The UNC Tar Heels take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in Atlanta, GA, in the CBS Sports Classic. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on CBS.
UNC is favored by -4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. Ohio State prediction and college basketball picks for December 20, 2025.
UNC vs. Ohio State Odds, Spread, Pick
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
My Pick: Ohio State +2.5 or Better
My UNC vs Ohio State best bet is on the Buckeyes to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNC vs Ohio State NCAAB Betting Preview
UNC Basketball
UNC’s defense is solid, but its biggest weakness matches up with Ohio State’s strength. The Tar Heels allow opponents to shoot 42.3% on 2s, but they struggle against teams that move the ball and score in rhythm.
Ohio State’s 56.7% assist rate on made field goals works well against UNC’s issues with ball movement-heavy offenses.
Another key factor is turnovers, which could quietly decide the game. UNC ranks 352nd in defensive turnover rate at 13.6%, meaning it doesn't put much pressure on the ball.
UNC’s offense is a top-30 mark, but a lot of that comes from getting to the foul line. Ohio State’s defense is much better at avoiding fouls than the average opponent UNC sees, as it ranks 117th in free-throw rate allowed.
If the Heels can’t live at the stripe, their efficiency dips meaningfully.
On the plus side, they do get Seth Trimble — who's been out since November 7 — back from injury.
Ohio State Basketball
Ohio State’s offense is truly elite, with an adjusted efficiency ranking of 39th in the country. The Buckeyes don’t just score; they beat you in multiple ways. Their 58.5% effective field goal rate is 13th nationally, which is exactly what you want when betting on a 'dog catching points.
When the Buckeyes can run their offense in the half-court without pressure, their physical play and shot-making stand out. This gives an already efficient offense the freedom to run its plays without much disruption.
Defensively, Ohio State isn't going to completely shut UNC down, but it doesn't have to. The Buckeyes just need enough stops, and the stats suggest they can get them.
There’s another important factor that often gets overlooked in these matchups: experience and composure. Ohio State’s players average 2.37 years of experience, almost twice as much as UNC’s 1.16. In close games, the veteran impact can make a difference on late possessions.
There’s a bit of a concern with UNC’s height advantage, but I expect a lot of the Heels' scoring to come from outside of the paint, where they specialize in ball movement.
Star point guard Bruce Thornton is going to cause a ton of headaches for the Heels, especially with his terrific passing ability.
If you’re concerned about UNC having more athleticism, keep this in mind: Ohio State’s 2-point defense (49.7%) and excellent free-throw shooting (77.9%, 19th) are exactly what you want from a team that covers spreads late. The Buckeyes don’t give up easy points on defense, and they make their free throws.
UNC might be the more explosive team, but Ohio State is the more balanced and reliable side to back here as a 'dog. They score efficiently, protect the ball, shoot free throws well and won't be overly outmatched in the talent department.
UNC vs. Ohio State Betting Analysis
UNC is the bigger name and has more offensive talent, but when you look closer, the Buckeyes actually fit what you want in an underdog, especially with their efficiency, balance and the ways they can challenge the Heels.
The Heels’ recent opponents have been weak, so their results aren't convincing enough to suggest they're an elite team.
Yes, they're expected to get Trimble back into the fold for this one, but we don't know if he'll be a full-go and/or if he's rusty after not playing since November 7.
My Pick: Ohio State +2.5 or Better
