The Missouri Tigers take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, AR. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Arkansas is favored by 10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 161 points.
Here’s my Missouri vs. Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks for February 21, 2026.
Missouri vs Arkansas Prediction
My Pick: Missouri Team Total Under 75.5
My Missouri vs Arkansas best bet is on the Tigers point total under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Missouri vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -115 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
- Missouri vs Arkansas spread: Arkansas -9.5
- Missouri vs Arkansas over/under: 161 points
- Missouri vs Arkansas moneyline: Missouri -400, Arkansas -550
Missouri vs Arkansas College Basketball Betting Preview
Missouri Basketball
Missouri comes in off a statement win at home against Vanderbilt on Wednesday. The Tigers led by as many as 21 points in the second half and really played excellent defense in holding Vandy to just 40 points halfway through the second half.
Missouri has been hot over the last three weeks of the season, boasting wins over Mississippi State, Texas A&M and the Commodores, and is making a valid case to the NCAA Tournament Committee. This next stretch of games is crucial for the Tigers, starting here on Saturday.
The offense is led by Mark Mitchell, who averages 17 points per game, while Jayden Stone chips in 15. Jacob Crews is shooting 46% from 3-point range, and Missouri is a strong offensive rebounding team that should create second-chance opportunities.
Defensively, Missouri has an above-average SEC defense that has struggled to defend the outside shot. Opponents are nailing 36% of their 3-point attempts against the Tigers, and the defense doesn't apply much pressure or force turnovers.
Arkansas commits the second-fewest turnovers in the country, and I expect Missouri to have to make a few gambles here and ramp the pressure up to be competitive on the road.
Arkansas Basketball
Arkansas has put together a solid season and is currently a five-seed in the NCAA Tournament, according to bracketology outlets.
John Calipari’s Razorbacks don’t get talked about as much as other teams in the SEC, but the resume is filled with quality wins, and Arkansas plays complementary basketball on both ends of the floor. How the Razorbacks finish the season will be a strong indicator of how far this team can go in the NCAA Tournament.
The offense has been incredibly efficient, and Darius Acuff Jr. leads it in scoring, averaging 22.3 points per game while averaging 6.2 assists per contest. Meleek Thomas scores 15, and Trevon Brazile and Billy Richmond III round out the double-figure scorers. The Hogs are athletic, and this offense is dangerous both inside and outside.
The defense has been excellent while avoiding fouls, and the Hogs are 20th nationally in blocks. This team can stress you and create tough trips down the floor, often resulting in low-percentage 3s.
Missouri struggles at times, turning the ball over, and this defense might be able to apply some pressure and create fast-break opportunities.
Missouri vs. Arkansas Betting Analysis
This line opened up Arkansas -10.5 with a total set at 161.5. I'm going to bet the Missouri team total under at 75.5.
Arkansas has slowed its pace significantly over the last month of this season, as its average pace is down about four possessions per game since January 20th. Missouri operates slow, ranking 244th nationally. I think we see Missouri really try to avoid going up and down with the Hogs.
I trust the Arkansas defense to make it tough for Missouri to get good looks for Mitchell and Shawn Phillips down low. Missouri wants to procure paint touches and will have to work methodically to do so. Arkansas does well to protect the rim, and we should see tough contested shots, many of which will not go in.
Missouri wants to play slow, and we should see a ton of long possessions for the Tigers. I actually also think that after a double overtime loss on Wednesday at Alabama, we might see Arkansas play a bit slower in this matchup as well.
I don't think we'll see enough possessions in this one, and I expect the Missouri offense to struggle on the road. At any number 75 or higher, I want to take the under for the Missouri team total.
My Pick: Missouri Team Total Under 75.5 (Play to 74.5)
