The Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) and Iowa State Cyclones (10-2, 7-2) meet in the 2024 Big 12 Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Arizona State has been on a roll to close out the season, winning 5 straight games, including a 49-7 shellacking of Arizona in an in-state rivalry game last week.
Iowa State, meanwhile, has bounced back with 3 straight wins after falling to Texas Tech and Kansas in back-to-back weeks in early November.
Arizona State enters as a -2 favorite with the over/under sitting at 49.5.
Let's take a look at our Arizona State vs. Iowa State picks and college football predictions for the Big 12 Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7.
Big 12 Championship Odds, Spread for Arizona State vs. Iowa State
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
- Spread: Arizona State +1 · Iowa State -1
- Over/Under: 50.5 Total Points
- Moneyline: Arizona State ML +100 · Iowa State ML -120
By Pete Ruden
We have a true underdog story in the 2024 Big 12 Championship.
Arizona State — which was picked to finish last in the conference this season — and Iowa State — which won 10 games for the first time in program history — meet in Jerry World with a spot in the College Football Playoff on the line.
The Sun Devils have been guided by a fiery young head coach in Kenny Dillingham and an animal of a running back in Cam Skattebo.
On the other side, Iowa State has kept it steady under veteran head coach Matt Campbell, while the conference's best scoring defense aims to provide a blockade against Skattebo and Co.
Both sides have had ups and downs this season. Arizona State has taken losses to teams it knows it can beat, while Iowa State fell victim to two teams that got hot at the right time and played some of their best games of the season.
Which underdog story will prevail on Saturday in Arlington?
We polled 10 members of our college football staff to get their takes on the Arizona State vs. Iowa State spread and total — and we threw in a team total just for good measure.
Big 12 Championship Picks, Predictions, Best Bets
Big 12 Championship Spread
Our Spread Pick: Arizona State -2
By Joshua Nunn
Arizona State has ripped through the season’s second half, winning five straight en route to the Big 12 Championship game.
Our staff has been impressed with the Sun Devils. They also have the advantage this week.
They should own the trenches in this matchup. Although top wideout Jordyn Tyson has been ruled out for Saturday, the Sun Devils should grind out a win by leaning on Cam Skattebo.
Iowa State struggles to stop the rush, allowing 174 rushing yards per game at five yards per carry. The Sun Devils rank 22nd nationally in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate, while Iowa State ranks 97th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
I assume the Iowa State front seven will load the box and try to key in on the ground game, but I still think the Cyclones wear down in the second half.
Iowa State has produced some solid offensive performances behind Rocco Becht, who has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns, mainly to his two 1,000-yard wideouts, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
But Arizona State’s secondary is strong. The Sun Devils have 14 interceptions on an eye-popping 45 pass break-ups. They rank fourth nationally in EPA per Pass allowed and seventh in Passing Downs Explosiveness allowed.
While the sack and tackle-for-loss numbers aren’t as absurd, the Sun Devils create plenty of pressure, ranking third nationally in Havoc.
The Sun Devil defense is underrated.
Big 12 Championship Over/Under
Over 49.5 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 49.5 | 3 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 49.5
By Joshua Nunn
While not unanimous, our staff leans heavily toward the over.
Arizona State’s offense is aggressive and effective at the start of games. The Sun Devils have scored 25.3 first-half points per game over their past three.
Meanwhile, the past six Iowa State contests have eclipsed 50 points.
Arizona State ranks 25th nationally in Success Rate, and Iowa State is prone to allowing chunk rushing plays. Skattebo should have a monster day, and he could also make some plays in the passing game.
Iowa State continues to get into the red zone, generating a whopping 55 red-zone opportunities on the season. Meanwhile, Arizona State ranks 123rd nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Arizona State has built massive leads in the first half of its past three games, but it has also let teams back into those games. We could see a high-scoring back-and-forth affair deep into the second half of the Big 12 Championship game.
Big 12 Championship Team Total Bet
Iowa State Team Total Over 23.5 (Play to 24 at -120 or 24.5 at -105)
Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht has consistently performed his best in big games, and I don’t see that changing on Saturday.
The Cyclones have scored 32.5 points per game over their past four, and they should put up points against an average Arizona State defense.
Becht has two extremely reliable receivers on the outside, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, and both should consistently win on the perimeter against the Sun Devil cornerbacks.
Iowa State also ran the ball for 187 yards last Saturday against Kansas State, which signals the Cyclones can produce a balanced attack against the Sun Devils.
I think this game will feature plenty of big plays on both sides, leading to more possessions for the Cyclones, making it easier for Matt Campbell’s squad to eclipse its 23.5-point team total.
In what should be a fun, back-and-forth game for the Big 12 title, give me the Cyclones to put up plenty of points, going over their total and likely securing the victory along the way.
