71 plays per game.
The Jags’ true tempo numbers have been skewed a bit slower due to blowouts in opposite directions across their last two games. Against North Texas, in its opener, South Alabama ran 82 plays. The end result was 90 total points between the Mean Green and Jags.
Arkansas State’s full statistical profile also needs to be taken with a grain of salt because it's faced two elite Power Four defenses in the past two weeks. Michigan and Iowa State put them in a box, but the Jaguars don't have the pass rush or secondary to hold ASU’s playmakers in check.
While facing Central Arkansas and Tulsa, sophomore passer Jaylen Raynor performed like an all-SBC quarterback. He finished with 694 total yards and five total touchdowns in those games.
That’s the level of play I’m expecting against South Alabama.
My numbers called for this total to sit in the 68-point range, but I have downgraded them by two due to the injury news on Jamaal Pritchett. The talented wide receiver was also a big weapon in the return game.
As of publication, Prichett remains in the concussion protocol, according to his head coach Major Applewhite. I’m assuming he’ll be in street clothes for this game.
The good news is that while Lopez may be down his top pass catcher, he can simply turn and hand it to one of the country’s best freshman running backs. Fluff Bothwell is averaging over eight yards per carry this season and has found paydirt six times already.
Arkansas State is just horrific when it comes to stopping the run (234 yards per game, six yards per carry). It struggles with its run fits, and as a team, it's one of the worst tackling groups in college football.
That can help turn short gains into long touchdowns in this one.
With perfect weather conditions on tap for Saturday night, I’m playing this over all the way up to 65.
Pick: Over 61.5 (Play to 65)
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Spread Pick for Washington vs. Michigan
I love this spot for the Huskies, who are coming off a road loss to Rutgers in which Washington outgained the Scarlet Knights by over 200+ yards but squandered away several scoring chances.
Meanwhile, Michigan heads west after two victories at home over USC and Minnesota. The Wolverines were very fortunate in both.
There’s also the massive revenge factor, given that these two teams met in the national title game less than 10 months ago.
I know it's a new staff and mostly new players, but the Husky faithful will be out in full force for this one.
On the field, Michigan continues to be completely one dimension offensively. It can’t throw the ball, and Washington is equipped in the trenches to stop its rushing attack.
Expect Will Rogers and the Huskies’ offense to do enough to outpace a Michigan offense that’s mediocre at best.
I believe Washington wins the football game.
Pick: Washington -1.5 (Play to -2)
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Picks for Hawaii vs. San Diego State
Hawaii laid an egg against Sam Houston a few weeks ago but was able to bounce back and get right against Northern Iowa.
The Rainbow Warriors put up 528 yards of offense and averaged 7.9 yards per play, and were able to head into a bye week with some confidence.
Quarterback Brayden Schager looked great, throwing for 374 yards and four touchdowns, and the Rainbow Warriors ran the ball efficiently.
The Hawaii offense ranks 38th in the country in success rate and has a great matchup against a poor San Diego State defense that ranks 107th in success rate on that side of the ball.
The Aztecs have dropped three straight games and just blew a lead and lost on a game-winning field goal against Central Michigan. This team is in a complete rebuild in the first year under Sean Lewis, and it isn’t even hiding that.
The Aztecs rank outside of the top 100 in success rate on both offense and defense.
San Diego State is starting a true freshman quarterback to build for the future, and he’s essentially just a game manager, averaging less than 190 passing yards per game.
The Rainbow Warriors have a top-20 passing defense this year and should have no problem with this passing attack.
The entire offense for the Aztecs has been running back Marquez Cooper. He may be a terrific back, but veteran defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman has had two weeks to develop a game plan to take away one player.
I like the Rainbow Warriors to continue building confidence on offense, and I believe they’re the better team here.
Pick: Hawaii +2.5 (Play to -1)
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By Joshua Nunn
San Diego State brought in head coach Sean Lewis, who runs the “flash fast” offense made famous during his tenure at Kent State.
The only problem is that, as we like to say here at Action Network, they’re going nowhere fast.
The pieces just aren’t there for SDSU to run the offense that it desires to deploy. This team can’t run the football. Against FBS competition, the Aztecs are averaging just 100 rushing yards per game and are averaging just 2.85 yards per carry.
SDSU has used both Danny O’Neil and Javance Tupou’ata-Johnson at quarterback, and combined, they’re 60-for-109 for 723 yards.
SDSU is 124th nationally in EPA per pass and 124th in passing play explosiveness. Without an efficient run game and next to nothing in explosive pass effectiveness, it’s going to be very hard for the Aztecs to move the football against an underrated Hawaii defense.
The competition Hawaii has faced certainly has to be considered, but its defense is only allowing 306 total yards and 17 points per game. The ‘Bows are 21st nationally in defensive Havoc achieved.
Hawaii also has the advantage in rush play success rate and pass play success rate, compared to the SDSU offensive success in those metrics.
San Diego State has been in third down a ton this year, but it’s only converting at 34%. The field goal kicking unit has struggled badly for the Aztecs, and oftentimes, they’ll forgo the field goal unit and just go for it on fourth down.
Hawaii is in year three of the run-and-shoot offense, but it’s made a concerted effort this year to run the ball much more frequently than expected.
Hawaii is also operating on offense at a much slower pace and has very little explosiveness in its passing game. It needs to string together long time-consuming drives to put scores together.
The ‘Bows have also struggled on third down this season (17-of-50) and have found themselves in field position battles this year rather than shootouts.
Hawaii is averaging 13 points per game against FBS competition this season. SDSU is averaging 10.3 points per game against FBS competition.
I trust the Hawaii defense much more when lining up against the SDSU offense here, so in a game with two teams that trend under and struggle to move the ball and sustain drives, I’m going to isolate the weaker offense team total.
Pick: San Diego State Team Total Under 24.5 (Play to 24)
