The Michigan Wolverines are in trouble, and their embarrassing loss to Texas last weekend may be a telling sign of how the rest of their season will play out. The Wolverines were bullied from the opening kick and had their guts ripped out in front of their home crowd.
The Wolverines now need a statement victory at home against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves were projected to be a contender in the Sun Belt Conference, so they'll want to prove they belong in that conversation with a strong effort at The Big House.
Oddsmakers do not give the Red Wolves much chance as they are 23.5-point underdogs. The total, which has dropped since opening, is at 47.5.
Let's break down both teams and get to my Arkansas State vs. Michigan prediction.
Arkansas State vs Michigan Prediction
- My Pick: Under 47.5
My Michigan vs. Arkansas State best bet is on the under with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Arkansas State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +950 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -1700 |
- Spread: Arkansas State +21.5 (-108) · Michigan -23.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Moneyline: Arkansas State +900 · Michigan -1600
Arkansas State Football vs. Michigan Football Betting Preview
Arkansas State Red Wolves: Regression Looming
The Red Wolves have started the season 2-0, but their numbers suggest they might be fortunate in that department. They have a lightning-fast offense, but that may work against them against a good defensive team.
They rank outside the top 100 in offensive Success Rate, but their running game needs to be more consistent. They are also 74th in EPA/play on the ground, and their success rate declines even further in this department.
Quarterback Jaylen Raynor has thrown three touchdowns and two interceptions to begin the season, and will need to attack the Michigan secondary if the Red Wolves want a shot at covering the number. Arkansas State's leading rusher is Zak Wallace, who only averages 3.9 yards per carry.
Receiver Corey Rucker is crucial to the aerial attack and has 13 catches on 13 targets with two touchdowns through two games. Quinn Ewers had his way against the Wolverines' secondary last week, but we need to lower our expectations due to the talent discrepancy between both rosters.
The defensive metrics must improve as Arkansas State ranks outside the top 100 in EPA/play allowed.
As bad as the Wolverines' offense was last week, it's tough to count on the Red Wolves' offense to make any stops.
I thought I'd be all over the Red Wolves after Michigan's recent performance, but these metrics suggest significant regression looming. I can't back them here unless the line continues to balloon.
Michigan Wolverines: No Offensive Rhythm
As bad as the Red Wolves' offensive metrics are, the Wolverines' might be worse. Last weekend was a total beatdown because Michigan couldn't establish an offensive rhythm.
Last week, Michigan finished with a Total EPA of -7.41. Texas finished with a 12.84 offensive EPA, so the defense didn't do them any favors.
I am going to blame last week's beatdown on the offense, which didn't give the defense a fair shot at success. Given the offensive performance, even the Michigan defense of last season would've struggled last week.
Luckily, the Red Wolves' defense looks ugly metrically, so if there were a week for Michigan's offense to find its rhythm, this is it. Considering how fast the Red Wolves like run to their offense, I expect Michigan to play keep away and go with a conservative offensive game plan to establish momentum.
The Red Wolves' offense is also projected to be a juicy matchup for Michigan's defense, so the offense may not even need a big performance to win comfortably. The Wolverines didn't look great defensively last week but are still 36th in EPA/rush allowed and 43rd in success rate on third down.
If they force the Red Wolves into difficult situations, Michigan's pass rush will have a field day. The Wolverines are also 11th in rush defense, an area that should give them little trouble.
Considering the uncertainty of their offense, I'm not sure I can back the Wolverines here, but they should avoid being upset. There are too many questions on the offensive side of the ball to warrant laying 24 points.
How to Bet Arkansas State vs Michigan Pick
The sharp side is the Wolverines, but I'll take the under instead of targeting the spread. It is scary to know the Red Wolves love to go fast, but they're in for a rude awakening against Michigan's defense.
A fast-paced offense is only effective if it consistently moves the chains. I expect many quick possessions with nothing to show for the Red Wolves. That will lead to the Wolverines controlling the clock as they try to sort out their offensive mess.
The Wolverines are 115th in plays per game, meaning they love to go slow. The more offensive possessions for the Wolverines will correlate to the clock churning at a high frequency.
It is a good matchup for the offense to figure things out, but I could also see a lot of drives resulting in field goals instead of touchdowns. I will wait for a slightly larger number, but I still like the under at the current total.
Pick: Under 47.5 (Play to 45.5)
How to Watch Arkansas State vs. Michigan Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
Michigan-Arkansas State Weather
