The Memphis Tigers take on the Virginia Cavaliers in Charlottesville, VA. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Memphis is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 129 points.
Here are my Memphis vs. Virginia predictions and college basketball picks for December 18, 2024.
Memphis vs Virginia Prediction
My Pick: Virginia +4 or Better
My Memphis vs Virginia best bet is on the Cavaliers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Memphis vs Virginia Odds, Spread
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 129 -110 / -110 | -185 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 129 -110 / -110 | +155 |
- Memphis vs Virginia spread: Memphis -4
- Memphis vs Virginia over/under: 129 points
- Memphis vs Virginia moneyline: Memphis -185, Virginia +155
- Memphis vs Virginia best bet: Virginia +4 or Better
Memphis vs Virginia NCAAB Betting Preview
Memphis seems like too predictable of a team.
After losing by 14 in the Maui title game against Auburn, the Tigers bounced back and beat Louisiana Tech by 10. They followed that up with a letdown double-digit loss against Arkansas State before beating top-25 Clemson on the road.
Coming off that overtime road victory on Saturday, I’m banking on Memphis zig-zagging back into a letdown.
Unfortunately, I also have to back the virtually lifeless Cavaliers.
Everyone suspected the Cavaliers would struggle through the non-conference season following Tony Bennett’s surprising retirement.
Still, it’s been ugly for the Hoos, who — save for a 10-point neutral-court win over Villanova — have failed every major test with flying colors (22-point loss to Tennessee, 25-point loss to St. John’s, 18-point loss to Florida, 12-point loss to SMU).
But Penny Hardaway-led teams will play up-and-down to competition, and Virginia has some matchup advantages worth exploring.
First and most importantly, Memphis is a shaky ball-handling squad that makes constant half-court mistakes in a read-and-react system — the Tigers rank 289th nationally in turnover rate, including 337th in non-steal turnover rate.
Virginia doesn’t pressure the ball much, but the Cavaliers still run a relatively disciplined pack-line defense that will allow and capitalize upon the opponent’s mistakes.
The pack-line scheme also packs it in, surrendering opposing 3s in favor of denying the paint and rim. That should be a tough matchup against a Memphis team that ranks sub-300th nationally in 3-point rate, preferring to attack the interior.
As an aside: Memphis is shooting a scorching hot 44% from deep, but I suspect some negative regression should hit. ShotQuality projects the Tigers should be shooting closer to 39% based on the “quality” of attempts.
Otherwise put, they could be overvalued.
The Tigers leverage their uber-athletic backcourt (Tyrese Hunter and PJ Haggerty) to attack in transition, and they leverage the versatility of Dain Dainja to attack on the low block. They also live at the line because they pressure the rim so much (top-15 nationally in free throw rate).
However, Virginia runs at the slowest pace in the nation, viciously denying transition opportunities. The Cavaliers allow the ninth-fewest fast-break points nationally (5.2) on very low efficiency (.90 transition PPP allowed, 79th percentile).
The pack line is also excellent at post-denial (.56 PPP allowed, 97th percentile). Blake Buchanan and Jacob Cofie should be a tough matchup for Dainja.
Finally, Virginia never fouls, ranking sixth nationally in free-throw rate allowed.
On the other end of the court, Virginia’s blocker-mover offense still generates a decent number of open 3s, as the Cavaliers rank top-100 nationally in 3-point and Open 3 rate while canning 38% of their triples.
They should generate those opportunities against Memphis, which ranks sub-300th nationally in 3-point rate allowed and surrenders nearly 11 unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers per game, the 49th-most among D-I squads.
Virginia is wholly outmatched in this contest, especially from an athletic perspective, and I don’t like the Cavaliers’ long-term outlook.
Still, I think Penny Hardaway is a poor coach, and the Tigers are due for a letdown performance against the underwhelming-but-ever-disciplined two-way play of the Cavaliers.
If Virginia denies the rim, defends in transition and hits open 3s, the ugly home ‘dog should keep this game close.
