The Seton Hall Pirates take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Piscataway, NJ, on Saturday. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
Rutgers is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a 133.5-point over/under.
Here are my Seton Hall vs. Rutgers predictions and college basketball picks for December 14, 2024.
Seton Hall vs Rutgers Prediction
My Pick: Over 133.5 (Play to 134)
My Seton Hall vs Rutgers best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Seton Hall vs Rutgers Odds, Lines, Pick
| Seton Hall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 133.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 133.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
- Seton Hall vs Rutgers spread: Rutgers -11.5
- Seton Hall vs Rutgers over/under: 133.5 points
- Seton Hall vs Rutgers moneyline: Rutgers -800, Seton Hall +550
- Seton Hall vs Rutgers best bet: Over 133.5 (Play to 134)
My Seton Hall vs Rutgers College Basketball Betting Preview
This should be an ugly one.
What else is there to say about Seton Hall? Shaheen Holloway is a brilliant defensive mind who can’t scheme a coherent offense to save his life.
The Pirates are still generating poor shots — primarily by bashing the rim with a group of poor finishers and scrappy offensive rebounders — and their turnover issues have been severely exacerbated now that Kadary Richmond plays in Queens.
Typically, that spells trouble against a Steve Pikiell defense, which is usually excellent at the rim.
However, Rutgers’ ball-screen coverage, rim protection and defensive rebounding have nosedived this season.
Much of that is due to the offseason loss of Clifford Omoruyi, and much of it is due to Dylan Harper’s inability to defend the pick-and-roll (1.17 PPP allowed on 30 possessions, sixth percentile).
On the flip side, Rutgers has traded defense for offense, given how good Harper is as a ball-screen creator — he’s scoring 23 points per game for a reason. But Holloway’s dribble-drive denial defense is a tough matchup, and it generally forces opponents into catch-and-shoot jump-shot creation, which Rutgers can’t do.
Then again, Penn State runs a similar ball-screen coverage to Seton Hall in its aggressive hedge, and Harper carved up the Nittany Lions like a Thanksgiving turkey.
Seton Hall plays at a plodding pace. However, the Pirates can’t avoid transition defense because they keep turning it over. Even worse, they can’t stop anyone in transition (1.1 PPP allowed, 19th percentile).
As a result, you can speed them up. For example, they turned the ball over 15 times against Oklahoma State, and the Cowboys turned those into 25 points — including 20 fast-break points — in an 85-76 battle that flew over the closing total of 133.5.
Rutgers isn’t as aggressive with its on-ball pressure. Still, Harper, Bailey and the athletically gifted Scarlet Knights adore running the open court, ranking in the top 50 nationally in transition possessions per game.
At first, you might think betting the over in a Seton Hall-Rutgers game is crazy.
However, the Harper-Bailey duo has made the Scarlet Knights significantly better on offense and markedly worse on defense, so I think the market is under-projecting Scarlet Knight totals — for example, their games are 6-4 to the over this year.
I suspect Harper can manage another superhero performance against another aggressive ball-screen coverage defense. And Seton Hall should generate plenty of at-the-rim and second-chance opportunities against a Rutgers defense struggling to prevent either.
More critical to this handicap, Rutgers should be able to make Seton Hall run, and the Scarlet Knights will take advantage of the Pirates' brutal transition defense.
I think there is sneaky potential for pace and points in this matchup, so I will be the contrarian and bet the over.
