The TCU Horned Frogs take on the Iowa State Cyclones in Ames, Iowa. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Iowa State is favored by 16.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1350. The total is set at 137.5 points.
Here are my TCU vs. Iowa State predictions and college basketball picks for February 8, 2025.
TCU vs Iowa State Prediction
My Pick: LEAN under 138.5 (Play to 136)
My TCU vs Iowa State best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
TCU vs Iowa State Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 137.5 -110 / -110 | +800 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 137.5 -110 / -110 | -1350 |
- TCU vs Iowa State spread: Iowa State -16.5
- TCU vs Iowa State over/under: 137.5 points
- TCU vs Iowa State moneyline: Iowa State -1350, TCU +800
- TCU vs Iowa State best bet: LEAN under 138.5 (Play to 136)
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I like the under in this matchup.
My Pick: LEAN under 138.5 (Play to 136)
TCU vs Iowa State College Basketball Betting Preview
Author's Note: Milan Momcilovic is expected to return today for Iowa State. I'd likely pass on the under with him back, and would be more inclined to back the Cyclones.
The situational spot screams Iowa State.
The Cyclones desperately need a bounce-back win following three straight ugly losses, including a 19-point home defeat to lowly Kansas State.
They’re also due for some positive game-to-game shooting regression, with their past two opponents shooting a combined 50% from 3 (19-for-38).
Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs are due for a letdown loss following back-to-back home wins over Colorado and West Virginia. They’re also a horrific road team, ranking 345th nationally in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric.
It’s also a brutal offensive matchup for the Frogs.
It’s always tough to score on Iowa State’s defense. But the way to beat the Cyclones is with efficient spacing and catch-and-shoot creation, as their ball-screen blitz and post-denial over-rotations force secondary perimeter creation.
TCU ranks 14th in the Big 12 in ShotQuality’s Spacing, Shot Selection and Shot Creation metrics, creating just eight unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers per game (12th in the Big 12, per Synergy).
The Frogs can’t develop good jumpers and lack solid shot-makers, which partially explains why they’re shooting under 30% from 3 in conference play.
Instead, the Frogs are a near-proximity, second-chance, rim-reliant offense, and that’s not how you beat T.J. Otzelberger’s defense.
However, I’m not convinced Iowa State can work in the half-court.
TCU is similar to Iowa State, as it has an aggressive ball-screen defense, with the Frogs using the versatile center Ernest Udeh Jr. as a hard-hedging big man.
As a result, they’ve been a borderline elite ball-screen coverage defense (.84 PPP allowed, 74th percentile, per Synergy), which will be critical against Tamin Lipsey and the Cyclones’ downhill pick-and-roll offense.
Iowa State loves cutting off those downhill sets, and TCU’s cutting defense is brutal (11 cutting points per game allowed, last in the Big 12, per Synergy).
But I’m seriously worried about the Cyclones’ offense without Milan Momcilovic, who's still out following his hand surgery.
The offense has been a mess since he went down, and his floor-spacing and shooting will be sorely missed against TCU’s aggressive defense, which allows plenty of weak-side catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Therefore, I like the under.
Nine of the past 10 Frogs games have stayed under the closing total, as it’s hard to cash an over when one team can’t shoot. TCU won’t generate any at-the-rim opportunities against Iowa State, and I’m banking on it continuing to miss shots against the Cyclones’ defensive structure.
Meanwhile, seven of Iowa State’s past 10 games have stayed under, as the Cyclones are still an elite defensive team but have major offensive issues without Momcilovic on the court.
If Iowa State forces enough turnovers and obliterates TCU’s horrific transition defense (1.19 PPP allowed, second percentile, per Synergy), the under is likely cooked.
But I’ll take my chances, especially considering I make the total closer to 135.
