The No. 16 UMBC Retrievers play the No. 16 Howard Bison in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday, March 17. Tip-off is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on truTV.
UMBC is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -111. Meanwhile, Howard is the underdog at +1.5 with a moneyline of -108. The over/under sits at 142.5 total points.
Here’s my UMBC vs. Howard prediction and college basketball picks for Tuesday, March 17.
UMBC Retrievers vs Howard Bison Prediction, Pick
My Pick: UMBC +1
My UMBC vs Howard best bet is on UMBC to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UMBC vs Howard Odds, Betting Line, Point Spread
| UMBC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +104 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | -111 |
| Howard Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -128 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | -108 |
- UMBC vs Howard Spread: UMBC -1.5, Howard +1.5
- UMBC vs Howard Over/Under: 142.5
- UMBC vs Howard Moneyline: UMBC ML -111, Howard ML -108
UMBC vs Howard NCAA Tournament Kalshi Odds
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UMBC vs Howard NCAA Tournament Pick, Preview
This is about as strong a 16-seed play-in game as we can get. UMBC and Howard both ran roughshod over their respective conferences and have been white-hot down the stretch. UMBC has won 12 in a row, the second-longest streak in the nation. Howard is 14-2 in its last 16 contests.
UMBC should not be in this play-in game – its resume deserved a pass from Dayton, but alas. The Retrievers put on a show in the America East Championship, burying Vermont behind DJ Armstrong Jr.’s 33 points.
UMBC has absolute gamers for guards, plenty of playmakers, and a handful of shooters.
The Retrievers' elite ball handling is a major key against Howard in this game. UMBC ranks in the top 30 in the nation in turnover rate, and Howard thrives on forcing turnovers to kickstart its transition offense.
The Retrievers can also combat Howard on the glass – they’re top-15 in the nation in defensive rebounding rate, which can negate the Bison’s deadly rebounding attack.
And lastly, UMBC plays without fouling, meaning Howard won’t get its usual million free throw attempts, another lifeline of scoring.
Look for the Retrievers to attack in the open floor, though Howard is one of the nation’s top transition defenses. In the half-court, UMBC will attack the paint, and it ranks top-25 nationally in field goal attempt rate in the paint and 12th in paint field goal percentage.
Howard leads the country in paint field goal percentage defense, but it does allow a lot of looks on the interior and at the rim. The Bison have the size edge, but UMBC is scrappy.
On the other end, Howard’s size will be its greatest asset, though as mentioned above it’ll be challenged on the glass. Bryce Harris will be the best player on the floor, a versatile wing that UMBC will surely struggle to stop.
The Bison’s offense, though, isn’t pretty. They get a lot of buckets in transition, but they tend to slow down in the half-court. It’s a heavy cutting offense that needs the line and glass to score.
UMBC does not allow transition — it gets back on defense instead of hitting the offensive boards. Howard will have a difficult time getting into its rhythm and finding the shots it wants.
This will be a banger of a play-in game. UMBC’s ability to throw cold water on all of Howard’s preferred methods of scoring and usual game advantages should allow it to keep the Bison at bay.
Guard play will send UMBC over the top as it marches towards a date with Michigan.
My Pick: UMBC +1
