The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1) make the trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium to take on the Auburn Tigers (2-1) in an SEC showdown on Saturday, Sept. 21 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Auburn recently made a quarterback change, going from longtime starter Payton Thorne to freshman Hank Brown.
Brown put up solid numbers in a 45-19 win over New Mexico last week, completing 17 of his 25 passes for 235 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions.
On the other side, Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green has continued to be an up-and-down dual-threat signal-caller in close victories over Oklahoma State and UAB.
Auburn enters as a -2.5 favorite with an over/under of 56.
So, where does the betting value lie in this SEC clash? Let's take a look at my Arkansas vs. Auburn predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 21.
Arkansas vs Auburn Prediction
- Auburn vs Arkansas Pick: Arkansas +2.5
My Arkansas-Auburn bet is on the Razorbacks to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Arkansas vs Auburn Odds
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 56 -110 / -110 | +120 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 56 -110 / -110 | -140 |
- Arkansas vs Auburn Point Spread: Arkansas +2.5 (-110) · Auburn -2.5 (-110)
- Arkansas vs Auburn Total: Over/Under 56
- Arkansas vs Auburn Moneyline: Arkansas +120 · Auburn -140
Arkansas vs Auburn Preview
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview: Big Plays Galore
Arkansas' recent game against UAB brought to light some critical elements that could significantly influence its upcoming game against Auburn.
The Razorbacks beat UAB, 37-27, but according to Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman, there were communication issues on the defensive side of the ball. On top of that, defensive coordinator Travis Williams was away from the team because his family was having a baby.
Because of these major communication hiccups, Arkansas had to play a bland base defense against UAB without its usual blitz schemes. With all of these issues now in the light, it becomes clearer how UAB put up 354 total yards with UAB quarterback Jacob Zeno completing 23 of his 32 pass attempts.
Williams — an Auburn alum and former Tigers coach under Gus Malzahn — loves to call blitz and prefers an aggressive Cover 0 scheme. With the defensive coordinator back in the fold, the expectation is that Arkansas will return to normalcy on the defensive side of the ball.
It's also worth noting that UAB offensive coordinator Alex Mortensen and head coach Trent Dilfer actually formed a solid duo against the Hogs last week. Mortensen found a play that Boston College used against Florida State to find success, while Dilfer's defense utilized complex, NFL-style blitz schemes to get to Bobby Petrino's offense.
On the offensive side, a lot of Arkansas' success will come down to Green, who has had an up-and-down start to his career in Fayetteville.
He should have a big day on Saturday with the Razorbacks leading the nation in SportsSource Analytics' big-play metrics, a measure of Rushing and Passing EPA.
Auburn ranks outside the top 100 in on-target rate allowed and allowing explosives in standard downs, so Green should be able to connect with Andrew Armstrong and Isaiah Sategna for some big plays.
The Tigers have been vulnerable on early downs defensively, so don't be surprised to see Petrino dial up some deep shots on first or second down.
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview: New Plan Needed
Auburn faces its fair share of challenges heading into Week 4, particularly at the quarterback position.
Brown, the newly minted-starter, has shown limitations that may restrict Auburn's offensive versatility. His arm strength is reminiscent of Bo Nix and hampers the team’s ability to execute long downfield passes.
With a chunk of the offense taken away, expect the Tigers to run a heavy amount of RPO with running back Jarquez Hunter, who racked up 152 yards and a score on the ground in Brown's inaugural start last week.
However, leaning on Hunter against Arkansas may not lead to success. The Razorbacks' biggest weakness comes in the secondary, where they rank 86th in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 129th in coverage grading, per PFF.
Meanwhile, Arkansas ranks top-15 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and held one of the nation's best backs in Oklahoma State's Ollie Gordon II to 2.9 yards per carry.
Defensively, big plays will remain a concern. Auburn ranks just 85th in Defensive Passing Success Rate, so if Green has time to throw, he could put points on the board early and often.
Arkansas vs Auburn Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas and Auburn match up statistically:
Arkansas Offense vs. Auburn Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 15 | 20 | |
| Pass Success | 24 | 85 | |
| Havoc | 80 | 76 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 56 | 26 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 34 | |
Auburn Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 4 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 106 | 69 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 73 | |
| Quality Drives | 38 | 72 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 109 | 20 |
| PFF Coverage | 129 | 43 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 42 | 9 |
| Middle 8 | 46 | 28 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.3 (30) | 23.3 (11) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (75) | 52% (80) |
Arkansas vs Auburn Pick & Prediction
As Arkansas prepares to clash with Auburn, the Razorbacks hold the advantage.
With its communication issues sorted and its defensive coordinator back, Arkansas defense is set to make substantial adjustments. This won't be the same unit that gave up 27 points to UAB a week ago.
On the other side, Auburn will need to overcome both internal challenges and an invigorated Arkansas defense.
However, given the Razorbacks' advantages in terms of creating the big play against what should be a relatively lackadaisical Auburn defense, expect Arkansas to light up the scoreboard.
Arkansas is simply in a better spot here on both sides of the ball. While a wager above the key number of 3 would be ideal, the Razorbacks are the side.
Pick: Arkansas +2.5
How to Watch Arkansas vs Auburn Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Arkansas vs Auburn Betting Trends
Arkansas has landed 66% of the tickets and generated 79% of the money.
The over has taken 37% of the bets and 41% of the cash.
Arkansas vs Auburn Weather
