The Utah State Aggies take on the USF Bulls in Tampa, FL. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Utah State is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. The total is set at 162.5 points.
Here’s my Utah State vs. USF predictions and college basketball picks for December 4, 2025.
Utah State vs USF Prediction
My Pick: Utah State -1.5 (Play to -4.5)
My Utah State vs USF best bet is on the Aggies to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Utah State vs. USF Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 162.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| S. Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 162.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- Utah State vs USF spread: Utah State -1.5
- Utah State vs USF over/under: 162.5 points
- Utah State vs USF moneyline: Utah State -140, USF +120
Utah State vs USF College Basketball Betting Preview
Utah State Basketball
Utah State is 35th in KenPom and sits at 7-0 overall, but it nearly lost to Montana State last weekend. The Aggies and Bulls have one mutual opponent (VCU). The Rams lost to Utah State and handled USF with ease.
The Aggies found a perfect running mate for Mason Falslev in former SEC guard MJ Collins Jr. Collins dropped 40 in a win over Davidson during Feast Week, and he's averaging 21 points per game. Although Collins is the go-to guy, Falslev is second on the team with 13.5 points on 54% shooting.
That brilliant guard play is why Utah State is 35th in offensive efficiency. It shoots 60% from inside the arc (24th nationally) and 36.2% from deep (87th).
Don't sleep on the Aggies' point guard play, either. Drake Allen is a steady showrunner, posting 7.5 assists to just 2.2 turnovers per game. Behind him, freshman Eli Perryman adds another ball-handler off the bench.
Defensively, Utah State is more stable than South Florida. The Aggies are 55th in defensive efficiency, and they force turnovers at a 22% clip. They also defend the rim at a high level, holding opponents to 45.8% shooting from inside the arc.
They've struggled to defend the perimeter, as opponents shoot 33% from deep.
The good thing is that South Florida's biggest weakness is shooting 3s. Count that as a boost for Utah State.
USF Basketball
South Florida is off to a shaky start to the Bryan Hodgson era. He entered with lofty expectations, but the Bulls lost all four of their games to top-75 opponents — three of which by eight points or more.
The Bulls play a very up-tempo style, ranking 12th in KenPom's adjusted tempo. They'll regularly pressure to force turnovers (22.8% turnover rate), and the hope is that it'll help the Bulls' athletic roster find clean looks in transition.
Hodgson is a branch off the Nate Oats tree, and just like his former boss, his teams like to let it fly from deep. The issue this year is South Florida is a bad shooting team, connecting on 32% from deep.
It starts with the three starting guards. Wes Enis, a Division II transfer, was supposed to be a huge impact guy. Instead, he's averaging 13 points per gameon 33% shooting and 30% from deep.
One of the few holdovers from last season is CJ Brown. The sophomore guard is a blur moving down the court, but he's 3-of-17 from deep this year.
And the classic "good shooter who doesn't shoot it well" is Joseph Pinion, as he's 33% from deep.
The best player on the roster is Josh Omojafo, who plays a small-ball four role. He's a terrific driver, gets to the line a ton and connects on 36% of his 3s.
South Florida struggles on defense, ranking 103rd in defensive efficiency. The stout turnover rate is promising, but when the pressure doesn't turn into a takeaway, it leads to a clean look from deep.
Opponents shoot a jarring 37% from deep versus the Bulls, which makes every game a high-scoring one.
Utah State vs. USF Betting Analysis
My pick here is on Utah State to cover the small 2.5-point spread. KenPom gives the Aggies a five-point edge, and I expected the line to be a bit closer to the -4/-5 range.
What have the Bulls shown to prove they can hang with a team of Utah State's caliber? To me, nothing is the answer.
South Florida can't shoot, and I don't see it becoming a good shooting team overnight. If South Florida can't shoot, I'm not sure where the scoring comes from.
The only way to get to this Aggies defense is by shooting, and this isn't the team to expose that.
My Pick: Utah State -1.5 (Play to -4.5)
