The Boise State Broncos (11-1, 7-0 MWC) host the UNLV Rebels (10-2, 6-1) in the 2024 Mountain West Championship on Friday, Dec. 6.
Boise State has suffered only 1 loss this season — a 37-34 defeat at the hands of No. 1 Oregon in Week 2. UNLV, meanwhile, has lost 2 games, including a 44-41 overtime defeat against No. 22 Syracuse and a 29-24 loss to this same Boise State team.
The Broncos enter this game as a -4 favorite with the over/under set at 57.5.
Let's take a look at our Boise State vs. UNLV picks and college football predictions for the 2024 Mountain West Championship on Friday, Dec. 6.
Boise State vs. UNLV Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 57.5 -112o / -108u | -188 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 57.5 -112o / -108u | +155 |
- Boise State vs. UNLV Spread: Boise State -4.5 · UNLV +4.5
- Boise State vs. UNLV Over/Under: 57.5
- Boise State vs. UNLV Moneyline: Boise State ML -188 · UNLV ML +155
By Pete Ruden
This game is a defining moment in the history of the Group of Five.
The Group of Five has never had a seat at the table before. Sure, Cincinnati broke the mold in 2021 when it was selected to the four-team playoff, but this is different.
Boise State and UNLV have the chance to become the first G5 automatic qualifier in College Football Playoff history.
If the Broncos survive another slugfest against the Rebels, they will almost assuredly receive a top-four seed and a first-round bye — a massive advantage for a G5 program in the playoff.
If UNLV can pull off the slight upset, the Rebels will be the ones at the table looking to carve up any opponent that gets in their way.
With a conference rivalry likely deciding a CFP spot, there's plenty on the line in this Mountain West title game.
We polled 10 members of our college football staff to get their leans on the spread and total, so let's take a look at their picks for Friday night's Broncos vs. Rebels clash.
Boise State vs. UNLV Picks, Predictions
Boise State vs. UNLV Spread
Our Spread Pick: UNLV +4
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff is excited about the opportunity for UNLV to avenge its only conference loss of the season in this Mountain West rematch of last year’s conference championship game and a rematch of a great October matchup from earlier in the season.
We side with UNLV in this matchup at +4. Our Action PRO line comes in at +4.4, and we've seen some sharp action on the Rebels as the weekly betting numbers continue to come in.
UNLV quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has had full control of this offense since taking over for Matthew Sluka earlier this season, and we've seen significant improvements in the UNLV passing game.
There has been no bigger beneficiary of the quarterback change than dynamic wide receiver Ricky White, who has over 1,000 receiving yards and 11 receiving touchdowns.
We have also seen the emergence of a solid primary option at running back in Jai’den Thomas, who's averaging 6.1 yards per carry with eight total touchdowns on the season.
UNLV had a 61% post-game win expectancy in the first meeting between these two teams, as the Rebels outplayed the Broncos for much of the way.
The Boise State defense can certainly be taken advantage of in the passing game, and UNLV has enough weapons to do just that.
The Broncos defense ranks just 132nd overall in PFF Tackling grade and has struggled this season with missed tackles. UNLV should be able to get the “Go-Go” offense going and get its backs out in space in one-on-one situations.
The Boise State offense is fairly straightforward with running back Ashton Jeanty leading the charge before running play-action off that.
This will be the third time Barry Odom and Co. have seen it, so I'd expect UNLV to be effective in loading the box and containing Jeanty as it did in the first meeting.
The UNLV secondary has also completely locked in with 17 interceptions and 26 pass breakups. That unit will have to stay disciplined and not get caught peeking in the backfield.
Boise State has seemingly been going through the motions for a good portion of the last four weeks, and I love what I've seen from UNLV's defensive front seven during the last month.
We fully expect this one to come down to the wire again.
Boise State vs. UNLV Over/Under
Over 57.5 | 3 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 57.5 | 5 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 57.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff has varying opinions on the total in this one with a slight lean given to the under, which is set at 57.5. The Action PRO line comes in at 58.5.
I can see this one trending under with two rush-heavy offenses and both defenses being familiar with the schemes that will be deployed.
Boise State is going to run Jeanty plenty, just as the Broncos have all season.
UNLV has given up just 74 rushing yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry over the last month of the season, and its experienced secondary ranks 12th in Passing Down Success Rate and 26th in EPA Per Pass.
I fully expect the Rebels defense to show up here again and provide resistance to Boise State's offensive attack.
UNLV is running the ball at a greater than 2:1 ratio, and the ground game has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over the last four weeks.
Hajj-Malik Williams has been efficient and taken care of the football with only four interceptions this season. B
oise had a game plan to take away Ricky White in the first meeting and will likely attempt to severely limit him again, so other skill guys like Jacob De Jesus and Kaleo Ballungay are going to have to step up.
The major concern for UNLV has been its execution in the red zone. It has been a problem all season for the Rebs, as the offense has hit paydirt on just 35 of its 68 attempts inside the 20-yard line all season. UNLV has kicked an amazing 21 red-zone field goals.
Boise State has been efficient in the red zone most of the season but has scored touchdowns on only five of its nine possessions over the last two weeks.
Defensively, UNLV is strong when its backs are against the wall, and we can certainly expect the Rebs to stiffen in the red zone once again.
It goes without saying, but having two strong red-zone defenses is critical when considering an under.
