The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Auburn Tigers in Birmingham, AL. Tip-off is set for 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Auburn is favored by 9 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here are my Purdue vs. Auburn predictions and college basketball picks for December 21, 2024.
Purdue vs Auburn Prediction
My Pick: Auburn -8
My Purdue vs Auburn best bet is on the Tigers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs Auburn Odds, Spread, Pick
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 148.5 -110 / -110 | +325 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 148.5 -110 / -110 | -425 |
- Purdue vs Auburn spread: Auburn -9
- Purdue vs Auburn over/under: 148.5 points
- Purdue vs Auburn moneyline: Auburn -425, Purdue +325
- Purdue vs Auburn best bet: Auburn -8
My Purdue vs Auburn College Basketball Betting Preview
Purdue Basketball
Even without Zach Edey, Purdue remains a threat to win the Big Ten. That is in large part to the "Big Three" of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn. That trio has fueled the Boilermakers to an 8-3 start and a current residence in the KenPom top 25.
Smith is the engine. A maestro in ball screens, he leads the entire country in assist rate and has proven to be a lethal jump shooter, both off the catch and off the bounce. He bends defenses, as he is fully capable of punishing teams that overhelp – or don’t send enough help.
Kaufman-Renn has made a star turn while taking over as Purdue’s main post threat. Always among the leaders in post-up frequency, Purdue currently lands 26th nationally in rate of “Post-Ups Including Passes,” per Synergy.
Kaufman-Renn is responsible for 88.5% of Purdue’s post-ups, and he’s a lethal scorer on the block, racking up 1.14 points per possession (79th percentile nationally). When Smith needs a rest, TKR can serve as the Purdue offensive fulcrum.
Loyer is the third bullet in Matt Painter’s chamber. Loyer is a perfect third threat, as he buries catch-and-shoot jumpers at an elite clip and continues to evolve into a bigger and bigger weapon off the bounce. His 50% 3-point shooting draws immense defensive attention.
Sorting out the rotation beyond that troika has been Painter’s biggest challenge. Five other players have started games, and towering freshman Daniel Jacobsen’s early season-ending injury threw a wrench in the plan.
Veterans Myles Colvin and Camden Heide appear to have secured the final two spots (started the last six games), but their offensive games are limited.
Purdue’s defense has been an Achilles heel thus far. Smith and Loyer are not an overly athletic duo, and Kaufman-Renn is not a rim protector at all (0.3% block rate, lower than the 6-foot-0 Smith).
Colvin and Heide are impactful on the wing and reserve big men Caleb Furst and Will Berg provide a little resistance inside, but Purdue’s best lineups are geared towards outscoring its opponents.
Auburn Basketball
For my money, Auburn is and has been the best team in the country. Apologies to Tennessee, Duke, Florida, etc., but the Tigers have amassed a 10-1 record against the country’s 11th-toughest schedule, per KenPom.
And per Bart Torvik, they lead the nation in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), a new metric on the NCAA Tournament Committee’s team sheets that measures how a squad has performed against its schedule, relative to a standard bubble-caliber team.
The frontrunner for National Player of the Year has fueled that start. Broome is a ludicrously productive big man who can score inside or out, dominate the glass and protect the rim. He has united with Dylan Cardwell to give Bruce Pearl a true two-big lineup, one that has made Auburn a terror at the rim on both ends of the court.
Unsurprisingly, the Tigers rank highly in 2-point percentage on offense (seventh) and defense (11th), per KenPom. That’s especially impressive when considering the strength of Auburn’s schedule.
Broome’s status is in question for this game, however. His shoulder popped out of place two minutes into Tuesday’s win over Georgia State, knocking him out for the remainder of the game.
It does not require surgery, but he did begin rehab immediately. Reports are that he did travel with the team and could play, but it’s far from a certainty.
Without him, Auburn becomes a little bit more conventional with Chaney Johnson and Chris Moore filling in as more traditional power forwards. Per CBB Analytics, Auburn is +7.5 points per 100 when on the court; that’s a solid number, but not crippling when he’s out. For example, Cardwell is +13.9.
The Tigers can certainly still thrive if Broome misses a short stint.
They are still loaded, though, with the perimeter quartet of Tahaad Pettiford, Miles Kelly, Chad Baker-Mazara and Denver Jones all having standout seasons.
Their creation and shooting have helped Auburn climb to the No. 1 spot in KenPom’s offensive rankings.
Purdue vs. Auburn Betting Analysis
With the spread sitting at Auburn -7 as I write this, it appears the Broome absence is clearly priced into this line. KenPom makes the line Auburn -12 with both teams at full strength.
This game is likely being played in front of a decidedly pro-Auburn crowd in Birmingham. Whether that’s worth giving Auburn a small home court bump is up to the handicapper, but in my view, I think that (plus the much easier travel) is worth a small nudge on my line.
The spot may favor Purdue somewhat given that the Boilermakers have been stewing over a loss to another SEC squad, Texas A&M, for a week. Theoretically, that should give the Boilers a slight added edge out of the gates.
From a matchup sense, Purdue’s outstanding offense can look slightly more mortal against teams that don’t sit in drop coverage. Smith absolutely destroys that approach. Auburn has the athletes to switch 1 through 5 – even Cardwell can move – which may force Purdue to play through TKR.
For those looking to back player props, TKR could have some value if Broome sits.
Ultimately, I think this line has over-corrected for Broome’s potential absence. If he doesn’t play, I still like the Tigers, but if he takes the court, this line is a monumental bargain.
Auburn is far from a one-man team, and the Tigers’ backcourt could send a message if its athleticism shows out against Smith and Loyer.
With Broome in, I’d bet this up to -10. Without him, I’d take it up to -8.
