The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, AR. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Arkansas is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks for January 3, 2026.
Tennessee vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread, Pick
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | ML |
+2.5 -110 | 157.5 -115 / -105 | +125 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | ML |
-2.5 -110 | 157.5 -115 / -105 | -150 |
My Pick: Arkansas -2.5 (Play to -4)
My Tennessee vs Arkansas best bet is on the Razorbacks to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tennessee vs Arkansas NCAAB Betting Preview
Just how good is Tennessee? That's one of the biggest questions heading into SEC play. At times, the Vols' toughness and defense made them look like the best team in the league.
They beat Louisville by 21 and out Houston'd Houston. However, a pair of losses to Cuse and to Kansas without Darryn Peterson stick out like a sore thumb.
The issue is the Vols' offense, an all-too familiar story in the Rick Barnes era. Tennessee lacks offensive firepower, sitting 34th in offensive efficiency.
The Vols atone for some of the inefficient shooting by grabbing 46% of their misses, the top mark in the country. And if we learned anything from Houston in past years, sometimes dominating the glass can be the most efficient form of offense.
They shoot 57% from inside the arc, which ranks 61st nationally. However, the Vols shoot just 34% from downtown.
Tennessee only has one reliable scorer, and that's Ja'Kobi Gillespie. The stud point guard leads Tennessee with 17.8 points per game while shooting 35% from deep.
The next best scoring guard is Bishop Boswell and Amaree Abram with five points per game. That goes to show Tennessee's lack of offensive talent.
Nate Ament is the one guy who can solve some of the offensive woes. The five-star recruit was a five-star recruit for a reason. At 6-foot-10, he plays like a guard and can shoot, but he's hitting just 37% from the field and 28% from deep this season.
So far, Ament is more harmful than helpful to Tennessee.
Defense is still the name of Tennessee's game, as it ranks 12th in defensive efficiency. The Volunteers limit teams to 45% shooting from inside the arc and 28% from 3 — both of which rank top-30 nationally.
Arkansas won't be scared to play a top-15-level squad, as it already has four such games under its belt. In those games, the Razorbacks are 1-3 with a win over Louisville.
The Razorbacks are fantastic on the offensive end, ranking 18th in offensive efficiency. And that shouldn't come as a huge stunner since Arkansas has two young stud guards in Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas.
Acuff is the frontrunner to notch SEC Player of the Year honors, as he's averaging 18 points and 6.6 rebounds per game while shooting 44% from deep. The young baller will have a full plate against Gillespie, but he's up to the challenge.
Arkansas specializes in two areas on the offensive end. The main one is shooting, as the Razorbacks drill shots at a 39% clip from deep. The other is limiting turnovers, which Arkansas does almost better than anyone, turning it over at a 13% clip.
For me, having a floor-stretching four-man in Trevon Brazile is the difference-maker. He might not have the bruising toughness like Tennessee bigs, but he's an elite athlete who can drill shots.
I'd love to see Thomas get rolling here. He's more of a bench gunner than a playmaker like Acuff. In Arkansas' last game, Thomas broke a skid of three straight single-digit scoring games with a 28-point performance in a win over James Madison.
If I had to pick one key for Arkansas, it would be controlling the glass. Arkansas ranks just 193rd in defensive rebounding rate, and as I touched on, Tennessee rebounds almost half of its misses.
Tennessee vs. Arkansas Betting Analysis
I'll take Arkansas here. Tennessee scares me on the offensive end. It just doesn't have the firepower to beat a team like Arkansas on the road.
Plus, the Razorbacks have the pace to make Tennessee uncomfortable. The Vols want to slow things down, playing at the 241st-slowest tempo in America.
On the flip side, Arkansas is 33rd in adjusted tempo.
The high-flying Hogs will have a fun night in Fayetteville.
My Pick: Arkansas -2.5 (Play to -4)
