The UConn Huskies take on the Providence Friars in Providence, RI. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on CBS.
UConn is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. The total is set at 145.5 points.
Here are my UConn vs. Providence predictions and college basketball picks for March 1, 2025.
UConn vs Providence Prediction
My Pick: UConn -6.5 (Play to -8.5)
My UConn vs Providence best bet is on the Huskies spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UConn vs Providence Odds, Spread, Pick
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 145.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
| Providence Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 145.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
- UConn vs Providence spread: UConn -6.5
- UConn vs Providence over/under: 145.5 points
- UConn vs Providence moneyline: UConn -300, Providence +240
- UConn vs Providence best bet: UConn -6.5 (Play to -8.5)
My UConn vs Providence College Basketball Betting Preview
UConn Basketball
Connecticut's up-and-down season ticked upward in a stress-free midweek win over Georgetown. Keeping that momentum going into March is critical for a Huskies team that hasn't won more than two straight games since an eight-game win streak that lasted from November to early January.
The Big East schedule has been a game of whack-a-mole for Danny Hurley's club, constantly dealing with injuries, cold shooting streaks, crumbling defense and close-call losses.
The hope for this season lies at the feet of freshman star Liam McNeeley.
He missed a stretch of games with a high ankle sprain. Since returning, he's been spottier playing in an elevated role as the go-to guy. His 38-point performance at Creighton was a flash of brilliance. In other games, he's been streaky or less aggressive. In the win over Georgetown, he was steady and reliable.
Also of note, veteran wing Alex Karaban has been anything but reliable.
Over his past 11 games, a significant sample size, he's shooting just 17% from outside the arc. He's a career 37% shooter who made 43 of his first 100 3-point attempts this season. His ice-cold month has hampered the entire UConn offense.
Even worse, the UConn defense is to blame for the majority of the Huskies' issues this season. Ranked 112th nationally and allowing 109.2 points per 100 possessions in Big East play, the UConn defensive effort fouls too often, allows open shots and doesn't seal off the defensive glass.
No matter Hurley's efforts, this team won't make noise at Madison Square Garden or in the Big Dance without real changes on that end of the court.
Providence Basketball
After treading water for a while, the Providence Friars have started to sink.
Some of that has come via roster issues. Christ Essandoko has been battling illness, depleting Providence's frontcourt depth. Corey Floyd Jr. was the victim of a hit-and-run car accident, missing a few games before returning and posting an 0-for-5 shooting night with no points and six turnovers against Marquette.
Worst of all, defensive playmaker Jabri Abdur-Rahim was lost for the season with an injury.
The Friars have been noticeably worse without Abdur-Rahim, allowing opponents to score with ease in his absence. In his minutes on the floor this season, Providence allows 91.9 points per 100 possessions. Without him, that number leapfrogs to 115.1 points per possession.
That's the difference between a top-five defense in the nation and a defense ranked outside the top 315 in college basketball. Providence has gone 1-5 since losing him for the year, allowing four of its last five opponents to top 120 points per 100 possessions.
The Friars offense is far too sloppy to make up for those misgivings on the other end. Providence is the most turnover-prone team in the Big East and went the entire month of February without a game committing single-digit turnovers.
UConn vs Providence Betting Analysis
This line is far too low given the state of the Providence roster. Floyd is back and Essandako is a role player who could return for this game, but Abdur-Rahim is a major factor.
Without him, Providence is a completely different team with a much lower ceiling.
The ceiling was already limited, as we've seen throughout the Friars' schedule. Providence has gone 1-8 against the KenPom top 50, with the lone win coming back on Dec. 3. In that game, Providence shot its best 3-point percentage of the season (55%), while BYU shot one of its worst (28%).
Without that insane shooting disparity, this team doesn't have the talent on either end of the floor to compete with top level teams. UConn has had its struggles, but is still leagues better than Providence.
You may worry about the Huskies winning and covering this one on the road, but Connecticut has been ferocious on the road, winning at Creighton, Marquette and Texas this season.
Beyond that, Providence's home court is not what it once was. Ed Cooley went 60-49 ATS and 70-39 SU in Big East games as the head coach of the Friars. Kim English is just 7-10 ATS and 8-9 SU in that same situation.
There's just nothing to suggest Providence can compete here. I like UConn at this number and will even explore some escalating alternate lines.
