The Oklahoma Sooners take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on Saturday. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Oklahoma is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a 153-point over/under.
Here are my Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State predictions and college basketball picks for December 14, 2024.
Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State Prediction
My Pick: Oklahoma State +4 or Better
My Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State best bet is on the Cowboys spread, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State Odds, Lines, Pick
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 153 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 153 -110o / -110u | +165 |
- Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State spread: Oklahoma -4.5
- Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State over/under: 153 points
- Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State moneyline: Oklahoma -200, Oklahoma State +165
- Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State best bet: Oklahoma State +4 or Better
My Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State College Basketball Betting Preview
We have to sell Oklahoma.
The Sooners are 9-0, but they have played a laughably easy schedule (345th-hardest nationally) and have needed some luck to get there, shooting 37% from 3 while opponents have shot 28%.
During their three-game Battle 4 Atlantis championship run, the Sooners shot 30-for-74 (41%) from deep while Providence, Arizona and Louisville combined to shoot 24-for-84 (28%) from beyond the arc.
The regression monster is hiding out somewhere near Norman.
Sooners point guard Jeremiah Fears is the real deal, and the team is generating great shots.
But the Sooners' defense is a problem, as they are getting eaten alive inside the arc (53% shooting allowed, 240th nationally), at the rim (1.16 PPP allowed, 282nd nationally), against post-up sets (.94 PPP allowed, 269th nationally) and on the glass (31% offensive rebounding rate allowed, 241st nationally).
They are also allowing a high volume of 3s (43% 3-point rate allowed, 277th nationally), so their defensive metrics could fall off a cliff once a few more drop.
Therefore, it seems like the perfect time to catch two possessions with their in-state rival.
Oklahoma State might not exploit Oklahoma’s overvalued 3-point defense — and its half-court offense is pretty pathetic — but the Pokes live at the rim (22 at-the-rim field goal attempts per game, 86th percentile) and play volleyball with the offensive glass (34% offensive rebounding rate, 86th nationally), which bodes well in this matchup.
This could be a big game for the Abou Ousmane-Marchelus Avery frontcourt duo, as it’s averaging over 12 paint points and four second-chance points per game.
Additionally, I think the Pokes have a slight two-way turnover advantage.
Both teams are disruptive on the defensive end. However, Oklahoma State has a slightly lower offensive turnover rate and is an excellent press offense (1.3 PPP, 95th percentile), which will be huge against Porter Moser's press-happy defensive scheme.
Oklahoma State head coach Steve Lutz runs an aggressive ball-screen coverage defense that thrives on havoc, attempting to generate easy transition buckets from turnovers. Fears is uber-talented, but he’s also turnover-prone (3.7 per game at a 23% rate), which could sink the Sooners on Saturday.
If Oklahoma State can win the rebounding and turnover battles, the Pokes will undoubtedly win the shot volume battle, which will go a long way in keeping this rivalry game close for 40 minutes.
Of course, Oklahoma State’s aggressive ball-screen coverage will leave it vulnerable against Oklahoma’s floor spacing and weak-side shooting, and we could get burnt if the Sooners shoot 40% from deep again.
But I’ll take my chances against an overvalued squad due for a tough loss, especially when Bart Torvik and our Action PRO Model project this spread within two points.
